NFL Week 6 Weather and Odds: Dress and Wager Accordingly

If you’ve been sporting a sweater more often or digging out the Halloween decorations, those should be your cues to pay closer attention to the NFL weather reports each week.

The change in season brings with it bustling winds and driving rain, which can have a notable impact on the outcomes of NFL games and should be considered when handicapping the NFL odds.

Week 6 NFL odds is shaping up to be the first real “weather” week of the 2023 season. Several showdowns have less-than-perfect settings, and odds will start adjusting to those forecasts as we get closer to kickoff.

Here’s a rundown of the weather to watch for when making your NFL picks in Week 6.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5, 47.5)

The Thursday nighter could see possible scattered thundershowers and wind gusts up to 30 mph blowing from corner to corner at Arrowhead Stadium. 

This Over/Under total opened as high as 51 points but has since trimmed to 47.5 points as of Tuesday.

Kansas City isn’t reliant on the deep ball and is more comfortable with a shortened passing game, with Patrick Mahomes averaging only 6.5 intended air yards per attempt. The Chiefs are the best third-down offense in the NFL and won’t settle for field goals, so don’t expect their offense to be plagued by the Arrowhead winds.

Denver’s air attack is also very conservative, so the winds won’t have a huge influence on the accuracy of these QBs. The Broncos have proved potent on special teams, leading the way in average return yardage on kickoffs and punts thanks to the shifty Marvin Mims Jr. A wind-influenced punt or kickoff could open the window for a special teams strike.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+2.5, 44.5)

Early morning showers are expected to lighten up for the 1 p.m. ET start in the Windy City, which will live up to its name in Week 6. The extended forecast is calling for northern gusts close to 30 mph creating a strong cross wind at Soldier Field. 

The Vikings have kicked the fewest field goals in the league and have played outdoors in just two games this season. Quarterback Kirk Cousins sits third in total air yards and may have his accuracy on deeper throws thrown off by those winds.

This total has moved significantly, from 49 O/U to 44.5, which has more to do with Minnesota missing WR1 Justin Jefferson. But the rain and wind won’t help things, especially if Chicago continues to air it out. 

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5, 45.5)

There’s a slight chance of rain but the forecast is calling for cloudy skies and winds gusting up to 23 mph in Cincy, blowing NNW from corner to corner at Paycor Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

This total opened at 45.5 points and jumped to 46.5 before coming back down to the opener. We have two offenses that thrive at throwing the football potentially battling disruptive winds on deeper shots downfield.

Seattle is just 9 for 13 on field goal attempts with kicker Jason Myers owning the second-worst success rate. He’s just 8 for 12 on FGA of 30 yards or more heading into Week 6.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (+5, 37.5)

Light showers will continue into the 1 p.m. ET kickoff in Cleveland with wind gusts flirting with 30 mph blowing north across the field. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 50s.

This Over/Under hit the board as high as 41 points but has come down to as low as 37.5, on Tuesday. That’s more of a reflection of Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson being listed as day-to-day with a shoulder injury. 

The Browns rank lowest in air yards and the 49ers run a shorter passing attack, so the wild winds may not have too much impact on the passing game. That said, Cleveland has relied on long field goals for plenty of points, going 7 for 8 on FGS of 40-plus yards.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins (-13.5, 48.5)

It’s not looking sunny in the Sunshine State this Sunday, with the forecast for Hard Rock Stadium calling for isolated thunderstorms through this 1 p.m. ET kickoff. Winds could reach gusts up to 23 mph blowing WSW from end to end. 

But the real weather factor is the “Feels Like” temperatures hitting 109 degrees thanks to the high humidity in Miami. 

That climate had an impact on the Giants in Week 5 and should wear down the Panthers quickly this Sunday, with Carolina playing its second straight road game and third in four weeks. The Dolphins’ relentless speed is breaking opponents and the Panthers have banged-up bodies in the secondary, which will test their depth in the “South Beach Soup”. 

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (-6.5, 41.5)

Showers will lighten by the time this non-conference contest kicks off at 4:25 p.m. ET with winds blowing north at gusts of up to 23 mph, from corner to corner at Metlife Stadium. 

The artificial surface at MetLife was replaced this spring but has been blasted by players this season after several players went down with injuries. Any rain could add to the unpredictability of that surface on Sunday.

While the Eagles can dominate the ground, QB Jalen Hurts has a huge arm and ranks fourth in intended air yards per pass attempt. If the winds get any stronger, that could push those deep passes around. As for the Jets, Zach Wilson is getting more comfortable pushing the ball downfield but may not have the time to allow deep plays to develop against the Philly pass rush.

The total hit the board at 42.5 points and has come down a point to 41.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

New York Giants at Buffalo Bills (-14, 44.5)

If any quarterback can wrangle the wind, it’s Josh Allen and his bazooka of a right arm. However, it seems the breezes in Buffalo won’t be a factor on Sunday Night Football.

The forecast for Orchard Park calls for chilly temperatures (feels like 48) and a 51% chance of light rain. Winds will top out at 10 mph.

This total is at 45 points after falling from an opener of 46.5, which has more to do with the Giants’ floundering offense and a neck injury to QB1 Daniel Jones as well as the questionable status of star RB Saquon Barkley. 

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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