After four weeks of play this NFL season, the cream is beginning to rise to the top, and it’s showing in the point spread department. Ten matchups feature a spread of five points or more in Week 5, creating opportunities for savvy underdog players.
We like three teams catching points this week, and an undervalued favorite. Let’s break up these four plays into two winnable parlays.
Week 5 NFL parlay picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Parlay Pick 1
PARLAY: Bears +7.5 (-110) + Lions +3.5 (-110) = +264 at FanDuel
Bears +7.5 (-110)
It’s not common to see teams come back from London without the benefit of a bye week between games, but that’s the case with both the Minnesota Vikings and the Saints this week, as well as the Giants and the Packers in Week 6. It’s quite possible Minnesota returns from across the pond looking jetlagged and drops this one to the division-rival Chicago Bears — or at least gets a major scare.
Quarterback Justin Fields has been a limited part of the Chicago offense this season, but he had arguably his best game of the year against the Giants in Week 4. The Ohio State alum threw for 174 yards and ran for another 52 at MetLife Stadium, but most importantly did not throw any interceptions in a 20-12 defeat.
The Vikings can be exposed through the air, as they own the fourth-worst yards per attempt mark (8.0) in football. Minnesota is also capable of being gouged on the ground, allowing the 10th-most rushing yards per game (131.0). Look for David Montgomery and/or Khalil Herbert to move the chains for Chicago and keep their team in the game.
Lions +3.5 (-120)
The Detroit Lions have started the year 1-3 straight-up, but 3-1 against the spread. Oddsmakers appear to be handing Detroit another golden opportunity to at least cover for its backers against the New England Patriots this Sunday.
Mac Jones was limited in practice on Thursday and appears to be trending toward playing for New England two weeks after suffering a high-ankle sprain. But bettors should be ready for third-stringer Bailey Zappe under center just in case. The line would likely change significantly if Zappe is announced as the starter.
Regardless of the signal caller for the Pats, it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to hang with a Lions offense that’s first in the NFL in both yards per game (436.8) and points per game (35.0). New England is 18th and 23rd, respectively, in those two categories. A potential return to the lineup for wide-out Amon-Ra St. Brown following a one-week absence would only help quarterback Jared Goff carve up the Patriots’ 22nd-rated defense by opponent passer rating (95.3).
Parlay Pick 2
PARLAY: Cardinals +5 (-110) + Ravens -3 (-120) = +250 at bet365
Cardinals +5 (-110)
Kliff Kingsbury has endured plenty of scrutiny since joining Arizona as head coach in 2019 — some of it deserved. But he and the Cardinals look to be in a great situational spot against the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday afternoon.
Kingsbury is now 12-0-1 ATS as an underdog against coaches who haven’t won a Super Bowl. That trend is enhanced by a 10-2-1 SU mark for a 106% ROI following a 26-16 victory in Carolina over the Panthers in Week 4.
Kingsbury-led teams can collapse late in seasons, but his squads typically shine early on. The Cardinals are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games played in October.
Jalen Hurts and Co. could find it difficult playing Kyler Murray’s Cards in the desert, as Philly has dropped each of its last five games against the spread in Arizona.
Ravens -3 (-120)
The Cincinnati Bengals have not looked like the team that appeared in the Super Bowl a year ago through four weeks. They appear to be getting too much respect from bettors and bookmakers ahead of this primetime clash in Baltimore with the Ravens.
With some more luck and better playcalling, Lamar Jackson and Co. could be 4-0 this year instead of 2-2. Their defense let a win get away from them against the Dolphins in Week 2, then their offense unwisely sacrificed a go-ahead field goal to try for a touchdown before losing to the Super Bowl favorite Bills last Sunday.
The Bengals’ 2-2 record is far more suspect than Baltimore’s. After dropping Week 1’s meeting with the Steelers, who enter Buffalo as two-touchdown pooches this week, they fell to 0-2 against a Dak Prescott-less Cowboys squad. Their victory over the Jets was hardly convincing, and the same could be said about their Thursday night triumph over a Dolphins team that had to sub Teddy Bridgewater in for an injured Tua Tagovailoa.
Jackson is clearly out-performing Joe Burrow at quarterback in 2022. Not only has the former NFL MVP rushed for more yards than Burrow (316 to 79), but he also has him beat in yards per attempt (7.6 to 7.0), completion rate (65% to 64.1%), and touchdown passes (11 to eight).
