Week 4 of the NFL schedule feels like a turning point.
Week 4 bet now, bet later picks
- Titans (+1.5) at Dolphins: Bet Now
- Giants at Cowboys (-5): Bet Later
- Steelers at Colts (Under 40): Bet Now
- Seahawks at Lions (Over 48): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Titans (+1.5) at Dolphins: Bet Now
The Miami Dolphins could be down to recently signed Tyler Huntley or... gulp... Tim Boyle at quarterback when they host the Tennesse Titans on Monday Night Football in Week 4.
With Tua Tagovailoa on the IR (concussion) and Skylar Thompson leaving the loss to Seattle with a “pretty painful” rib injury, Mike McDaniel is scrambling. Luckily, he has an extra day to get his QB quandary figured out.
Unluckily, Miami faces a Tennessee defense doing good things through the first three weeks. The Titans are 11th in EPA allowed per play, own the fourth-lowest success rate allowed per dropback (37.2%), and have seven total sacks.
Some books are already moving this spread to Tennessee -1 but a few books have the Fins as the favorites. If you don’t like Miami's QB situation, bet the Titans with the extra points now.
Check out my Titans vs. Dolphins predictions for more analysis.
Titans +1.5 (-118 at TonyBet)
Giants at Cowboys (-5): Bet Later
The Dallas Cowboys saved a little face with a late surge in the loss to Baltimore, but the sky is falling in Arlington and the Cowboys have a short week to figure things out. They visit the rival New York Giants in the Thursday Night Football odds.
The G-Men are coming off their first victory of the season, scoring a 21-15 win at Cleveland as 6.5-point pups. New York’s defense came up big, with eight sacks and just 217 yards allowed on 16 first downs. Offensively, the Giants hummed with Daniel Jones and Malik Nabers connecting for big plays.
With one NFC East team tumbling and the other on the rise, this TNF spread is of course on the move. Dallas opened as big as -5.5 and is now as low as -4 at some shops just hours after opening.
The Cowboys have owned their division rivals in recent years. Dallas is 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS against New York, going back to 2017, including a 6-1 SU and ATS mark at MetLife Stadium in that span. If you’re banking on this trend, don’t rush to bet Dallas. See how low it will go for TNF.
Read my full Cowboys vs. Giants predictions ahead of kickoff tonight.
Steelers at Colts (Under 40): Bet Now
Let’s just make the Under an automatic lean for every Pittsburgh Steelers game from here on out. Pittsburgh stayed below the total for the third straight contest, holding the Chargers to only 10 points on 10 first downs in Week 3.
Mike Tomlin’s defense ranks No. 1 in EPA allowed and travels to Indy in Week 4, facing an Indianapolis Colts club that was outgained and had just 15 first downs against the Bears on Sunday. Yet, thanks to three turnovers from Chicago’s offense, was able to score 21 points. Anthony Richardson has six INTs already and now faces a ball-hawking Steel City stop unit.
As for Pittsburgh’s offense, it scored a season-high 20 points in the win over L.A. but also went 1-for-4 in the red zone. The Steelers could have a QB controversy on their hands heading into this matchup, given Justin Fields played OK but Russell Wilson could be healthy to go.
Some books are as low as 38.5 points on this total on Sunday night. Grab the highest total you can and bet the Under now.
Under 40 (-116 at TonyBet)
Seahawks at Lions (Over 48): Bet Later
One of two Monday Night Football matchups is a fun NFC affair with the Seattle Seahawks coming to the quick indoor surface of Ford Field.
The Detroit Lions offense looked a little better in Week 3, especially inside the red zone, but it does take on a Seahawks defense that's been transformed under head coach Mike Macdonald. That said, Seattle’s success has come against QBs like Skylar Thompson, Bo Nix, and Jacoby Brissett. Jared Goff & Co. is a big step up in offensive competition.
As for the Seahawks offense, it ironed out its own red zone woes in Week 3 and has big play potential with Geno Smith and his talented receivers should Sunday’s showdown turn into a shootout. Smith sees a significant uptick in output when playing indoors, watching his passer rating soar inside domes.
This total was 49 points on look-ahead lines and opened as high as 48.5 on Sunday night before the market shifted lower, dropping the number to as low as 47 O/U. If you like the Over in Motown, see if you can score this total below the key number of 47 points later in the week.
Not intended for use in MA.
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