A quick rundown of the NFL standings sees 14 teams with 2-2 records entering Week 5, including the entire NFC West.
That’s almost half the league splitting their first four games of the 2022 season. Parity seems to be the name of the game, as even those clubs that top the tables are far from invincible.
There are still a number of questions unanswered as football bettors enter October and if things are going to be this tight, we need to find some subtle angles to get the best of the bookies.
Situational betting — AKA spot bets — is another layer of analysis to add to your clubhouse sandwich of capping, weighing how the schedule could impact the outcome when betting NFL Week 5 odds.
Here are my top spot bets: Letdown, lookahead, and schedule.
Letdown spot: Seattle Seahawks at New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 45.5)
After pouring in 48 points on the road against the Detroit Lions last Sunday, there’s nowhere to go but down for the shocking Seattle Seahawks and Geno Smith. Seattle picked up win No. 2 at Motown in Week 4 and enters Week 5 as the fourth best offense in EPA per play (0.138). Clutch the pearls!
However, not only will it be tough to top Sunday’s output, but the Seahawks also stay on the road for the second straight game and the third time in three weeks. This latest trip has them crossing the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff in the Big Easy to battle a Saints' defense that’s a major step up from Seattle’s last two foes (Atlanta 28th and Detroit 32nd in EPA allowed/play).
New Orleans is ninth in Defensive DVOA at Football Outsiders and is playing at home for just the second time this season — coming off a trip to London in Week 4. The Saints had a number of skill players sit out that loss to Minnesota but could get guys like RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas back for Week 5.
This looming letdown for Seattle hasn’t gone unnoticed by the betting markets, with pro groups jumping all over NOLA on Monday and moving this spread from Saints -4 to as high as -6 as of Tuesday. There are some New Orleans -5 and -5.5 spreads still out there if you’re banking on a Seahawks letdown in Week 5.
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Look-ahead spot: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills (-14, 47.5)
The Bills could have easily slid into our letdown spot for Week 5, considering the drastic switch in gears from showdowns with Miami and Baltimore the past two weeks to hosting the 1-3 Steelers and a rookie quarterback this Sunday.
But what makes this spot bet especially gnarly is the looming lookahead spot to a Week 6 return trip to Arrowhead Stadium — the scene of last season’s infamous overtime playoff loss. The Bills have had that revenge game vs. the Chiefs circled since the spring and the potential lookahead is live with Buffalo laying two touchdowns this weekend.
Buffalo may not play around with Pittsburgh, after getting stunned by the Steelers in last year’s season opener. But with a laundry list of injuries stacking up for it on both sides of the ball, the narrative is there for head coach Doug McDermott to take his foot off the gas and rest some key players if it gets up big early on against Pittsburgh.
Two touchdowns is a wide-open door for a backdoor cover, considering the spot bets working against the home side Sunday.
Schedule spot: Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns (+3, 47.5)
The Chargers are back on the road in Week 5, visiting the Browns as field goal favorites after opening at -2.5. This trip to Cleveland is Los Angeles’ second straight road game and its third road stop in the past four weeks, beating Houston 34-24 last Sunday but losing at Arrowhead 27-24 to the Chiefs in Week 2.
Historically, the Bolts have been a good road bet. Not only has L.A. covered in both road stops so far in 2022, but the Chargers franchise is 24-13-5 against the spread (63%) on the road since moving to Los Angeles in 2017. However, make L.A. a favorite in those roadies and it’s just 8-6-2 ATS (and the Bolts are 21-27-3 ATS as chalk overall in that span).
Injuries continue to be an issue up and down for Brandon Staley’s team, but it could be the wear and tear of a heavy road sked mixed with the physical running of the Browns that breaks the Bolts in Week 5. Los Angeles is among the worst run-stop defenses in the league right now and faces Cleveland’s relentless rushing attack of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (No. 1 EPA per handoff by a mile at +0.179).
The market is showing L.A. -3 at most books but it's priced as low as EVEN with other shops down to -2.5. It’s a bit of a strange spread considering Cleveland has lost to Atlanta and the N.Y. Jets while taking wins over the Steelers and Panthers, and Justin Herbert is a major jump in QB competition for the Browns.
