Moving the spread across multiple key numbers is the name of the game with teasers, and I’ve handpicked multiple teams to target for this week’s action.
Let's delve into the upcoming Sunday slate, with the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings headlining my NFL picks for Week 4.
NFL Week 4 teaser picks
6-point teaser
- Jets (-1.5)
- Vikings (+8.5)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Week 4 Teaser
Jets (-7.5 to -1.5) vs Broncos
The New York Jets have the benefit of a mini-bye after trouncing the Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 3. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos hit the highway for the second consecutive Sunday and third road game in four weeks with rookie quarterback Bo Nix still finding his way.
Gang Green boasts a huge advantage at QB, as Aaron Rodgers posted a 77.1 completion percentage for 8.0 yards per target against the Pats. The Nix-led Denver offense is also going to have trouble moving the ball and putting points on the board against New York.
The Jets rank 11th in defensive DVOA while allowing the 10th-lowest EPA per play, and the Broncos enter with respective 28th and 27th ranks on offense.
Vikings (+2.5 to +8.5) vs Packers
Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has The Purple and Gold swarming with a league-high 16 sacks, and they rank first in defensive DVOA while allowing the third-lowest EPA per play.
It’s been a similar story on offense, too.
First-year Vikes QB Sam Darnold has shown off with a 77.8 adjusted completion percentage and 8.3 aDOT, and Minny has the ninth-highest EPA per play while ranking third in offense grade, per PFF.
The Green Bay Packers are also set up for a huge uptick in class in Week 4 after previously topping the Colts and Titans. While Jordan Love is trending towards returning from an MCL sprain, I question how effective he’ll be against this stout and opportunistic Minnesota defense.
Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.
Best Week 4 teaser spots
- Jets 1 (-7.5 to -1.5)
- Vikings (+2.5 to +8.5)
- Seahawks vs. Lions (+3.5 to +9.5)
- Chiefs vs. Chargers (-7 to -1)
- Saints vs. Falcons (+2.5 to +8.5)
The Detroit Lions haven’t quite put it all together on either side of the ball to start the year, and they draw the soaring Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. Seattle can be teased up to a +9.5 spread, so with the Seahawks sporting the highest overall PFF grade while ranking third in overall DVOA, I’m anticipating a one-possession result and Seattle potentially winning outright.
Turning to the first of two divisional showdowns, the 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs will face hobbled Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert (ankle), who couldn’t finish last week’s game against the Steelers. The Bolts' defense faces its toughest test yet, with three-time Pro Bowl safety Derwin James out due to suspension and star pass rusher Joey Bosa missing Wednesday's practice after suffering a hip injury in Week 3.
It might only be Week 4, but this NFC South matchup has big-time implications with the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons both holding postseason aspirations. While the Saints were stalled by the Eagles in Week 3, New Orleans still ranks third in EPA per play and fourth in offensive DVOA.
I’m anticipating the offense returning to form at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, with Atlanta still finding its way on defense. The Falcons currently rank 24th in EPA allowed, 22nd in defensive DVOA, and 20th in defense grade per PFF.
Not intended for use in MA.
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