The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down four to five units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re coming off our fifth profitable TD week with a +1.4 unit Week 6. That pushes our season record to +8.32 units. We're smitten with our Week 7 TD picks which are a great mix of higher probability TDs and some high-return ones. Onto the (hopeful) plane-breakers.
NFL Week 7 touchdown props
- Callaway anytime TD (+200)
- Uzomah TD (+450) and Sample TD (+2,200)
- Henderson anytime TD (-120)
- Harris anytime TD (+120)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 7 TD props
Marquez Callaway anytime TD (+200 at bet365)
Having the bye last week has definitely cooled down the market on Saints receiver Marquez Callaway, who dropped a two-TD game on Washington in Week 5. Callaway has three TDs over his last three games, leads New Orleans wide receivers in targets and catches, and gets a tasty matchup with the Seattle Seahawks and their generous secondary on Monday night.
Seattle gives up nearly 200 yards to opposing wide receivers and has conceded four TDs to the position. All four of those TDs came in the first four weeks of the season as Seattle hasn’t allowed a TD to a WR since Week 4. Have they gotten better at defending? Not really, as they are giving up 299 passing yards per game over the last three weeks.
Three of Seattle’s starting defensive backs rank outside of the top-half at their positions, and outside vertical threats like Callaway have had success against Seattle with Deebo Samuel scoring two TDs and Justin Jefferson going for 9/118/1 in Week 3.
Callaway has TDs of 49, 14 and seven yards over his last three games, which shows he is a threat to score inside the 20 and between the 20s. The Saints’ passing attack isn’t the most formidable unit in the league but fellow receiver Deonte Harris is questionable after missing practice Thursday while TD poacher Taysom Hill also is dealing with a concussion. It’s a one-unit play at +200 for us.
C.J. Uzomah TD (+450 at Caesars Sportsbook) and Drew Sample TD (+2,200 at BetMGM)
No defense is allowing more tight end receptions and targets than the Baltimore Ravens. They have also given up four touchdowns to TEs, including one to Jared Cook in Week 6, Noah Fant in Week 4, Travis Kelce in Week 2 and Darren Waller in Week 1.
The Cincinnati Bengals don’t feature their tight ends as much as other teams, but C.J. Uzomah is always good for 3-4 targets and is a big target, especially in the red zone where the Ravens have been tough to score against over the last three weeks.
Uzomah got a red-zone look last week, which he turned into six points, making it his third TD in as many games. The Cincy TE’s TD prop closed at +375 last week but a little price shopping has us getting it at +450 this week.
The Bengals also have backup TE Drew Sample, who saw 54 percent of the snaps last week with 17 of those in the passing game. Sample is paying an absurd +2,200 to score. Both tight ends are worth a play at these prices versus a defense that has struggled against opposing TEs. Uzomah is a one-unit play for us to win 4.5 units while Sample is a sprinkle of 0.25 units to win 5.5 units.
Darrel Henderson anytime TD (-120 at bet365)
The Rams’ Darrell Henderson is the de facto runner in this top-four success rate offense. He saw 82 percent of the snaps last week and has hit paydirt in back-to-back weeks and in four of his five games. There aren’t many 20-carry backs in the league anymore, but Sean McVay is happy to keep Henderson on the field and hit 18-plus carries.
The Rams come into Week 7 as massive 16-point favorites against the Lions. Detroit has allowed an incredible 12 TDs to opposing running backs, including half of those in the passing game where Henderson also contributes with 24 receiving yards per game. Detroit is in a free fall and the Rams are likely to dominate possession, coming off a 34-rush performance in Week 6. The Rams have the highest advantage in the run game this week, per Pro Football Focus.
Of course, this high probability TD comes with a catch on the price. Henderson is paying -120 at bet365 to score a TD, but compared to some books who are offering -200 or worse, -120 is a great price. We’re betting 1.85 units to win 1.5.
Damien Harris anytime TD (+120 at bet365)
New England’s Damien Harris isn’t on the injury report this week, meaning he is all systems go in a matchup versus the New York Jets as 7-point home favorites.
Harris is coming off a season-high 101 rushing yards and a score. The TD was his second in as many weeks as he looks to be past the rib injury that slowed him down earlier in the season. He has seven red zone carries over the last two weeks, and with the Patriots sitting at 2-4 on the season, they can’t afford to get cute against the Jets in a must-win game for Bill Belichick and New England.
Luckily for them, the Jets are allowing 1.2 rushing TDs per game this season. Harris ran for a score versus the Jets back in Week 2, while New York has allowed a rushing TD in every game this year. The Jets have injuries in every level of that defense and are the perfect team to bet against for a TD this week.
Harris’ TD price is +120 at bet365 and as low as -110 at other books. We’re wagering 1.25 units to win 1.5.
Season to date: 10-14 SU +8.32 units
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