Week 3 NFL Trend Report: Will Belichick's Run of Dominance Continue Against the Jets?

Week 2 was another trendy one in the NFL as Overs went 13-3! That’s in stark contrast to what we saw in Week 1 where the Under hit in 12 of 16 games. We’re seeing some swings early in the season, but that volatility should settle down as the season progresses.

Elsewhere, you can take that home-field advantage and shove it as road teams are cashing against the spread tickets at 63.3% thanks to a 19-13 outright record. However, don’t expect this pattern to continue deep into the season as wear-and-tear should have more of an impact on visiting teams.

Before we get into the NFL betting trends, I’ll remind you once again to never back trends blindly. Always incorporate some additional research into your NFL picks, and if you see value when it comes to NFL odds, hammer away!

Let’s get into the Week 3 action!

Best NFL Week 1 betting trends

Giants vs 49ers

The trend: The 49ers are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 home games (regular season and playoff games).

The San Francisco 49ers have been laying the smackdown at home since November 15, 2021. They’ve gone 14-1 SU during this tear with the 14 wins coming by an average of 16.2 points. With San Francisco favored by double-digits over the Giants, it should be noted that many of these games weren’t even close, as 10 of them were decided by more than 14 points.

See all Giants vs. 49ers trends for Week 1.

Titans vs Browns

The trend: The Titans are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog while the Browns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite. 

One of these teams plays up to the competition while the other team plays down to it. The Tennessee Titans play ugly and that keeps them in a lot of games. This underdog trend extends to 19-10-1 ATS since the start of the 2019 season, with 16 outright wins coming in the 30 games. If you like the pattern to continue, you can grab Tennessee at +3.

See all Titans vs. Browns trends for Week 1.

Colts vs Ravens

The trend: The Ravens have gone Under in 10 of their last 11 home games.

Eight of these 11 games failed to reach the 40-point mark while four of them didn’t even get to 30 points. Up against an Indianapolis Colts team that could be without its starting quarterback, the potential for a low-scoring game is clearly there. It has very little to do with this specific matchup, but these teams have a history of low-scoring games, as eight of the last nine between them have gone Under. The total for this matchup is 44 points. 

See all Colts vs. Ravens trends for Week 1.

Falcons vs Lions

The trend: Nine of the Lions’ last 10 home games have seen at least 51 combined points scored.

The Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions combined for 68 points in Detroit last week, which was a continuation of what we saw in Detroit in 2022 where the games at Ford Field saw an average combined score of 58.4. The total for this matchup is at 46 points and the Lions will be the best offense that the Falcons have seen since the Chargers (Week 9 of last season). 

See all Falcons vs. Lions trends for Week 1.

Chargers vs Vikings

The trend: These teams are a combined 35-11-1 to the Over after a loss since 2020.

A bit of a weird one here, and maybe coincidental, but with both the Los Angeles Chargers and Minnesota Vikings coming off a loss, it’s certainly worth considering. They’ve combined to hit the Over in 76.1% of games following a defeat, but in just 50% of games after a win in this same span. Each squad profiles as an Over team with talented offenses and garbage defenses, so it should come as no surprise that this game has the highest total of the week at 54 points. 

See all Chargers vs. Vikings trends for Week 1.

Broncos vs Dolphins

The trend: Miami went Under in 7 of 8 home games last season.

It would be completely fair to assume that the Miami Dolphins offense performed better on its home field last year, but that’s not entirely the case. Tua Tagovailoa started in six of these eight games, which saw mixed results for the offense: two 30+ point games and three games with 20 or less. The avalanche of Unders last season actually had more to do with Miami’s defense, as they only allowed 15.5 points per game at home, compared to 30.9 on the road. The total for Sunday’s game vs. the Denver Broncos is one of the highest of the week at 48.

See all Broncos vs. Dolphins trends for Week 1.

Patriots vs Jets

The trend: The Patriots have won 14 straight games vs. the Jets.

This seems especially relevant given the short 2.5-point spread favoring the New England Patriots. Nine of the wins in this 14-game streak were by double-digits, while the trend extends to 23-2 in the last 25 games between these teams. Also in New England’s favor is that Zach Wilson has thrown seven interceptions and has a 50.6 QB rating in four games against them. Expect ugliness in this one.

See all Patriots vs. Jets trends for Week 1.

Saints vs Packers

The trend: The Saints have gone Under in 11 of their last 12 games.

So far this season, New Orleans Saints games have seen combined scores of just 26 in Week 1 vs. the Titans and 37 in Week 2 vs. the Panthers. The average combined score in these 12 games is just 30.7 thanks to seven of the games seeing 30 points or less. Bettors shouldn’t expect an Aaron Rodgers vs. Drew Brees-type shootout in this one.

See all Saints vs. Packers trends for Week 1.

Texans vs Jaguars

The trend: Jacksonville is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a home favorite.

Underdogs have thrived in North Florida over the past few seasons. The Houston Texans have had tremendous success when they play on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, going 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog. This includes wins in each of the past two seasons as six-point and seven-point dogs. The Jags are one of the biggest favorites of the week at 9.5 points — moneyline parlay bettors beware! 

See all Texans vs. Jaguars trends for Week 1.

Bills vs Commanders

The trend: The Commanders have gone Under in 19 of their last 24 home games.

The Washington Commanders combined for 36 points in their home opener, which falls in line with what we saw in their home games last season (average combined score of 36.8). This matchup has a total of 44.5 and it should be noted that during this home Under tear, all 10 games with a total of 44.5 or higher have gone Under. Coincidentally, the Buffalo Bills have cashed the Under in eight of their last nine on the road.

See all Bills vs. Commanders trends for Week 1.

Panthers vs Seahawks

The trend: Seattle is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when favored by more than a field goal.

The Seattle Seahawks come into this one favored by six points after a thrilling overtime victory over the Lions, while the Carolina Panthers look like one of the worst teams in the NFL. That said, Seattle has been in this position against plenty of bottom feeders recently and ended up playing in many tightly contested games. A correlated trend has seen Seattle go 9-18 ATS after a win since the start of the 2020 season.

See all Panthers vs. Seahawks trends for Week 1.

Bears vs Chiefs

The trend: The Bears are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog.

We’re only two weeks into the season and the Chicago Bears are already a complete and total embarrassment. Their reward for their pathetic start is a trip to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Super Bowl favorite Kansas City Chiefs. This game features the biggest spread of the week with KC coming in at -12.5. The Bears were a double-digit dog three times during this 6-15 ATS slide and failed to cover in all three games, losing by 17, 15, and 35.

See all Bear vs. Chiefs trends for Week 1.

Cowboys vs Cardinals

The trend: Dak Prescott has thrown 17 interceptions in his last 16 road games (including the playoffs).

Dak Prescott has yet to throw an interception this season, but he might be due in Week 3. While the Arizona Cardinals defense has not performed well thus far, they have managed to pick off a pass in each of their first two games. The Cards also already have nine sacks on the season which could make Prescott uncomfortable. Dak had 38 pass attempts in Week 2 and could be ripe for the picking in Arizona.  

See all Cowboys vs. Cardinals trends for Week 1.

Steelers vs Raiders

The trend: The Over is 17-7-1 in Raiders home games since they moved to Las Vegas.

There have been plenty of fireworks in Las Vegas Raiders home games since moving to Sin City, with the Over hitting at a 70.8% clip during their three seasons there. Their defense got cooked at home in 2022 where they allowed the third most points at 26.1. This led to five separate games surpassing the 50-point mark.

See all Steelers vs. Raiders trends for Week 1.

Eagles vs Commanders

The trend: The Eagles have scored first in 18 of their last 22 games.

We’ll go back to the well with this one after it hit last week against the Vikings, and this bet is currently available at -150 over at DraftKings. If you like the Philadelphia Eagles to get off to a good start and maintain it throughout the opening quarter, DraftKings also has them very reasonably priced at -0.5 (+100) on the first quarter spread. 

See all Eagles vs. Commanders trends for Week 1.

Rams vs Bengals

The trend: The Rams are 16-4 SU in their last 20 games played in September.

Sean McVay has done an excellent job of getting his team out of the gates strong. Before the season, the thought of the Los Angeles Rams winning this game outright was laughable, but now, not so much thanks to an impressive start and a beat-up Joe Burrow. If you’d prefer to play it safe and hammer the Rams on the spread, they’ve also been a strong bet as an underdog in September, going 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in this spot.

See all Rams vs. Bengals trends for Week 1.

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