Weekly NFL odds and look-ahead lines are constantly in flux, with team performances, interesting quotes, plus injuries (and now trades too!) causing daily odds movement.
Despite Week 8 just getting underway, we're honing in on a look-ahead line for the Week 9 odds slate which combines a little bit of everything — recency bias, a trade-affected team, a dynamic offense getting healthier — that has as looking at a big home favorite... who should be even bigger?
In a game that I anticipate will also provide plenty of juicy NFL player props — but that's for another time — let's dive into why the Panthers visiting the Bengals could provide good NFL picks value right now.
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Cincinnati Bengals -9.5 (vs Carolina Panthers)
| Teams | Current total |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers |
+9.5 (-110) |
 Cincinnati Bengals |
-9.5 (-110) |
Quick everybody! Let's play the crazy overreaction game!
Late during Thursday night of Week 7, the Panthers made the first major trade during the 2022 NFL season, shipping star running back Christian McCaffrey to the San Francisco 49ers.
For a 1-5 team, that had a pathetic offense to begin with and was now starting P.J. Walker at quarterback, trading away a guy that was basically half of their offense led to bettors piling on the Panther hate for their upcoming home game against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Carolina went from an opening line around +9.5 to a closing line of +13.
So, naturally, the Panthers absolutely dominated Tampa Bay 21-3, and the pro-Panther steam has now come in for Week 8, with the Cats moving from +6.5 to +4.5 in visiting the Atlanta Falcons, and the Week 9 look-ahead line has Atlanta at +9.5.
Both lines seem wrong, but let's focus on why the orange (aka good) cats should be favored more than the blue (aka bad) felines.
Reason 1: Math
Factoring in a one-point boost for home field, the Panthers would have been considered as 14-point underdogs on a neutral field against Tampa Bay without CMC. And this was against a Bucs team that just lost to a miserable Pittsburgh team — and prior to that barely hung on against Atlanta, got blasted by Kansas City, and lost an ugly 14-12 game to Green Bay... all at home.
Also, the Panthers' Week 6 game was at the Rams, a team that had just lost to Cooper Rush at home and scored 19 combined points in two games against Dallas and San Francisco, and Carolina (still with McCaffrey) closed at +10.
Both those teams' public perceptions at the time of those games were nowhere near the positive perception Joe Burrow and the Bengals have right now, having won four of their last five games (the lone loss a tight, prime-time divisional matchup at Baltimore), with the offense looking like it's finally healthy and humming in a 35-17 blasting of Atlanta in Week 7.
Again, adjusting for home field, this line suggests the Bengals would be 8.5-point favorites against Carolina on a neutral field. Even with a slight boost for Carolina's outlook after the TB win, you're telling me that the perception of the Bengals now should be considered around 5-6 points worse on a neutral field than the opinion of the Buccaneers coming off that Steelers loss?
I don't buy it.
Reason 2: Cincinnati steam
If you like the Bengals in Week 9, you should look at jumping on them now because this is likely the lowest this line will be.
Cincinnati has taken on money in each of the last three weeks, moving four points against Atlanta, around two points vs. New Orleans, and the line movement for a divisional matchup with Cleveland going above a key number (-3 to -3.5) — on the road.
That Bengals love likely isn't to slow down against a losing team in Carolina, so getting the Bengals below the key number of -10 will be something that (barring a major injury or unforeseen event) will move out of availability by the time this game kicks off.
Reason 3: It's the Panthers
Also, let's just be honest: This is a wild overreaction for Carolina. The Panthers are still a bad roster, P.J. Walker (or Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold) are bad NFL QBs, and this is still a team headed towards the No. 1 pick in the draft.
Their win last week had as much (if not more) to do with the struggling Bucs' shortcomings than the Panthers suddenly being better than expected. Once Atlanta brings Carolina back to reality, and Cincy handles its business at Cleveland, everyone will pile back on the Bengals for what should be a lopsided Sunday matchup.
