We're onto Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season and continue to bring you our favorite NFL parlay picks every week. This week we're focusing on player props around the league, counting on one of the NFL's best red zone threats, a pair of tailbacks, and a tight end with a chance to enjoy a breakout week.
Week 4 NFL parlay picks
- Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+115) + Najee Harris Over 4.5 receptions (-154) = +255
- David Montgomery Over 72.5 rushing yards (-113) + Noah Fant Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115) = +252
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+115) + Najee Harris Over 4.5 receptions (-154) = +255
Josh Allen to score a touchdown (+115)
There are many things the 2021 Houston Texans struggle to do, including stopping their opponents inside their own 20-yard line. Opponents have scored on 66.67 percent of red-zone trips against Houston this year, a mark better than just eight defenses.
Maintaining contain on opposing QBs has been of particular issue for the Texans' red zone defense thus far, with Baker Mayfield scampering in from five yards out in Week 2 and Sam Darnold doing the same in Week 3 before adding a second from the goal line.
This week, Houston's woes will be put to the test against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Allen has taken the mantle from Cam Newton as the NFL's most lethal dual-threat QB near the goal line, scoring on 15 of his 19 career carries from inside the five-yard line. Allen got into the endzone for his first rushing score of the season a week ago and will have plenty of chances to get his second in Week 4 against a lowly Houston team.
Najee Harris Over 4.5 receptions (-154)
Here’s another knowledge dart for you: Ben Roethlisberger’s arm has reached the 2015 Peyton Manning zone. Between waning arm strength and a banged-up wide receiver corps, Roethlisberger didn’t even try to fake it last week, targeting tailback Najee Harris a running back record 19 times, with Harris hauling in 14 of those.
With most aging quarterbacks, we see their arms deteriorate in the latter parts of the season as the weather gets colder. Roethlisberger going full check-down in a September game says the situation isn’t going to get better. It certainly won’t in Week 4, with Chase Claypool ruled out with a hamstring injury in a matchup with a Packers defense getting pressure at the 12th-highest rate in the NFL.
Harris has topped four catches in two of three games this year, and Green Bay has allowed at least five catches to tailbacks in every game this season. Like Big Ben with a hint of pressure, count on Harris in the passing game.
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: David Montgomery Over 72.5 rushing yards (-113) + Noah Fant Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115) = +252
David Montgomery Over 72.5 rushing yards (-113)
For as feisty as the Lions have been in 2021, they are a talent-poor team and one that has struggled to stop the run early in the season. Detroit's 26th-ranked DVOA run defense has given up an average of 114.3 yards per game on the ground, and with a slow-footed linebacker corps and little talent up front, there's no reason to believe immediate improvement is on the horizon.
That provides an opportunity for a Bears running game — and David Montgomery — to get going, after two disappointing games following an electric Week 1 showing from Chicago's lead tailback. Chicago's offensive line is a genuine problem, but Montgomery's two poor games have come against the second- and fifth-ranked run-stopping defensive lines (the Bengals and Browns), per Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards metric. Lanes should be wider and space more easily afforded at the line against the Lions, and Montgomery will always eat up available yardage.
Chicago must depend on Montgomery a little more this week, too, with Justin Fields staying under center. The Bears failed Fields a week ago, forcing the rookie to operate out of the pocket consistently and take a beating. Play fakes, moving pockets, and handoffs will all surely see an uptick this week, and with Montgomery taking 46 of 54 RB carries in 2021, he'll stand to benefit.
Noah Fant Over 37.5 receiving yards (-115)
Before managing to completely quiet T.J. Hockenson in Week 3 (a lack of necessary focus elsewhere helps), the Ravens had been giving opposing tight ends a field day. The season began with Darren Waller snagging 10 balls for 105 yards and a TD, then followed by Travis Kelce's seven-catch, 109-yard, one-score day.
Next up for Baltimore is Hockenson's former college teammate and another ascending stud at the position, Noah Fant. Though Fant's start has been fairly quiet, with 12 catches, 110 yards, and a score, he draws a great matchup here. Compounding the Ravens' early-season struggles versus tight ends is that injuries have struck in the secondary. Safety DeShon Elliott and corner Anthony Averett didn't practice all week and are questionable, while other starting safety Chuck Clark just went on injured reserve.
Not only is Baltimore shorthanded but the injuries may prevent it from committing corner Jimmy Smith to Fant, as it has done with Smith against tight ends previously. Fant and the Broncos' offense can capitalize, with Fant going over a modest receiving yards total.
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