The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
Last week was another winner for us in the touchdown prop world for us, as we finished 2-2 for +1.03u and now sit up 1.54u on the season. Just like in Week 1, we were close to a bigger week but that Jared Cook (+234) TD got erased by poor officiating. Onto Week 3.
NFL Week 3 touchdown props
- Kenny Golladay anytime TD +165 (1 unit)
- Deebo Samuel anytime TD +110 (1 unit)
- Austin Ekeler anytime TD +105 (1 unit)
- Christian Kirk anytime TD +250 (1 unit)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 3 TD props
Kenny Golladay anytime TD (+165 at FanDuel)
Can we talk about this Atlanta secondary? It has conceded eight total passing TDs through two weeks, which is the most in the league. Tom Brady threw for five TDs last week while Jalen Hurts tossed another three in Week 1. The Falcons aren’t giving up huge plays, as their 10.2 yards per reception against is middle-of-the-pack, but they are allowing a 71 percent completion percentage and have given up a red zone TD in seven of eight attempts.
Atlanta will see Kenny Golladay and the Giants in Week 3. The newest New York receiver hit the headlines last week as he got into it on the sidelines with his QB, Daniel Jones, but it was later revealed that he was directing his frustrations at OC Jason Garrett. It all seems to be water under the bridge but we like Jones to look Golladay's way more because of it.
Golladay is easily the most talented receiver on this roster and is the only receiver out of their Top 3 that has been held scoreless. We’ve seen the squeaky-wheel scenario too many times and know that in the NFL, top-end talents can forget about frictions by getting the ball. It just so happens that Golladay’s situation aligns perfectly with one of the worst pass defenses in the league.
At +165, we have no problem laying some coin and one unit on a receiver who is fourth in yards in 20-plus yard receptions since 2018 and also has the fourth-best contested reception percentage since 2019. Golladay closed at +180 against a solid Denver secondary in Week 1, making Week 3's price solid.
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+110 at PointsBet)
If anyone watched the Week 2 Monday nighter, they would know Green Bay CB Kevin King is a liability. Pro Football Focus has him graded as the 83rd-worst cornerback (out of 102) and he finished last year ranked 99th out 121. King moved inside to the slot last week versus the Lions, where head coach Matt LaFleur was actually impressed — even though King gave up three catches on four targets and 61 yards. That’s good news for us because now he’ll likely go back to the slot corner position this Sunday versus the 49ers.
Samuel saw a team-high nine targets last week against the Eagles and turned it into eight catches for 93 scoreless yards with a long catch of 40. Samuel leads the team in targets by a huge amount (11) and has nearly three times more yards than the next closest Niners pass-catcher... and he also runs out of the slot in 3-receiver sets.
The Packers have allowed seven total passing TDs this year and Samuel is in a perfect spot to get his second score of the year versus King and a suddenly terrible Green Bay passing defense. Samuel was already a high-volume receiver so this matchup is a no-brainer — despite the price of +110 after closing at +135 a week ago. It’s a 1.0 unit play for us.
Austin Ekeler anytime TD (+105 at FanDuel)
Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens ran for three TDs versus the Chiefs last week on 6.1 YPC. That was after the Browns ran for four TDs against the Chiefs in the opener on 5.9 YPC. This week, it’s the Chargers’ turn to rack up those rushing scores.
Ekeler leads the team in red-zone rushes at seven, he had nine of the Chargers’ 14 RB rushes last week, AND he finished second in passing targets at 10. He has been practicing this week, which is great news as injuries have been a big issue with Ekeler.
There is no need to get cute with an LA running back choice in this matchup, as the Chargers don’t have a clear-cut backup with Justin Jackson and Larry Rountree fighting for scraps. His anytime TD can be found at +110 and considering he was priced at -110 versus Washington in Week 1, this is a great number and worth one unit.
Ekeler is more of a threat to score via the pass than the rush, so if you’re loading up on Ekeler stock, make sure you grab an “anytime TD or Over 0.5 TD” prop and not an Over 0.5 rushing TD prop. This game features the second-highest total on the board in Week 3 and there should be plenty of opportunities for Ekeler to cash.
Christian Kirk anytime TD (+250 at PointsBet)
It’s no surprise that the Jaguars’ passing defense has struggled to begin the 2021 season. They finished the 2020 season with the 31st-ranked DVOA pass defense and have surrendered four passing TDs to Tyrod Taylor and the Texans as well as Teddy Bridgewater and the Broncos — not exactly the best passing QBs in the game.
Things will get exponentially more difficult for the lifeless Jaguars as Kyler Murray and the Cardinals come to town.
Only the Buccaneers have scored more passing TDs (nine) than the Cardinals (seven) over two weeks. Jaguars rookie slot corner Tyson Campbell got embarrassed in Week 1, giving up five receptions on five targets for 80 yards and a score in just 26 coverage snaps. He gave up another three catches on four targets last week versus Denver. This week will be his biggest test as a professional.
Christian Kirk has taken 69 of his 78 snaps out of the slot this year and turned that into eight catches on nine targets for 135 yards and two scores and his 16.9 YPR leads the team. Kirk doesn’t need red-zone targets to score and could be a big-name receiver by season end.
There are a lot of mouths to feed in this Arizona passing attack, especially with the emergence of Rondale Moore, but Kirk has a great matchup on paper and is definitely worth +250 after closing last week at even money on some books.
DeAndre Hopkins has also missed a lot of practice this week and any missed snaps would only benefit Kirk in his lopsided Week 3 matchup.
Season to date: 3-5 +1.54 units
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