The NFL season is in full swing and so are all the glorious prop markets that come with it. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to.
Week 6 is here and we’re not getting fooled by injury tags, showing some love for a punching bag of a QB, trusting the Chicago run game, and hunting for a good price.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Gibson Over 69.5 rushing yards
- Henry Over 37.5 receiving yards
- Wentz Over 245.5 passing yards
- Herbert Over 70.5 rushing yards
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
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NFL prop picks for Saturday
Hell’s Gibson
Washington running back Antonio Gibson’s props opened up late in the week, as he was sidelined with a shin injury and was limited on both Thursday and Friday. However, OC Scott Turner said that he was, in fact, not limited in what he can do. We’ve seen this rest routine before from Gibson who has been getting a healthy workload despite the shin injury and has one of the best running back matchups this weekend versus the Chiefs.
The Chiefs’ defense has the highest run success rate against and is giving up a healthy 5.2 yards per rush and 5.9 yards on the road. The Football Team is running out of pass catchers as Logan Thomas is out, Terry McLaurin was DNP Friday, and Curtis Samuel is doubtful. A heavy run attack is probably in store for the Washington offense as it tries to play keep away from Patrick Mahomes.
Gibson is coming off a 20-carry game against a tough New Orleans defense and if he gets that kind of volume Sunday versus the Chiefs, his rushing prop of 69.5 yards has a great chance. A negative game script is a legit worry, but Gibson still finished with 63 yards on 14 carries in Washington's lopsided loss to the Bills in Week 3. Teams haven’t been running against the Chiefs as much as they should be, and we hope Washington has this figured out.
Injuries are always a concern so we're hitting this one a little more conservatively than we usually would.
PICK: Antonio Gibson Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
Prime Hunter
The Patriots spent some big money on tight end Hunter Henry and the investment is starting to pay off. The New England TE is coming off a season-high 75 yards on six grabs and has scored in back-to-back weeks. He sits third on the team in targets but second in receptions at 4.0 per game. He led the Pats in targets and receptions in Week 5 and has a plus matchup versus the Cowboys, who are giving up 5.4/66/0.6 to opposing TEs per game this season.
Henry’s receiving total is available at 37.5 yards and a reception total of 4.5 that is shaded heavily to the Over. With those prices, we’re taking the Over on his 37.5 yards, as the TE hasn’t posted a game under 31 yards and seems to be getting more comfortable with QB Mac Jones every week.
Both Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz topped this number in Week 3. Pro Football Focus has safety Jayron Kearse as the main defender in coverage against tight ends for Dallas and the safety has given up 16 receptions on 22 targets and grades much better against the run than in coverage.
This receiving total seems to be heading north from left to right and getting it at 37.5 while most other books have already moved off that number is just good line shopping.
PICK: Hunter Henry Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Wentz with Benefits
Carson Wentz is getting healthier after ankle injuries early in the season, and his yardage prop total is reflective of that. His Week 6 passing yards total of 233.5 was hit hard at opening and can be had for 245.5 while other books are closer to 250. He has hit the Over in two straight weeks and three of his last four, as the market is starting to warm up to the Indy signal-caller.
Wentz is coming off a 400-yard game versus the Ravens in Week 5 and although we don’t need that good of a performance to hit the Over on his yardage total this week, a date with the Houston Texans is another plus matchup for the QB.
Wentz’s yardage total this week is lower than Mac Jones’ 258.5 yards versus the Texans last week. Wentz has Michael Pittman and an offensive success rate similar to New England’s. Wentz’s total is 10-12 yards too short even in a game where Indy is a 10-point favorite.
Houston is allowing 262 passing yards to QBs per game and 1.2 passing TDs. The Texans also looked better offensively and finished +0.8 in yards per play last week. This game could be a lot closer than the line is making it out to be, which is likely the only reason we’re getting a sub-250-yard number on Wentz in this spot.
Wentz has only topped this number once, but he has been operating on two bad (now healthy) ankles for the season's first few weeks. Wentz is also susceptible to turnovers, which could help Houston put points on the board and force the Colts not to be run-heavy.
PICK: Carson Wentz Over 245.5 passing yards (-115 at PointsBet)
The Other Herbert
The Chicago Bears’ offense has been using training wheels since Justin Fields became the starter. Fields hasn’t attempted more than 20 passes and he comes into Sunday’s divisional matchup with the Green Bay Packers banged up like most of the other Chicago skilled players.
Allen Robinson is questionable, David Montgomery is out, and Damien Williams tested positive for COVID and is out for Week 6, too. The last man standing in the Chicago backfield is rookie RB Khalil Herbert, who is coming off a 75-yard rushing performance last week while splitting snaps with Williams.
Herbert could be in for a heavy workload for an offense that has rushed the ball 76 times in 115 offensive plays over the last two weeks. Herbert’s rushing yard total opened at 70.5 and hasn’t headed north...yet.
It isn’t unfathomable to see the rookie get 20 rushes and with Green Bay giving up a league-average 4.3 yards per carry, plodding to 16 rushes at that clip would hit the Over.
This Chicago offense is not going to deviate from its bread and butter, especially after ripping off a pair of wins in Weeks 4 and 5. Give us the Over in what is hopefully a physical divisional battle.
PICK: Khalil Herbert Over 70.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Women and Pittman First
Indianapolis WR Michael Pittman has 339 receiving yards over the last four weeks, which puts him in the Top 12 in the league. His QB is as healthy as he’s been this year and he has a date with the Houston Texans this weekend. A fourth straight Over on his receiving yard total could be in store.
Pittman has nearly twice as many targets as the next Indy receiver and faces a Houston defense that has the fourth-worst dropback success rate. Buffalo’s Stefon Diggs had seven catches for 114 yards in Week 4 vs. the Texans, while DJ Moore had eight grabs for 126 yards in Week 3. The Colts’ defense sits in the bottom 10 in defensive success rate and should yield some points, keeping the Colts from just running the ball with the lead.
T.Y. Hilton is back at practice, but he is still 50-50 to return according to reports. Pittman’s receiving yard total is sitting at 58.5, which is just five yards more than last week versus the Ravens where he dropped a 6/89/1. If Hilton sits, this total will be great value, but if Hilton does suit up on limited snaps, we feel this number is still good for a player who is enjoying a breakout season and accounting for 37 percent of his team’s air yards. This total is going up across the board.
PICK: Michael Pittman Over 58.5 receiving yards (best odds: -115 at PointsBet)
Wright in my Lambo
We are 20 quarters into the 2021 NFL season and the Jacksonville Jaguars have attempted a total of four field goals, successfully scoring…*checks notes*...zero. Yep, the Jags are somehow 0 for 4 on field goals heading into Week 6. They don’t even really know who is going to kick this week, since Josh Lambo and Matthew Wright are in a kicking competition, which seems like an oxymoron considering the state of the team’s kicking game.
In their defense, the four misses weren’t that bad. Wright has missed one from 50-plus while the Italian sports car is 0 for 2 from 50-plus and 0 for 1 from 40-49 yards. And yes, you’re reading that right, that’s zero FGs attempted inside 40 yards.
These two even struggle to kick extra points, as they are a combined 9 for 12 on the year.
Miami is coming into this game heated after getting dunked on by Tom Brady and the Bucs last week and could run over the Jags Sunday. Either way, we’re riding Urban Meyer’s no-kick strategy and hitting the Under 1.5 total Jacksonville field goals at a great prop price of -110.
PICK: Jacksonville Under 1.5 field goals (best odds: -110 at bet365)
Dillon Dollar Baby
After last week's marathon miss-kick-a-thon, Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur told the media that he wished he had gotten RB A.J. Dillon more touches in Week 5 versus the Bengals. Dillon has 28 touches over the last two weeks and the rumors of him getting more involved in the passing game have us excited.
Even when Jamaal Williams was with the team last season, LaFleur was more comfortable running a 1A-1B backfield, and Dillon could be on the verge of a full-blown timeshare.
The Chicago Bears sit eighth in yards per rush allowed at 3.9 yards, but Green Bay has owned the Bears with LaFleur running the team and are 4-0 ATS, outscoring Chicago 107-60 over that stretch. In those four meetings, Green Bay has run for 408 yards, including 261 yards in the last two meetings.
Dillon’s prop totals immediately moved north after opening, but his rushing total and receiving total can still be had at 33.5 and 10.5 yards, respectively. We love both these plays, but if the rushing total jumps too high after opening at 26.5, don’t be afraid to hit the receiving yards Over. Dillon caught all four of his targets last week for 49 yards, and with the push from LaFleur, should see closer to a 40 percent snap share.
PICK: A.J. Dillon Over 33.5 rushing yards (best odds: -115 at PointsBet)
Saint the Town Red
Fourth-round rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown is currently sitting on top of the Detroit Lions’ WR depth chart thanks to Quintez Cephus hitting the IR. The former Trojan has eight targets in back-to-back weeks and has totaled 135 yards on 13 grabs over that stretch. The rookie is also getting high praise from QB Jared Goff.
Detroit takes on the Bengals at home as 3-point dogs. The Bengals own a top-seven rush defense, and with RB Jamaal Williams not practicing Thursday, and D’Andre Swift seemingly unable to handle a heavy workload, the Lions may be forced to pass the ball more on Sunday.
T.J. Hockenson’s return might be beneficial to St. Brown backers, as the TE will likely draw attention away from the WR, and Cincinnati is one of the best TE-defending teams in the league.
St. Brown lines up in the slot and out wide, and any matchup versus CB Eli Apple and SCB Mike Hilton, who are allowing a combined 72 percent completion rate, is advantageous for St. Brown. The Bengals are allowing 15 catches and over 180 yards per game to opposing WRs.
St. Brown’s receiving yard total sits at 52.5 yards, which is nearly double his total from last week. A high-volume game could be on deck for the WR, so we’re instead taking his reception total that sits at 4.5. St. Brown has an average depth of target (aDot) of just 6.2 yards, which justifies hitting his catches instead of his yardage total. He has at least six catches in B2B games in his expanded role.
PICK: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 4.5 receptions (best odds: -120 at DraftKings)
Season to date: 29-38 -9.05 units (risking 1 unit per prop)
NFL Week 6 prop betting card
- Antonio Gibson Over 69.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)
- Hunter Henry Over 37.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Carson Wentz Over 245.5 passing yards (-115 at PointsBet)
- Khalil Herbert Over 70.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- -
- Michael Pittman Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115 at PointsBet)
- Jacksonville Under 1.5 field goals (-110 at BET365)
- A.J. Dillon Over 33.5 rushing yards (-115 at PointsBet)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 4.5 receptions (-120 at DraftKings)
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