If you follow the NFL with any regularity, you'll have heard the talking points by now that scoring is down and quarterback play is at a low not seen in over a decade. That's why my best NFL Week 4 parlay targets a trio of Unders, highlighted by what should be a rockfight between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Indianapolis Colts.
Sunday night's Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens game should buck the low-scoring trend, however, and I've got a solid three-leg SGP for that September 29 tilt to round out my free NFL picks.
NFL Week 4 parlay picks
- LAR/CHI u41 + JAX/HOU u46 + PIT/IND u40 = +596
- BUF/BAL o45.5 (alt. total) + J. Allen o229.5 pass yds + D. Henry anytime TD = +305
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Best NFL Week 4 parlay
Rams vs. Bears Under 41
Jaguars vs. Texans Under 46
Steelers vs. Colts Under 40
There are a couple of low numbers here, so if you're looking to make some NFL Week 4 teaser picks, that wouldn't be a bad insurance policy at +140 for a 6-point teaser.
Let's start with Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears, where a banged-up Rams squad heads to the Midwest to take on a Bears team that's still finding its way on offense.
I don't have faith that Caleb Williams & Co. — who have averaged a league-worst 3.7 yards per play over three weeks — will light up even L.A.'s suspect stop unit.
As for the Rams, whose depth continues to be tested on both sides of the ball, they'll be asked to move the chains vs. a Chicago defense ranked 11th in yards per play despite playing two of its first three games on the road.
The Houston Texans' defense has been a sore spot in terms of being beaten over the top, but Trevor Lawrence has been terrible under center for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Only the Colts can claim a worse completion percentage as a team, and the Jags are only beating five teams in yards per attempt.
Lawrence has taken an alarming four sacks per game, and the same can be said for C.J. Stroud. While the Jags do not excel at pressuring the QB, they do boast the fourth-lowest average depth of target against.
With the Texans' running game in shambles, look for Stroud to settle for short passes while the Jaguars post another middling offensive effort.
Regression figures to come for the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense sooner or later after padding their stats vs. a rusty Kirk Cousins, a green Bo Nix, and an injured Justin Herbert, but I don't think it will happen vs. the wildly inaccurate Anthony Richardson.
It's also worth noting that Pittsburgh is second in yards allowed per rush, so don't expect Jonathan Taylor to carry the Indianapolis Colts offense either.
The Indy defense won't "wow" anyone, ranking a perfectly mediocre 16th in yards allowed per play, but you don't have to be elite to shut down Justin Fields.
Best NFL Week 4 SGP
Bills vs. Ravens Over 45.5 (alt. total)
Josh Allen Over 229.5 passing yards
Derrick Henry anytime TD
The Baltimore Ravens are allowing the fifth-highest yards per attempt in the NFL, and that spells trouble for this unit vs. Josh Allen's big arm. This matchup will play into the first two legs of my Week 4 SGP.
The Buffalo Bills are third in yards per attempt thanks principally to Allen, who hit 230+ passing yards in 12 of 17 regular season games last year and two of three in 2024. While Allen's 75% completion rate through three games is unsustainable based on his career mark of 63.5%, it's not as though the Ravens are elite in that area either, ranking 19th in completion percentage against.
The Bills are somewhat short of perimeter talent, ergo running back James Cook ranking second in receiving yards, but the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to tailbacks this year after finishing middle-of-the-pack in that area a season ago.
It usually takes two to tango when it comes to hitting an Over, and I have faith that Lamar Jackson & Co. will play their part.
The run-happy Ravens draw a plum matchup with Buffalo's 22nd-ranked stop unit by yards allowed per rush. I expect Jackson and Derrick Henry to keep the chains moving all game long.
Speaking of Henry, I'll round out my SGP with another visit to the NFL Week 4 player props market and add an anytime touchdown for the stalwart halfback.
Henry has been cash-money through three games in this area, tallying at least one score in each contest. The Ravens' reliance on him in this game should pay off in the form of six points for the Alabama product.
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