The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down three to four units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We learned something in Week 3: picking four square TD props is hard to come out even on. We went 1-3 SU for -1.95u last week but had two players lead their teams in receiving yards yet fail to score. TD props are hard to hit, so finding value and the best price is very important in the long haul. Onto Week 4.
NFL Week 4 touchdown props
- Najee Harris anytime TD 1.5u (+100 at PointsBet)
- Zack Moss anytime TD 1u (+220 at Caesar’s Sportsbook)
- Sammy Watkins anytime TD 1u (+310 at PointsBet)
- Kyler Murray rushing TD 1u (+170 at Caesar’s Sportsbook)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 4 TD props
Najee Harris anytime TD (+100 at PointsBet)
Our squarest TD bet on the board this week is in Lambeau Field where the banged-up Steelers face off against a Green Bay defense that has allowed passing touchdowns to RBs Alvin Kamara and Kyle Juszczyk this year. Pittsburgh owns the league’s worst rushing attack, which kills the TD prop value of Najee Harris, but Big Ben targeted the first round rookie an incredible 19 times last week, making up for all the rushing struggles.
Pittsburgh OC Matt Canada stated to the media this week that the Steelers are going to continue with their offensive game plan heading into Week 4, which could mean another 33 percent target share for Harris with Juju Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, and Diontae Johnson all banged up.
It isn’t a sexy offense to get behind but getting a player who plays 95 percent of snaps and had 28 out of 53 offensive touches a week ago at even money is a great price. This is a 1.5-unit play for us.
Zack Moss anytime TD (+220 at Caesar’s Sportsbook)
The Buffalo offense kept rolling in a 43-21 thumping of the WFT last week. Josh Allen scored the only rushing TD but it was Zack Moss who stole the majority of the totes inside the 20. He had five carries in the red zone, compared to Devin Singletary’s three. Moss out-snapped Singletary for the first time this year, 44 to 34, and had 13 carries (three targets) compared to Singletary’s 11 carries (two targets).
Buffalo comes into its matchup with the Texans as big 17-point favorites. The Bills have had 14 total red zone possessions, which is the second-most in the league, and Josh Allen's offense has scored TDs on nine of those attempts. Last week versus Washington, the Bills had eight rushes and 10 pass attempts inside the 20. There will be plenty of opportunities Sunday versus the Texans, who are giving up 3.3 TDs per game.
Moss was +310 to score last week but that was coming off a low-usage Week 2. His TD prop for Week 4 can be found at +220 at Caesar’s Sportsbook, while FanDuel is hanging +110. Moss is active in the passing game, between the 20s, and in the red zone, making him a great pick at +220. We're dropping one unit here.
Sammy Watkins anytime TD (+310 at PointsBet)
Lamar Jackson has been taking it easy this week at practice as he deals with a back injury but returned to the field on Friday. Jackson has been enjoying his best season as a passer, with an 8.7 yards-per-pass mark, which is eighth in the league.
Marquise Brown may be in the doghouse after dropping three TDs last week which could be great news for newcomer Sammy Watkins, who has seen his role in this offense expand each week to open the season. Watkins is seeing 84 percent of the snaps and has seen at least seven targets each game in a low-volume passing attack, with two RZ targets last week.
Watkins’ matchup with the Denver secondary is difficult on paper, but if CB Patrick Surtain is tasked with containing the quicker Brown, Watkins could see CB Kyle Fuller, who is Pro Football Focus's No. 73 corner and grades better against the run. The Broncos have allowed two passing TDs this year but facing the Jets, Giants, and Jaguars doesn’t count.
Watkins’ TD price has been inconsistent to open the year, as it was +200 in Week 1 followed by prices of +190 and +250 over the last two weeks. We aren’t losing any value on this number in Week 4 and are gaining a few points with PointsBet giving us an early TD price of +310 while many other books have yet to drop TD numbers.
We’re hoping Jackson continues his passing ways and with the risk of injury, we're expecting him to rush less and pass more. With 22 targets and no TDs to date, we’re laying some money that changes in Week 4 despite the matchup. This is another one-unit play for us.
Kyler Murray rushing TD (+170 at Caesar’s Sportsbook)
The Rams’ hype train is out of control after their defeat of Brady and the Bucs last week. Tampa still managed 6.3 yards per play, gained over 400 yards of offense, and had 10 plays in the red zone which included three rushes that resulted in two TDs — one of those by Brady. This week, Kyler Murray comes to SoFi having rushed for a TD in every game through three weeks.
Somehow, the books are giving us a Murray TD price of +170 this week. He was even money in Week 3 and cashed it in the first quarter. Murray led the Cardinals with three red zone carries last week, as RB James Conner has just four RZ totes over the last two games. With a total of 54 points on the board, points will be scored in L.A. and with that Rams’ defense, we could see Murray and the offense get a few looks from inside the five.
The Rams have allowed 67 rushing yards and two TDs to opposing QBs this year and if Brady and Justin Fields can break the plane, Murray has a great shot Sunday. At +170, there is enough meat on this bone for one unit.
Season to date: 4-8 SU +0.48 units
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