NFL Week 7 Weather and Odds: Winds Rising, Temps Falling

Before you click "bet" on any of the NFL Week 7 odds, look to the skies.

Weather around the country is getting more volatile as we inch closer to winter and that mix of warm fall temperatures and chilly northern air is stirring up plenty of winds and rains over the next month.

I dive into the NFL Weather Report for Week 7’s outdoor games, giving you the extended forecast and how the elements could impact your NFL picks as well as which NFL odds are seeing the biggest adjustments due to the weather.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Weather

Sunday’s AFC East rivalry is calling for cloudy skies over Foxborough with wind gusts hitting 26 mph and blowing WNW, moving end-to-end at Gillette Stadium. The Over/Under total opened at 42.5 points and has slimmed to 41.5 O/U.

Those type of breezes would faze most quarterbacks if they’re throwing into the wind, but not Josh Allen. He’s proven a few times during his career that his “BFG” of a right arm can best whatever Mother Nature throws at him.

However, we could see kicking affected — for good and bad — if wind projections stay end-to-end. That means the potential for longer field goals when the wind is at the backs of the offense. The Over/Under on longest field goal made is 45.5 yards.

Looking at the special teams for Week 7, we find New England at the bottom of the FG percentage stats. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland is just 5-for-9 on FGAs (55.6%) with longs of 49 and 51 yards. He’s just 1-for-3 on FG attempts of 50-plus yards.

As for the Bills, kicker Tyler Bass is 9-for-11 on field goals with a few 50-plus yard boots already this season. He’s 3-for-5 on FGA of 50 yards or more — which is an uptick from 2022 when he attempted only three FGAs of that distance all season (making two).

Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears Weather

The Windy City is a little less so in Week 7, with wind gusts expected to top out at only 11 mph and blowing NE from corner-to-corner at Soldier Field.

That’s not too significant. However, keep an eye on the forecast closer to game time as those infamous Chicago winds can come out of nowhere. See: Waiting around for Cubs totals every home game.

This will be Las Vegas’ first outdoor game since September 17 and just its second game on grass since Week 1’s stop in Denver. That switch from the fast, clean artificial surface to natural sod can slow some teams down.

But with both clubs likely starting backup QBs in Week 7, this Over/Under total needs no help taking a tumble. The number opened at 40.5 and is down to as low as 37 points as of Tuesday morning.

Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens Weather

One of the most intriguing matchups on the NFL Week 7 odds board could be affected by the weather in Baltimore on Sunday.

The early forecast calls for wind gusts up to 27 mph and blowing WNW from corner to corner at M&T Bank Stadium. Both offenses could be affected by those winds, namely the passing game.

Detroit sits third in yards per attempt and QB Jared Goff is No. 1 in air yards per pass attempt, which means deeper strikes could get blow around if winds stay this strong. His career stats do take a slight dive when outdoors, with his completion percentage falling to 62.5% (vs. 67.5% indoors) and his rating dropping to 90.6 outside.

The Lions aren’t married to the pass game and rank fourth in rushing play percentage — just behind the Ravens’ run-heavy schemes (2nd) — but will likely be without RB1 David Montgomery (ribs). That's a hit for a ground game sitting 11th in EPA per handoff.

Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson won’t hesitate to air it out either, and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken has been pressing the pass more and more from his playbook. Jackson sits No. 9 in air yards per completion and has thrown a total of 68 passes the previous two games.

But should winds hit this speed, the Ravens may opt to shorten everything up and lean hard into the rushing attack. All that running and shorter passes keep average gains down and the clock ticking — a recipe for Unders.

M&T Stadium is also a Bermuda grass surface, which may mess with most indoor teams (like the Lions), but Detroit has played two of its last three on natural grass.

The Over/Under for Sunday’s non-conference contest opened as high as 44 points and has slimmed to as low as 41.5 o/U as of Tuesday.

Washington Commanders at New York Giants Weather

East Rutherford is the scene for this NFC East matchup and the extended forecast is calling for gusts up to 28 mph, with those winds moving WNW from corner to corner at MetLife Stadium.

The Commanders’ playbook will likely be more influenced by those big breezes, as QB Sam Howell is much more active in terms of intended air yards than the Giants attack, which aims to have Daniel Jones back under center.

Jones, who missed Week 6 with a neck injury, sits near the bottom in most passing stats, including yards per attempt as well as second lowest in intended air yards. Washington’s defense has allowed for big plays — third-largest average depth of target — so stronger winds could help them out if the G-Men look for a rare downfield strike.

As for the kicking game, neither unit has been great in 2023. New York’s Graham Gano is 10-for-13 on field goal attempts and has made some deeper kicks of 50-plus in the past four weeks, going 3-for-4 in that range. Though, he's been a steady leg during his time with the Giants.

Washington’s kicker Joey Slye is 9-for-12 on FGAs this season going 4-for-7 on FGA of 40 yards or more. Slye has a big leg with longs of 51 yards in 2023, but his accuracy issues have been a thorn in the Commanders’ paw the past two seasons (49-for-70 from 40-plus).

The Over/Under total for Sunday’s game hit the board at 41.5 points and is down to as low as 39.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Weather

Afternoon rains could carry over into this 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff in Seattle, with some forecasts calling for a 60% chance of precipitation while others project those light showers to taper off before gametime. Wind gusts could get up to 12 mph at Lumen Field, blowing south.

The Cardinals have played outdoors only once in the past five outings (at San Francisco in Week 4) and this will be their third NFC West road game in the last four weeks.

Soggy weather and less than ideal conditions could shorten up Arizona’s air attack, with QB Josh Dobbs ranking sixth in most intended air yards per attempt. It could also impact his accuracy — or lack thereof — with Dobbs on target with only 55.7% of his passes (third worst).

As for Seattle, this offense has been rooted in the run more and more the past few weeks. The Seahawks have run on over 42% of snaps the last three games and sit No. 2 in EPA per handoff on the season. They face an Arizona defense allowing the second-highest success rate to rival rushers (48.8%) and target more inside guard gap runs, so slippery footing on outside runs shouldn't slow Seattle down.

Quarterback Geno Smith leans into shorter strikes, with only 6.4 intended air yards per attempt (tied for third lowest). He’s also been terribly off target (56.3%), but his receivers don’t drop much when those passes are on point. That’ll help with balls potentially being slick on Sunday.

The total for this NFC West war opened as high as 46.5 and is now down to as low as 44 points, as of Tuesday.

Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles Weather

The biggest game on the board could see some classic East Coast late-fall weather on Sunday night.

Philadelphia’s forecast is calling for gusts of 21 mph blowing NW diagonally across Lincoln Financial Field. Those breezes will also cool game-time temperatures to the “feels like” range of 48 degrees — a far cry from the heat and humidity in South Beach the past two weeks.

Both attacks are rooted in the run — ranking Top 8 in rushing play percentage — but if there was a passing playbook put off by any wind, it would be the Eagles.

Quarterback Jalen Hurts isn’t afraid to air it out and currently sits fifth in intended air yards per attempt. He’s had longs of 49, 49, and 59 yards the past three games but he's also struggled with interceptions. He threw three INTs in the breezy loss to the Jets and has been picked off seven times in the past five games.

While Miami ranks top in yards per pass attempt (9.7), its biggest gains come after the catch. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 18th in intended air yards but No. 1 in YAC, getting the ball in hands of his speedy receivers and letting them break off big gains on the ground. Strong winds will be far less disruptive to Mike McDaniel's playbook in Week 7.

This Over/Under total is the tallest on the board, with the opener climbing from 51.5 to as high as 53 points before some buyback down to 52 O/U. 

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