The touchdown market has become one of the most popular and potentially profitable props in the NFL betting world. Each week, we’re going to throw down four to five units as we try to uncover some of the best weekly NFL TD props and dig into the matchups that surround them.
We’re coming off our sixth profitable TD week with a +2.95 unit Week 7. That pushes our season record to +11.27 units and our Week 8 TD picks are a great mix of higher probability TDs and some high-return ones. Onto the (hopeful) plane-breakers.
NFL Week 8 touchdown props
- Perine anytime TD (+400)
- Samuel anytime TD (+175)
- Gronkowski anytime TD (+150)
- Alie-Cox anytime TD (+450)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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NFL Week 8 TD props
Samaje Perine anytime TD (+400 at bet365)
The Cincinnati Bengals head into the Meadowlands as double-digit favorites over the Jets Sunday. The Bengals are coming off a massive win over the Ravens where both running backs, Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, scored touchdowns but it’s the latter of the two that has us excited this week as Perine’s anytime TD prop can be found at +400.
Perine has seen 11 rushes in back-to-back games and with Mixon’s injury history, coach Zac Taylor may be more inclined to give the back-up RB more work and rest Mixon if they find themselves with a big lead versus a Zach Wilson-less Jets offense.
No team is allowing more rushing TDs per game than the Jets at 1.8 per contest. New York is also allowing TDs on 73 percent of opponents’ red zone drives over the last three weeks.
Mixon at +100 is a great price, but we’re going to go a bit bigger and hit Perine to score a TD at +400 for 1.25 units to win five.
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+175 at bet365)
In the two games that the 49ers have been without tight end George Kittle, receiver Deebo Samuel has a near-40 percent target share to go along with 36 percent of the team’s air yards. His 0.33 targets per route run is the third-best mark in the league and that number has hit 0.41 targets per route run over the last two games. In short, Samuel is this San Fran passing game.
The 49er receiver has three TDs over his last three games and having Jimmy G under center is good for business for the WR. He missed Wednesday’s practice but got in limited participation on Thursday which puts him in line to start against the Bears.
Chicago may have the No. 7 DVOA defense, but they give up the third-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and that includes a healthy 1.7 touchdowns per game to the position. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin combined for four TDs last week versus Matt Nagy’s team.
We’d take Samuel’s TD price up until +115 to +125, but bet365 is offering it at +175, which is a great price with other books offering it at +105. Neither Chicago corner ranks in the Top 65 at the position, per Pro Football Focus. We’re wagering 1.15 units.
Rob Gronkowski anytime TD (+150 at DraftKings)
Tampa Bay’s Mike Evans is riding a heater. He's coming off a three-TD performance over the Bears and has five over his last three games. WR Antonio Brown is out with a long-term injury, which should give the outside receiver even more targets ahead of his battle with the Saints. But, at a price of +100, there is better value to be had in the Tampa Bay passing game, an offense that is averaging 3.7 passing TDs per game over their last three.
Rob Gronkowski has returned to practice for the Bucs after missing the last four games. We doubt Gronk will be at 100 percent but we just need him to get some snaps inside the 20, where he has been gold this year.
The Tampa TE has four TDs and has played just two complete games. His scores came on the 1-, 2-, 11- and 20-yard lines as Gronk is a big target in the red zone. His five RZ looks have turned into four TDs.
With Brown likely out, there will be fewer mouths to feed in the passing game and Gronk should get his rest between the 20s and then be called to do his thing when Tom Brady and the offense get in close. The Saints prove a tough matchup, but we’d rather have Gronkowski at +150 than Mike Evans at +100 or +110. The Gronk TD price is dropping as some books have it as low as +110 already. We’re wagering 1.33 units.
Mo Alie-Cox anytime TD (+450 at Caesars)
We’ve been making some money betting on mid-to-low range tight ends lately and we aren’t changing our strategy heading into Week 8. We’ve hit Dawson Knox (+250), Ricky Seal-Jones (+333) and C.J. Uzomah (+350) in successive weeks and are turning our profitable sights onto Mo Alie-Cox in Week 8.
MAC hasn’t been peppered with balls as the No. 2 TE in Indy, but he does have TDs in back-to-back weeks and four over his last four games. Not bad for a tight end that has just 13 receptions on the year.
He has more red-zone targets than fellow TE Jack Doyle, who has just three catches to his name since Week 3. MAC is the pass-catching tight end in this offense and has seen his snap count percentage climb in three straight weeks.
Alie-Cox sits third on the team in targets per route run at 0.26, which is slightly better than star wideout Michael Pittman. He doesn’t haul in the long balls but he is a threat in close and faces a Tennessee defense where Rashaan Evans is the primary TE defender and grades as one of the worst coverage linebackers in football.
Caesars Sportsbook is offering a MAC TD at +460, which is mispriced considering the rest of the markets have him at +210 to +250. We like this price up until +300 and are throwing down 0.87 units to win four units.
Season to date: 12-17 SU +11.27 units
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