If you’re throwing on pants for the first time since April and pumping everything full of pumpkin spice, you know it’s October.
NFL Week 4 brings us into a new month and that means oddsmakers have even more data flowing through their veins. Lines are about to tighten up, which means football bettors need to look everywhere for an edge.
Situational handicapping – also known as spot bets – is a great way to measure something most analytics don’t: the impact of the NFL schedule. We run down the Week 4 slate and give our best letdown, look-ahead and schedule spots to watch.
Letdown spot: Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals
The early line movement is very telling for this Thursday Night Football contest. The Cincinnati Bengals opened below a field goal at -2.5 and has quickly been pushed past the key number to as high as -3.5 – despite being a 1-2 SU team hosting the undefeated Miami Dolphins.
Miami is in major letdown mode after a thrilling divisional win over Buffalo at home in Week 3. The Fins fought tooth and nail for a 21-19 victory – a game in which the Bills ran 90 plays and dominated the football for almost 41 minutes.
Not only does Miami need to quickly come down from the high of that marquee win but the short week will compound what is a team running on empty after playing in the 100-degree heat at home on Sunday.
And to twist the knife, quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is dealing with a series of ailments before this road trip to Ohio: a bad back, sore ankle, and possibly a concussion (if we’re to believe Tua’s baby deer legs and not the Dolphins’ doctors).
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Look-ahead spot: Chicago Bears at New York Giants
To be honest, look-ahead spots have been tough to lock down so far in 2022, thanks to upsets and slow starts for some top teams. And this one is far from a cut-and-dry spot bet, but something to keep in mind when bashing the Chicago Bears this week.
The New York Giants have a short turnaround to prepare for visiting Chicago in Week 4 after losing at home to Dallas on Monday Night Football. Adding to that crunch is a Week 5 trip across the pond to play the Packers in London — a serious step up in competition for the G-Men.
That means operationally, the team is organizing travel, passports, shipping equipment and the overall logistical hornet's nest that comes with these international games while players are also ironing out their plans for family and friends.
In past years, the Giants have flown into London on Thursday, practiced Friday and Saturday and played Sunday morning.
Neither of these teams are as good as their 2-1 records would lead you to believe and New York is opening as a 3.5-point home chalk following the Monday loss.
Watch the weather as well, with potential rain in the works for the weekend in East Rutherford. There are a lot of weirdo factors in this one so keep your head on a swivel.
Schedule spot: Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints have seen their share of wonky schedule spots over the past two years, after being displaced for the opening month of the 2021 season due to a hurricane and now traveling to London for the first international game of the 2022 season.
New Orleans has an early wake-up call at 9 a.m. ET to battle the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday and has been pretty much living out of a suitcase for the past month. Week 4 will be the Saints’ second straight travel game and third contest away from the Crescent City in four weeks after opening in Atlanta, hosting Tampa Bay, and losing at Carolina last week.
The team showed up early, traveling overnight Sunday to get acclimated to the time difference while the Vikes are taking the paratrooper approach: get in quick Friday and get out Sunday. On top of the usual stress of travel, NOLA is dealing with a laundry list of ailments.
Receivers Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Taysom Hill and Tre'Quan Smith are all questionable, and QB Jameis Winston is walking around with a broken back. Nothing that a nine-hour international flight in a pressurized tin can can’t cure, right?
New Orleans, which is 1-2 to start the season but could easily be 0-3, is not only trying to fix some top skill players away from the comforts of home but fix an offense that ranks out 31st in EPA per play. There’s no stress like travel stress to bring you to your knees.
