When compared to all the advanced stats and computer-learning power ratings out there, situational handicapping can seem a bit… passé.
But tell that to the Cincinnati Bengals and our “schedule spot” for Week 8.
Spot bets are an additional layer to your handicapping, going beyond what the analytics tell you and digging into how the schedule can rattle the psyche of NFL teams. Before you make your NFL betting picks, check out my favorite letdown, lookahead and schedule spot bets for Week 9.
Letdown Spot: New York Jets (+10.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Spot bets giveth and spot bets taketh away. A week removed from being on the winning side of our schedule spot, the New York Jets find themselves in prime letdown land with little time to shake that massive upset win over Cincinnati before travelling to Indianapolis for Thursday night.
New York just wouldn’t go away against the Bengals (who were playing their third straight road game) and kept battling despite being down 11 points with less than five minutes left in the fourth quarter. The Jets closed as 11.5-point underdogs and were just the 24th team to win outright when getting at least 11 points since 2010.
Backup QB Mike White, who dazzled in Week 8’s win, makes his first professional road start on a short week against a pissed-off Colts team that just let the inside track to the divisional crown slip away with an overtime loss to Tennessee. Indy already decimated a pile of chalk when they squashed Houston 31-3 as an 11-point home fave in Week 6.
Lookahead Spot: Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at New York Giants
As of this writing, the Giants still have a trip to Arrowhead to make to play the Chiefs on Monday night. Funny enough, it’s that same K.C. team that could have the Raiders looking past New York and to a Sunday Night Football showdown with their AFC West rivals in Sin City for Week 10.
Las Vegas enjoyed a bye in Week 8, but that hiatus wasn’t a leisurely experience as the front office and coaching staff are still dealing with the fallout from Jon Gruden’s dismissal back in Week 6. At 5-2, the Silver and Black are atop the division standings and that Week 10 homestand versus Kansas City holds a ton of weight.
The threat of looking past a plucky Giants team (who could return some top skill players) is compounded by a cross-country trip to the East Coast and a 1 p.m. ET start time this Sunday. Early kickoffs plagued the franchise when it was in Oakland, going 1-7 ATS in 1 p.m. ET starts between 2017 and 2019, but the Vegas version came away with a 3-3 ATS count in those early wake-ups last year.
Schedule Spot: Green Bay Packers (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs
The biggest game of Week 9 is a rough schedule spot for the Packers. Sure, a mini bye after a win in Arizona on Thursday helps take the sting out of this slate, but this will be the Cheeseheads’ second straight road outing, fourth away tilt in the past five weeks, and overall Green Bay’s sixth travel game in the opening nine weeks of play.
The Packers are 7-1 SU but have been far from dominant, especially away from Lambeau. They got smoked by the Saints in Jacksonville, escaped San Francisco thanks to last-second heroics, win in OT at Cincinnati, just covered at Chicago, and needed an A.J. Green brain fart to get out of the desert with a victory in Week 8.
Green Bay owns an average scoring margin of +14 points at home but just -3.4 on the road. Now it ventures to one of the few NFL venues actually worth that perceived three points on the spread, facing a desperate Chiefs team trying to get its season on track. Kansas City still has a Monday meeting with he Giants to play but is currently giving three points to the Packers in Week 9 - a tempting role for Aaron Rodgers & Co. even with that daunting schedule spot.
