A wise man once said, “It's hard to hold a candle in the cold November rain.” It can also be hard to hold a football in those conditions.
That’s why it’s important to check the weather forecast before you bet the NFL odds, including Week 9 with the calendar turning over to November.
This month can produce plenty of game-altering environments, from strong winds to rain and even a few sloppy snowstorms. I look to the skies and highlight the weather you need to watch for before placing your NFL picks on the Week 9 odds.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers weather
The forecast for the Steel City doesn’t throw too much disruption at this Thursday Night Football matchup, besides some chilly conditions inside Acrisure Stadium.
There with be 13 mph gusts blowing south across the field, making game-time temperatures feel like they’re dancing just above freezing (35 degrees).
That’ll make every hit feel just that much more painful, which is the way the Pittsburgh Steelers like it. The Steelers are one of the hardest-hitting stop units out there (fourth-highest blitz rate and 22 sacks) and rely on that to create chaos and turnovers.
Both teams could have backup quarterbacks in action, with Mitchell Trubisky stepping in for Kenny Pickett and rookie Will Levis making his first NFL road start in front of the Terrible Towels, with Ryan Tannehill’s ankle a question mark.
Those QB questions have this total sitting at 36.5 points as of Tuesday morning. FYI: totals of 37 points or less have finished 6-16 Over/Under (73% Under) since 2020.
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Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers weather
The forecast for Lambeau Field is far from a frozen tundra in Week 9. More like a soggy noodle.
Early projections for Green Bay are calling for morning showers rolling into this 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT back in L.A.) and then stopping around halftime. Winds will also die down in the afternoon, with gusts of 15 mph expected and game-time temps in the low-40s Sunday afternoon.
The Los Angeles Rams, who are playing in the early window for the second straight road game, are hoping QB Matthew Stafford can start after suffering a sprained thumb on his throwing hand. Los Angeles is currently a 3-point underdog.
Stafford has plenty of experience with Midwest weather, having played all those years for Detroit in the NFC North. That said, his passer rating dips to 87.4 outdoors (vs. 93+ indoor/retractable) and he’s thrown 58 INTs in 65 open-air appearances (89% INT rate per game).
Stafford’s day-to-day and that hand injury could make it tough to hang on to a slick football in a wet first half.
Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns weather
Batten down the hatches when the Cleveland Browns host the Arizona Cardinals in Week 9.
The extended forecast for Cleveland is calling for strong breezes Sunday afternoon, with sustained winds of 24 mph and wind gusts of 33 mph blowing SW from corner to corner at Cleveland Browns Stadium.
These winds may not impact Arizona’s passing game too much with fifth-round rookie Clayton Tune expected to start after the Cards’ benched Joshua Dobbs (and wait on Kyler Murray). That calls for conservative playcalling and a lot of handoffs against this stingy Cleveland defense, causing this total to dip to 37.5 points O/U.
As for the Browns, the status of Deshaun Watson could alter the way you look at Cleveland’s downfield attack. Watson averages 9.5 intended air yards per attempt, which is far greater than the Browns’ backups. He's “hopeful” for Week 9, whatever that means.
What we do know is that those strong gusts will mess with the kicking for both sides. Arizona is an indoor team and kicker Matt Prater is 14-for-16 on field goal attempts this season — missing one of those outdoors in Seattle in Week 7.
Cleveland kicker Dustin Hopkins has been a steady leg — by Browns’ standards — hitting 18 of 20 FGAs in 2023. The Browns have attempted the third most field goals so far in 2023, with the offense boasting the second-lowest success rate on third downs (31.07%).
Game props have the longest field goal total at 45.5 yards (Under -110) which could be worth a look if the forecast stays on this track. Given the state of these offenses, there will be plenty of FGAs getting pushed around by those Ohio gusts.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets weather
Predicting next Monday’s weather is tricky on a Tuesday morning, but one thing to keep an eye on this week is the possibility of rain for the Week 9 finale in East Rutherford.
Current forecasts are calling for later evening showers over MetLife Stadium and winds picking up with gusts of 17 mph. If that shows up, it would likely be in the second half of Bolts-Jets on Monday Night Football. “Feels like” temperatures expected to be in the high-40s.
The Los Angeles Chargers, who are 3-point road faves in Jersey, have played outdoors only once in the past five games. That was a 31-17 loss at Kansas City on a perfect football day in Week 7. However, Justin Herbert’s career splits don’t seem impacted by outdoor appearances (he actually has a better passer rating in open-air venues).
The total for Monday night is at 41.5 points, which is the lowest Over/Under number for a Chargers game since a 41.5-point closing total against Cincinnati in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The Bolts had Tyrod Taylor as the starter with a then-rookie Herbert as the backup. It was the last game Herbert would ever be the Chargers QB2.
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