When handicapping games, the first thing that many of us look at is the actual game situation. Who's home, who's away, whether the team is coming off a win or a loss, and, at this point in the season — if either team is coming off or heading into their bye week.
This version is smoother while maintaining the original meaning.
We saw the first round of bye weeks last week and we have another four teams off this week, so it’s important to keep tabs on how teams typically perform in this spot. This week, we have a few standouts.
Under Mike McCarthy, Dallas is on a run that’s seen them go 4-0 ATS in the week before their bye.
We also have a Titans team that’s on an impressive 8-0-1 ATS tear following their bye, although that one might not have as much meaning with Mike Vrabel no longer running the show.
And while Nick Sirianni isn’t everyone’s favorite head coach right now, his teams are 3-0 SU (2-0-1 ATS) in games following a bye, including two separate double-digit wins and a dub in Kansas City last season.
Not every team or coach will have standout performances while playing around their bye, but make sure to keep the rest factor on your radar when handicapping games and examining NFL betting trends.
Good luck in Week 6!
Best NFL Week 6 betting trends
49ers vs Seahawks
The trend: The 49ers have beaten the Seahawks by at least eight points in five straight games.
Perhaps this will be the game to get the San Francisco 49ers back on track as they’ve had the Seattle Seahawks number in recent seasons. These games haven’t even been close, with the 49ers winning by an average of 15.2 points. The 49ers are favored by 3.5 points ahead of this TNF showdown.
See all 49ers vs Seahawks trends for Week 6.
Jaguars vs Bears
The trend: The Bears have held 11 straight opponents to 21 points or less.
You might not realize it, but the Chicago Bears might have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They rank Top-5 in both third-down and red-zone defense and will look to continue their success in Jolly Old England on Sunday morning. That 21-point mark is especially relevant to this game as the Jacksonville Jaguars have a team total of 21.5.
See all Jaguars vs Bears trends for Week 6.
Cardinals vs Packers
The trend: Kyler Murray hasn't won consecutive starts since October of the 2021 season.
The Arizona Cardinals quarterback has lost 10 straight games following a win, and he’s in this spot on Sunday where the Green Bay Packers are listed at -5. The Packers are on a solid betting run at home, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine at home, and they make for an attractive money line option to throw on your parlay... if you’re into that type of thing.
See all Cardinals vs Packers trends for Week 6.
Colts vs Titans
The trend: The Titans are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye.
I get it, we’ve got a different regime running the show in Nashville, but it’s still worth pointing out that the Tennessee Titans have a recent history of being elite following their bye. The Titans' defense has also been strong out of the gate, and the Indianapolis Colts have lost four straight games on the road.
See all Colts vs Titans trends for Week 6.
Texans vs Patriots
The trend: Houston has gone Under the first-half total in 10 of 11 road games since the start of last season.
Conveniently enough, the New England Patriots have accounted for 4.3 first-half points across their last three games, while the Houston Texans have averaged just six first-half points in their two road games this season. The first-half total for this game is set at 19.5.
See all Texans vs Patriots trends for Week 6.
Buccaneers vs Saints
The trend: These teams have gone Under in five straight games against each other.
This matchup has featured some rock-bottom scoring lately, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints haven’t combined for more than 36 points in their last five games against each other. Derek Carr is also banged up following Monday Night Football, and the Saints have scored fewer than 14 points in two of their last three games. If you like the low-scoring pattern to continue, you can bet the Under at 41.5 points.
See all Buccaneers vs Saints trends for Week 6.
Browns vs Eagles
The trend: The Browns have gone Under their team total in every game this season.
The Cleveland Browns hit rock-bottom last week with just 13 points against the Commanders... after scoring just 16 the week before against the Raiders.. and 15 the week before against the Giants. Their team total for Sunday's matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles is 16.5 O/U.
See all Browns vs Eagles trends for Week 6.
Commanders vs Ravens
The trend: These teams have a combined 8-2 record to the Over.
Each of these offenses has been electric over the last three weeks, as the Washington Commanders are averaging 38 points per game while the Baltimore Ravens enter with 34.6. Washington’s defense has had some serious issues on the road going back to last season, as six of their last seven opponents have scored at least 28 points. To no one’s surprise, this game has a sky-high total of 51.5.
See all Commanders vs Ravens trends for Week 6.
Chargers vs Broncos
The trend: The Chargers have gone Under in all of their games this season.
It’s not just that the Los Angeles Chargers have gone Under… they’ve done so by an average of 9.3 points. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have had some low-scoring affairs as well, with three of their five games seeing one side fail to reach double-digits. Unsurprisingly, this game has a rock-bottom total of 35.5 points.
See all Chargers vs Broncos trends for Week 6.
Steelers vs Raiders
The trend: Justin Fields has only thrown one interception in his last seven games.
Nothing stands out from a team perspective, so here is a player prop to consider. While he isn’t exactly stuffing the stat sheet each week, Justin Fields is taking care of the football. With the Las Vegas Raiders picking off just two balls so far this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers QB looks like a good candidate to escape mistake-free.
See all Steelers vs Raiders trends for Week 6.
Lions vs Cowboys
The trend: The Cowboys are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
The deck is certainly stacked against the Dallas Cowboys this week as they host a well-rested Detroit Lions team who looked to be back in top form the last time we saw them. Cowboys fans will be happy to see that they’ve made a habit of playing up to the competition at home, while they’re also 4-0 ATS in the game before their bye under Mike McCarthy.
See all Lions vs Cowboys trends for Week 6.
Falcons vs Panthers
The trend: The Panthers are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games.
Remember when the Carolina Panthers beat the Raiders a few weeks ago? That was cool.
Sadly, for Carolina fans, the Panthers reverted to their old ways as they lost their next two games by double-digits. The Atlanta Falcons also come into this divisional matchup on extra rest after an exhilarating Week 5 win vs. the Bucs.
See all Falcons vs Panthers trends for Week 6.
Bengals vs Giants
The trend: The Bengals have crossed the 50-point mark in four straight games.
That’s another way of saying that the Cincinnati Bengals have eclipsed their team total Over in four straight games. They’ve also gone Over in seven of their last eight games on the road and in nine of their last 11 games overall. Can the New York Giants put together another good offensive performance? This game has a total of 48 points.
See all Bengals vs Giants trends for Week 6.
Bills vs Jets
The trend: The Bills have gone Under the total in 15 of their last 19 road games.
Back to the well on this one after it hit last week in Houston. Both offenses are struggling at the moment, with the Buffalo Bills managing just 30 total points over their last two games, while the New York Jets have failed to reach 20 points in three of their five contests. The first game in the post-Robert Saleh era has a total set at 41 points.
See all Bills vs Jets trends for Week 6.
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