If the best two words in sports are "Game 7," then I'd like to submit "Super Bowl rematch" in the case for the best three words in sports.
My Chiefs vs. 49ers SGP pick will focus on why I think every scoring play will be crucial in Santa Clara on Sunday, and why Patrick Mahomes may be in for a rough day, at least early.
Here are my NFL picks for this must-see matchup on October 20.
Chiefs vs 49ers SGP for NFL Week 7
Under 47.5 (alt. total)
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
49ers first half -0.5
- Under 47.5 (alt. total)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
- 49ers -0.5 1H
With the next-best odds for this SGP being +475 at DraftKings, the sportsbook decision is an easy one. Now let's get into why I think this play will be a winner, starting with the full-game Under at an alternate line of 47.5 instead of 47, which is a key number that could result in a push.
The Kansas City Chiefs may boast the best QB in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes, but it's been their defense that's secured them a 5-0 record heading into Week 7. The Chiefs have allowed just 17 points per game, sixth in the league.
Their run defense has been especially stout, ranking fourth in yards allowed per rush. If Jordan Mason (questionable) can't go or is limited on Sunday, that will be a major hurdle for the San Francisco 49ers offense.
Looking at the Week 7 betting trends, the Under has cashed in eight of the last 12 Chiefs games. Super Bowl 58 also played Under this alternate line of 47.5 despite going to overtime.
Next up is Mahomes to throw an interception, which continues to be generously priced even as he's failed to avoid an INT in each of his first five games this year. Mahomes was picked off in 11 of 17 regular-season games last year and recorded an interception in the Super Bowl as well.
My final Chiefs vs. 49ers prediction is for San Francisco to be leading at halftime.
The Niners have gotten off to some incredible starts this season, averaging 16 points for and only 7.2 points against per game. Those marks rank fifth and third, respectively. By contrast, the Chiefs are 15th in points for (11.8) and 16th in points against (11.4) per first half this season.
I won't rule out some "Mahomes Magic" at the end of this one, so I'll just roll with the 49ers halftime spread.
Not intended for use in MA.
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