Nothing will mess up a well-handicapped bet like the weather.
Just when you think you’ve found your edge in the NFL odds, Mother Nature blindsides you with rain and wind, flipping the on-field conditions and spoiling your best-laid plans.
Don’t let that happen to your NFL picks in Week 6. Several games could be influenced by the elements, and I uncover those forecasts and how you should factor them into your Week 6 wagers.
Houston Texans at New England Patriots weather
There could be some wet stuff in store for Gillette Stadium when the Houston Texans take on the New England Patriots. Not all forecasts call for rain, but there’s a chance that morning showers could become afternoon showers for this 1 p.m. ET kickoff.
Temperatures will be in the low 60s, with sustained winds of 9 mph blowing SSE and gusts could flirt with 20 mph at points, moving corner to corner.
Slick conditions could put a hitch in Houston’s giddy-up. The Texans haven’t ventured outdoors at all this season and played their last open-air game at Tennessee back in Week 15 of 2023.
Second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud has played five outdoor games in his short pro career, going 2-3 SU in those ventures. His numbers don’t seem impacted by the environment outside of a slight dip in completion percentage. However, his receiving corps sits seventh in drops and Nico Collins is out of action.
As for New England, it’s going with rookie QB Drake Maye under center in Week 6. Although the North Carolina native is no stranger to wet weather, the exchange on snaps could be tricky given he’s potentially making his first pro start with a third-string center.
The total on this one opened at 39 points and is down to 38 O/U. Sub-40 totals are 4-8 Over/Under this season.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles weather
Not even 30 mph gusts could blow the stink off Deshaun Watson and this Cleveland Browns passing offense.
The Browns are to take on the Philadelphia Eagles, with sustained speeds expected at 13 mph blowing SSW at Lincoln Financial Field. Gusts could also reach up to 30 mph later in this 1 p.m. ET start, blowing corner to corner in the City of Brotherly Love.
Given the state of Cleveland’s air attack — averaging only 4.2 air yards per completion — the winds may not mess with the passing playbook as much as it will the Eagles’ downfield looks. Philly is fresh off the bye and hoping to have WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back in action in Week 6.
Kicking and punting could also be influenced by those breezes. Neither team has kicked many field goals to start the season, but the Browns are tied for the most average punts per game (six) and rank sixth in net yards per punt (45.9).
Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers weather
Wisconsin weather will have a say on Sunday when the Arizona Cardinals travel to Lambeau Field.
Some forecasts are calling for showers around the 1 p.m. start time (33% chance) along with sustained winds of 16 mph hitting gusts as high as 38 mph, blowing north from corner to corner. That will cool temperatures in the low 50s to “feel like” 43 degrees.
If gusts get that strong, it will plague anything in the air. Arizona QB Kyler Murray ranks Top 10 in both intended and completed air yards per pass while Green Bay Packers pivot Jordan Love rates fifth in both those metrics. The Packers have thrived on the home run in 2024, tied for the most passing plays of 20-plus yards (20).
If rain shows up as well, field conditions could get slick along with the football. Love’s targets have the second worst drop rate in the NFL (9.9%), while Murray’s receiving corps sits 10th in drop rate and fifth in fumbles with three on the season.
Kicking could also get tricky, especially for Arizona. Veteran leg Matt Prater missed Week 5 due to a knee injury and was limited in practice this week. Backup Chad Ryland was 3-for-4 in relief against the 49ers (one FGA blocked), including a game-winning 35-yard make.
Packers kicker Brayden Narveson missed two field goals in the Week 4 loss to Minnesota, and the team was working out other kickers this week.
This total opened as high as 50.5 but has plummeted to 47.5 O/U as of Thursday.
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans weather
It will be a bit breezy in Music City this Sunday.
The forecast for Nashville calls for sustained winds of 12 mph blowing SWS, with gusts up to 24 mph moving sideline to sideline inside Nissan Stadium.
That’s not too disruptive, but the Indianapolis Colts tend to push the ball deeper with QB Anthony Richardson under center. He ranks top in the NFL in intended air yards, while backup Joe Flacco is also up in there in intended and completed air yards.
The Tennessee Titans’ special teams could be influenced by any stronger winds. Tennessee is punting at the fifth-highest rate and ranks second lowest in net yards per punt (37.5). If those punts get pushed out of bounds, Indianapolis could have solid starting field position on some drives.
Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants weather
Sunday Night Football may see showers throughout when the Cincinnati Bengals battle the New York Giants in East Rutherford.
Some forecasts call for a 50% chance of the wet stuff, with that percentage slimming as the primetime game rolls into the second half.
Winds at MetLife Stadium are always weird, due to the configuration of the surrounding racetrack. Models call for sustained winds around 13 mph blowing corner to corner, with gusts getting up to 26 mph in the second half. Game-time temperatures will “feel like” 51 degrees.
Cincinnati’s passing game could get slowed by those winds and rains, with QB Joe Burrow sitting eighth in air yards per completion. The Bengals’ pass catchers are surehanded with a 3.5% drop rate in an offense taking to the air at the seventh-highest percentage in the pros.
The Giants, however, have seen their receivers whiff for an 8.9% drop rate — fourth highest — along with four fumbles for the G-Men, which is second most in the NFL. Daniel Jones doesn’t go too deep downfield, throwing more short and intermediate passes.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets weather
Forecasts range for Monday Night Football, with some showing sustained winds of 11 mph, seeing spikes of 31 mph gusts blowing corner to corner for the second primetime game in MetLife Stadium this week. Those breezes are expected to calm down in the second half of this 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen does sit No. 6 in intended air yards per attempt, but this Buffalo passing game isn’t the same deep threat it once was. Allen is averaging 4.9 completed air yards and relying on his targets to pick up yards after the catch (7.1 YAC — second highest).
Aaron Rodgers’ playbook is pretty tame too. The New York Jets have the ninth shortest intended air yards and the 12th-fewest completed air yards per completion. Rodgers has averaged more than six yards per attempt in two of his five games in 2024.
Punting could be a problem, more so for New York. Gang Green is punting away at the fifth highest rate entering Week 6, with a net yardage of 44.8 (10th highest).
As for kicking, both sides have kickers used to dealing with winds. Tyler Bass is 8-for-10 for the Bills on FGAs, with misses coming from 40-49 yards out. Meanwhile, Jets kicker Greg Zuerlein is 6-for-8 on FGA and a perfect 8-for-8 on extra points.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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