NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 4: Waller Ravages Chargers on MNF

Through three weeks of NFL action, there's been no shortage of disappointments, surprises... and glorious NFL prop betting values to cash in on. As we have so far this season — and will continue to do so each week — we look into every one of those beautiful prop markets to uncover the week’s best team, player, and derivative prop bets.

We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. 

We’re hitting another guilty pleasure kicking prop, hitting a price drop with one of the league’s best pass-catching tight ends, and setting our watches to some Zach Wilson sacks.

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 4 of the 2021 NFL season.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Detroit Over 1.5 total field goals (-115 at bet365)
• Darren Waller Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
• Titans vs. Jets Over 5.5 total sacks (-115 at bet365)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Santoso Tolerant

The Chicago Bears’ defense doesn’t care who is playing QB, all it knows is that if it gives up 20 points, the Bears will likely lose — even against the lowly Lions.

Last week, the Bears held the Browns to a single touchdown in four red-zone trips and forced four field-goal attempts. In all, the Bears have allowed TDs in the red zone at a 44.44 percent rate, which is a Top-10 rate in the league. In Week 4, they get a Lions team that has had to abandon the kicking game thanks to some lopsided scores.

Detroit also has an 87 percent success rate in the red zone, which is unsustainable for a Jared Goff-led offense. Detroit has made only three field goals this year but facing a bad Chicago offense, this game should not get out of hand — and field position will be critical for a pair of teams struggling to win.

The Detroit kicking situation is as clear as mud with No. 1 kicker Austin Seibert still on the COVID list. Current kicker Ryan Santoso is 3 for 3 in relief and kicked a 52-yarder in the preseason. If the Detroit offense stalls out versus the Bears — and we think it will — Santoso’s number could be called more than once on Sunday.

This game's total has been dropping and there’s a 40 percent chance of rain. We could see some Detroit chip shots this weekend and at -115 for the Over 1.5 field goals, we’ll put it in the account.

PICK: Detroit Over 1.5 total field goals (best odds: -115 at bet365)

Occupy Waller Street

The Los Angeles Chargers host the Las Vegas Raiders as 3-point favorites on Monday night in a battle of two 3-0 AFC West squads. Derek Carr leads the league with 1,203 passing yards and was just named the AFC Offensive Player of the Month for September.

Carr has gained at least 375 yards and two TDs in each of the Raiders’ first three games and his No. 1 pass-catcher, TE Darren Waller, is due for a monster game after a pair of mediocre performances.

Waller leads the team in targets and although he hasn’t topped 70 yards in back-to-back weeks, he has still tied or led the team in targets in each game. A bigger week could be in the books for the tight end as the Chargers gave up 104 yards on seven catches to Travis Kelce in Week 3 and eight catches on nine targets to opposing TEs in Weeks 1 and 2. The books are discounting his yardage total thanks to just 109 yards over the last two weeks.

Waller and the Raiders played the Chargers in Week 15 last season with the Las Vegas TE coming away with a nine-catch, 150-yard performance.

Waller’s catch total is set at 5.5 and heavy on the tax at -172 but his receiving yard total is set at 67.5 yards, which is 10 yards fewer than it was in Week 3. Monday’s game has a total in the 50s and features two QBs who have looked like some of the better pocket-passing signal-callers in the league. We're expecting some heavy passing.

PICK: Darren Waller Over 67.5 receiving yards (best odds: -115 at FanDuel)

Sack to the Drawing Board

We are already riding the Over on Zach Wilson’s passing total of 225.5 yards versus the Titans, but we're also getting a great price on a sack total of 5.5, which is hard to say no to.

Wilson has been sacked into oblivion to begin his career. It hasn’t been as bad as Justin Fields in Week 3, but Wilson has been taking a beating for three straight weeks with a league-high 15 sacks.

Wilson took five last week versus the Broncos, four in Week 2, and six more in his NFL debut. The Jets’ O-line is a disaster, especially without blindside protector Mekhi Becton, who is out again this Sunday. The Jets have an 11.5 percent adjusted sack rate (31st) and allow pressure on 29 percent of plays. The Titans’ defense has just seven sacks on the year but is pressuring QBs at a 30.5 percent rate, fifth-highest in the league.

Wilson could cash this prop himself but Ryan Tannehill has also been taken down 10 times this year, which is the fourth-most in the league. The Titans’ O-line is giving up pressure at a 28 percent (27th) clip, while the Jets’ strength lies in a front seven that has six sacks and are getting pressure at the fifth-best rate in football.

Over 5.5 sacks at -115? Yes, please.

PICK: Titans vs. Jets Over 5.5 total sacks (best odds: -115 at bet365)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

James Run Jones

Daniel Jones may be one of the most underrated rushing QB in the league. Jones is currently third in QB rushing at 161 yards and finished the 2020 season between Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes. So when we opened up the prop markets and saw Jones sitting at 24.5 yards (opened at 22.5), a number he has topped in each game this year, we needed to shout it from the rooftops.

Jones has rushed at least six times in each game this year and is cruising to a 7.0 yards per carry mark. He has out-rushed Saquon Barkley in two of three games this season and faces a New Orleans defense that has seen plenty of pocket passers to open the year.

Jones’ weapons will be limited again heading into Week 4 as Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton have been ruled out. Jones will have to be a big part of the offense in order to pick up New York’s first win and if the Giants can get Jones involved — with some RPO with Barkley — it could open up some lanes with the defense overreacting to the running back.

PICK: Daniel Jones Over 24.5 rushing yards (best odds: -114 at DraftKings)

Tony! Toni! Toney!

As we mentioned above, the Giants will be without Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton versus the Saints’ No. 6 DVOA pass defense. Kenny Golladay is also dealing with an injury and had his snaps scaled back in Week 3.

Enter 2021 first-round pick Kadarius Toney.

Toney saw 66 percent of the snaps last week versus the Falcons and caught two of his three targets for minimal yards. He was second amongst NYG WR in snaps behind only Golladay. Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett may have to get the ball into the rookie’s hands as the team is lacking playmaking ability against a stout defense — with a rowdy Casear’s Superdome crowd behind it.

Toney has been lining up in the slot and could see nickel corner C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who is the weakest member of the NO secondary and has allowed completions on six of 10 targets to begin the season — he's graded better against the run than in coverage.

We’re going to avoid the yardage total on Toney but love the Over on his reception total, which sits at 2.5 and can be found as cheap as -130.

PICK: Kadarius Toney Over 2.5 receptions (best odds: -130 at FanDuel)

Yahoo! Sanders

The Buffalo Bills have outscored their opponents 78-21 over the last two weeks and enter their Week 4 matchup as 17-point favorites. One would think with Buffalo cruising to comfortable leads the Bills would lean on the run a bit more but OC Brian Daboll has called 77 pass plays to 63 runs since Week 2. Buffalo also sits second in the league in plays per game at 73.5.

With all this passing volume, three Buffalo receivers have over 190 yards on the season. Of those three, Emmanuel Sanders is leading the pack at 17.6 yards per catch. His volume isn’t as high as Cole Beasley or Stefon Diggs, but Sanders has seen at least six targets and topped 47 yards in each game this year.

Houston is giving up 11.5 yards per reception and gave up 126 yards on eight catches to Carolina’s D.J. Moore a week ago. If Buffalo gets up big, don’t expect it to slow down the pace. Sanders at 46.5 receiving yards is a great number considering his average total through three weeks is 45 yards and he’s coming off a 5/94/2.

PICK: Emmanuel Sanders Over 46.5 receiving yards (best odds: -115 at DraftKings)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Apologies to All

O.K., hear us out.

Zach Wilson is 1-2 O/U on his passing yards total to begin his NFL career, but he's also seen the Panthers, Patriots, and Broncos — which are all Top-5 DVOA pass defenses. Don’t get us wrong, Wilson has looked downright bad, but he’s thrown at least 33 passes in each game and now gets a Bottom-5 defense in Tennessee, who is giving up 227 yards per game to opposing WRs alone, which is a Bottom-3 number.

New York comes into the game as a 6.5-point home underdog and the recency bias is strong after getting blanked by a solid Denver defense at Mile High. The Jets are constantly playing from behind and rush the ball at the league’s second-lowest rate (20.2 rushes per game). The pressure Wilson faces is legit and Tennessee can get to the QB, but Carolina sacked Wilson six times in Week 1 — and he still topped 250 passing yards. The sacks are creating more yards in which Wilson can pass into.

Corey Davis has stepped into the Jets’ No. 1 receiving role and should be the most-targeted receiver for Wilson as he faces his former team. The Titans are allowing 7.8 yards per pass while Wilson is averaging 6.0 YPP, which gives us an average of 6.9 YPP.

At that number, Wilson would need 33 pass attempts to top his passing yard total of 225.5 yards. Wilson has attempted 33 passes in each of his three games. It may not be a pretty prop bet... but when nobody is giving this offense a chance, the math just tells us that we might find a little value against a weak defense. 

PICK: Zach Wilson Over 225.5 passing yards (best odds: -118 at BetMGM)

Market Baker

Kevin Stefanski will make his return to Minnesota Sunday when his Browns take on the Vikings as 2-point favorites. Minnesota is one of seven defenses allowing over 300 passing yards per game: Joe Burrow topped his passing yard total in Week 1 while Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson set season-highs in passing yards versus the Vikes in Weeks 2 and 3.

Baker Mayfield is 2-1 O/U on his passing yard total to begin the year and his yardage total has closed at above 260 yards twice. This week, against a bottom-tier defense, his passing total is set at 250.5.

He’s currently averaging 260 ypg, which includes a low-volume game versus Houston in Week 2. Minnesota has scored 63 points over the last two weeks and in addition to being competitive, could even force the Browns to play from behind if Kirk Cousins comes out hot — Minnesota averages 17 first-half points per game.

Mayfield will have plenty of time in the pocket as his O-line is allowing the lowest pressure rate in the league while the Vikes have the lowest QB knockdown per pass attempt rate at 5.3 percent. Opposing QBs are 3-0 O/U on their passing totals versus the Vikings this year, Odell Beckham Jr. is back and looked solid last week, leading the team in targets and yards and could see some coverage from Minny CB Bashaud Breeland — who is the worst-ranked CB in football, per Pro Football Focus.

Mayfield ranks fourth in yards per pass at 9.8 while Minnesota ranked 29th in yards per pass allowed at 9.2, meaning Mayfield would need just 26 pass attempts (at 9.6 yards per pass) to top his passing total. If the running game is working, it could open up the play-action — which could result in big gains.

PICK: Baker Mayfield Over 250.5 passing yards (best odds: -115 at DraftKings) 

Stay Home and Block

The Carolina defense has come roaring out of gates and surprised many with Phil Snow’s unit grading out as the No. 1-ranked defense, per Football Outsiders. What the Panthers have done against opposing running backs has also been noteworthy. They’ve had the benefit of playing the Texans and Jets, but the big-D in the C held Alvin Kamara to just 30 yards on 12 total touches — which included hitting the Under on both his receiving yards and reception totals.

Opposing running backs have just 54 receiving yards and eight catches versus the Panthers all season, with Kamara gaining nearly half of those. This is a fast Carolina defense that is giving up 48 TOTAL yards per game to opposing RBs and just 2.7 receptions.

Ezekiel Elliott has gotten his legs after a no-show in the opener, averaging 5.0 yards per carry since Week 2, but he’s only seen seven targets all year and has been losing snaps to Tony Pollard for two consecutive weeks. Ezekiel’s complement has also seen eight targets this season. The running game is working and the Cowboys are splitting the touches almost 60/40.

Elliott’s reception total is set at 2.5 which might be a safer number to take than the Under on 18.5 receiving yards. Dallas may need Zeke to stay in and block more, due to the Panthers’ league-leading pressure rate, and Pollard playing nearly 40 percent of the snaps should hopefully relegate Zeke to running the ball only.

Zeke has only seen more than two targets just once through three weeks.

PICK: Ezekiel Elliott Under 2.5 receptions (best odds: -115 at DraftKings)

NFL prop picks for Thursday

Quick and Dirty

The total of the Giants vs Saints game has been hammered down to 43 points after being listed at 47 on the look-ahead. Bettors saw the state of both teams’ offenses and just moved that total off the key number of 47 and through the 44 and even more south. Points are not to be expected in the Superdome opener and the first quarter could be tough to watch.

The Giants and the Saints are a combined 0-6 O/U on the first-quarter total, as the Giants have yet to allow a first-frame point while the Saints have allowed just a single TD in the first 15 minutes. That has the defenses set, how about either of these offenses?

Only the Chicago Bears have gained fewer yards than the Saints this season as Jameis Winston’s offense is running the second-fewest plays per game (55) at just 4.3 yards per play, which is also a bottom-four mark. New Orleans has scored just one TD and a single field goal in the first quarter this year. This offense is not marching up and down the field and has benefited from its stellar defense. New Orleans could be without two starting offensive linemen, as well.

The Giants are getting pounded by injuries to their receiving corps, as Kenny Golladay is not 100 percent and Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are both questionable. This is an offense that has attempted just two passes over 20 yards and has been held to 14 points or fewer in two of its three games. Daniel Jones and this rag-tag offense will not walk into the Superdome and move the sticks with ease.

Sign us up for the first quarter Under 7.5 (-120) especially if the Superdome is fired up. 

PICK: Giants at Saints — first quarter Under 7.5 (best odds: -120 at bet365)

Pass Family Robinson

Thursday night’s matchup between the Jaguars and Bengals might not look like the best TNF game of the year, but the books are doubting the Jaguars’ ability to put up points, which is giving us few low spots on the prop market.

Jacksonville’s James Robinson is coming off a season-high in nearly every category in Week 3, where the RB took 15 rushes for 88 yards and a score and saw six targets in the passing game, which resulted in six catches for 44 yards. All that output was done with just 59 percent of the offensive snaps, but Robinson out-touched Carlos Hyde 21-8. 

Robinson’s rushing total sits at 52.5 yards, which is one yard fewer than last week's total closed at. The Bengals held Dalvin Cook and David Montgomery to 61 yards on 20 rushes each in back-to-back weeks to start the season and are tough to run against. This is the No. 2 DVOA rush defense, but they've been giving up big yardage through the air to opposing backs. 

Pittsburgh’s Najee Harris hauled in an incredible 14 balls for 102 yards last week, and Cook and Monty combined for nine catches for 61 total yards in Weeks 1 and 2. The Jags are heavy underdogs and could be playing catch-up Thursday, which would mean a bigger role in the passing game for the RB. Robinson tied for the second-most targets last week, which was also the most competitive game Jacksonville has played this season, and we’re hoping Urban Meyer sticks with a similar game plan. 

Robinson’s rec total closed at 23.5 yards last week and getting it at a lower number after an easy Over last week is a deal. We’re taking the Over on Robinson’s rec yards total.

PICK: James Robinson Over 22.5 receiving yards (best odds: -111 at BetMGM)

Bailing on the Broncos

The Denver Broncos may be 3-0 to start the season and have scored at least 23 points in each game, but let’s pump the breaks on Vic Fangio’s squad. The Broncos have had the easiest schedule to date with wins against the Giants, Jaguars, and Jets. Those are three offenses that have failed to do anything all year and only managed a combined three red-zone trips versus the Broncos. All three opponents failed to rush for more than 80 yards, but that shouldn’t be the case on Sunday when the Broncos welcome the Ravens.

Baltimore comes into the meeting as the No. 4 DVOA rush offense, despite the injuries at RB, and should hold onto the ball a lot longer than the three stooges Denver has played. The Broncos’ defense leads the league in TOP against at 23:24 while the Baltimore offense has a 31:19 mark on the year. Denver won’t be getting starting field position like they’ve enjoyed through three weeks and lead the league in.

The Denver offense sits in the bottom half of the league in points per play and isn’t the sexiest unit with Teddy Bridgewater, who has padded his completion percentage against two of the worst defenses in the league and the Giants. The Baltimore defense has had its issues this year, mainly in the secondary, but it is a tier or two above the Jags and Jets. Denver could have trouble running against the No. 10 DVOA rush defense with Melvin Gordon getting the bulk of the work. This makes the Denver Broncos’ team total 23.5 an attractive Under for us.

This team total ranges from 21.5 (-105 to the Under) to 23.5 (-128 to the Under). We don’t love the price, but getting a total above the key number of 23 is worth a little tax. 

PICK: Denver Broncos team total Under 23.5 (best odds: -128 at BetMGM)

Season to date: 14-22. -8.92 units (risking 1 unit per prop)

NFL Week 4 prop betting card

• Detroit Over 1.5 total field goals (-115 at bet365)
• Darren Waller Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
• Titans vs. Jets Over 5.5 total sacks (-115 at bet365)

     - - 

• Daniel Jones Over 24.5 rushing yards (-114 at DraftKings)
• Kadarius Toney Over 2.5 receptions (-130 at FanDuel)
• Emmanuel Sanders Over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

     - - 

• Zach Wilson Over 225.5 passing yards (-118 at BetMGM)
• Baker Mayfield Over 250.5 passing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
• Ezekiel Elliott Under 2.5 receptions (-115 at DraftKings) 

     - - 

• Giants at Saints — first quarter Under 7.5 (-120 at BET365)
• James Robinson Over 22.5 receiving yards  (-111 at BetMGM)
• Denver Broncos team total Under 23.5 (-128 at BetMGM)

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