NFL Week 9 Total Bets: Prime-Time Snooze Fest

Over/Under bet #1: Commanders vs Giants Over 44.0

I bet the Under 43 when these teams faced off in Week 2, and while that cashed, I think we get a higher-scoring showdown this Sunday.

At the time, the Washington Commanders were still playing conservatively on offense, with rookie Jayden Daniels barely throwing downfield. Since then, Daniels has emerged as an elite player, ranking fifth in the league in QBR (72.6) and spearheading a Commanders offense tops in the NFL in EPA/play.

The New York Giants have struggled to finish drives, but their offense is trending in the right direction thanks to a pair of rookies. Malik Nabers has quickly become one of the top receivers in the league, while running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. has rushed for more than 100 yards in two of his last four games. 

They should be able to move the ball against a Commanders stop unit 29th in the league in defensive success rate that is struggling against the run and pass. The Giants have also shown cracks on defense and are 22nd in defensive success rate while ranking 30th in opponent pass efficiency (104.3).

Over/Under bet #2: Dolphins vs Bills Over 49.5

Tua Tagovailoa returned to the Miami Dolphins last week, and he looked sharp when you consider his six-week absence after suffering a concussion against the Buffalo Bills in Week 2. Tagovailoa shook off the rust to complete 28 of 38 passes for 234 yards against the Cardinals, and his timing should be even better this week.

The rest of this offense is at full strength, and with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane, the Dolphins have the speed to put up points against anybody.

That said, they can't get stops against competent offenses and rank just 27th in the league in defensive DVOA. This defense was shredded by Arizona last week and could be even worse with DL Zach Sieler, nickleback Kader Kohou, and top safety Jevon Holland sidelined by injuries.  

The Buffalo Bills have a balanced attack ranked third in the league in EPA/play. Josh Allen also has a history of lighting up the Dolphins, and the Bills have dropped more than 30 points in four of their last five meetings between these AFC East foes.

Over/Under bet #3: Buccaneers vs Chiefs Under 45.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield threw for 330 yards last week without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. However, that was against a terrible Falcons pass defense, and he'll really miss his two-best receivers this week against a Kansas City Chiefs defense ranked ninth in EPA/play and allowing just 17.6 ppg.

The Chiefs also have a plethora of injuries to their weapons with Isiah Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Hollywood Brown all on the IR and Juju Smith-Schuster out as well.

The Under is 4-1 in Kansas City's last five games, and the one contest where the Over cashed happened when a garbage time TD from the Raiders pushed the game just over with two minutes left. 

Patrick Mahomes is elite, but there's only so much he can do with mediocre weapons, and he's averaging 235.9 passing yards per game, which is easily the worst number of his career.

He's been unable to push the ball downfield with his average air yards per attempt (5.8) the second-lowest in the league among 38 qualifying quarterbacks. 

Another reason to like the Under is that we're expected to get wet weather at Arrowhead, with a 99% chance of showers.