NFL Week 9 Weather and Odds: Wild Winds Cause Chaos In Cleveland

November is here and brings some wild weather with it. Jason Logan looks at the weather across the country and how that wind and rain will impact the NFL Week 9 odds, including a windy day in Cleveland this Sunday.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Oct 31, 2023 • 11:10 ET • 4 min read

A wise man once said, “It's hard to hold a candle in the cold November rain.” It can also be hard to hold a football in those conditions.

That’s why it’s important to check the weather forecast before you bet the NFL odds, including Week 9 with the calendar turning over to November.

This month can produce plenty of game-altering environments, from strong winds to rain and even a few sloppy snowstorms. I look to the skies and highlight the weather you need to watch for before placing your NFL picks on the Week 9 odds.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers weather

The forecast for the Steel City doesn’t throw too much disruption at this Thursday Night Football matchup, besides some chilly conditions inside Acrisure Stadium.

There with be 13 mph gusts blowing south across the field, making game-time temperatures feel like they’re dancing just above freezing (35 degrees).

That’ll make every hit feel just that much more painful, which is the way the Pittsburgh Steelers like it. The Steelers are one of the hardest-hitting stop units out there (fourth-highest blitz rate and 22 sacks) and rely on that to create chaos and turnovers.

Both teams could have backup quarterbacks in action, with Mitchell Trubisky stepping in for Kenny Pickett and rookie Will Levis making his first NFL road start in front of the Terrible Towels, with Ryan Tannehill’s ankle a question mark.

Those QB questions have this total sitting at 36.5 points as of Tuesday morning. FYI: totals of 37 points or less have finished 6-16 Over/Under (73% Under) since 2020.

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Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers weather

The forecast for Lambeau Field is far from a frozen tundra in Week 9. More like a soggy noodle.

Early projections for Green Bay are calling for morning showers rolling into this 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT back in L.A.) and then stopping around halftime. Winds will also die down in the afternoon, with gusts of 15 mph expected and game-time temps in the low-40s Sunday afternoon.

The Los Angeles Rams, who are playing in the early window for the second straight road game, are hoping QB Matthew Stafford can start after suffering a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. Los Angeles is currently a 3-point underdog.

Stafford has plenty of experience with Midwest weather, having played all those years for Detroit in the NFC North. That said, his passer rating dips to 87.4 outdoors (vs. 93+ indoor/retractable) and he’s thrown 58 INTs in 65 open-air appearances (89% INT rate per game).

Stafford’s day-to-day and that hand injury could make it tough to hang on to a slick football in a wet first half.

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns weather

Batten down the hatches when the Cleveland Browns host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9.

The extended forecast for Cleveland is calling for strong breezes Sunday afternoon, with sustained winds of 24 mph and wind gusts of 33 mph blowing SW from corner to corner at Cleveland Browns Stadium.

These winds may not impact Arizona’s passing game too much with fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune expected to start after the Cards’ benched Joshua Dobbs (and wait on Kyler Murray). That calls for conservative playcalling and a lot of handoffs against this stingy Cleveland defense, causing this total to dip to 37.5 points O/U.

As for the Browns, the status of Deshaun Watson could alter the way you look at Cleveland’s downfield attack. Watson averages 9.5 intended air yards per attempt, which is far greater than the Browns’ backups. He's “hopeful” for Week 9, whatever that means.

What we do know is that those strong gusts will mess with the kicking for both sides. Arizona is an indoor team and kicker Matt Prater is 14-for-16 on field goal attempts this season — missing one of those outdoors in Seattle in Week 7.

Cleveland kicker Dustin Hopkins has been a steady leg — by Browns’ standards — hitting 18 of 20 FGAs in 2023. The Browns have attempted the third most field goals so far in 2023, with the offense boasting the second-lowest success rate on third downs (31.07%).

Game props have the longest field goal total at 45.5 yards (Under -110) which could be worth a look if the forecast stays on this track. Given the state of these offenses, there will be plenty of FGAs getting pushed around by those Ohio gusts.

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets weather

Predicting next Monday’s weather is tricky on a Tuesday morning, but one thing to keep an eye on this week is the possibility of rain for the Week 9 finale in East Rutherford.

Current forecasts are calling for later evening showers over MetLife Stadium and winds picking up with gusts of 17 mph. If that shows up, it would likely be in the second half of Bolts-Jets on Monday Night Football. “Feels like” temperatures expected to be in the high-40s.

The Los Angeles Chargers, who are 3-point road faves in Jersey, have played outdoors only once in the past five games. That was a 31-17 loss at Kansas City on a perfect football day in Week 7. However, Justin Herbert’s career splits don’t seem impacted by outdoor appearances (he actually has a better passer rating in open-air venues).

The total for Monday night is at 41.5 points, which is the lowest Over/Under number for a Chargers game since a 41.5-point closing total against Cincinnati in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The Bolts had Tyrod Taylor as the starter with a then-rookie Herbert as the backup. It was the last game Herbert would ever be the Chargers QB2.

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

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