Time to crank up the Guns N’ Roses because NFL Week 9 has some cold “November Rain” in the forecast.
With the biggest shift in weather on the way, we’re seeing temperatures drop, winds pick up, and plenty of the wet stuff showing up for outdoor venues hosting NFL action this weekend.
I highlight the worst forecasts and how they'll impact the NFL odds — as well as your NFL picks — with my Week 9 weather report.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans weather
An ugly game calls for ugly weather. Nissan Stadium is forecasted for sustained winds of 12 mph with gusts up to 28 mph, blowing south from end zone to end zone.
Some weather models also show a chance of showers around the 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but it would be very light and wouldn't last much beyond the first half.
We’ve already seen the Over/Under total for this game slip from as high as 41.5 points to 38 points, based solely on the offensive ineptitude of these squads. Some wind and rain definitely won’t help things. As of Sunday morning, this number sits at 38.5 O/U.
The New England Patriots do get rookie starter Drake Maye at quarterback after a concussion scare. Maye is far more effective at pushing the ball down field than veteran QB Jacoby Brissett, with increases in averages air yards intended and completed.
As for the Tennessee Titans, they have Mason Rudolph at QB again, who is not exactly putting confidence in Titans fans. On top of that, injured RB Tony Pollard is expected to play in Week 9.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns weather
The Los Angeles Chargers not only get an early wake-up call for a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT), but Ohio could throw some non-California weather at L.A. in Week 9.
The early forecasts for Huntington Bank Field called for afternoon showers, but Sunday morning models have only partly cloudy skies above Cleveland. Sustained winds of 12 mph will hit gusts up to 20 mph, blowing ESE corner to corner, with winds hitting that peak in the second half.
The total opened at 40.5 O/U and has taken Over money to 42.5 points, with Jameis Winston impressing bettors with his work under center for the Cleveland Browns in Week 8. Chargers QB Justin Herbert has also been sharp and could get some WRs back for this road trip.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals weather
The early-week forecast for Paycor Stadium showed a slight risk of rain for this contest but now it's only partly cloudy skies for the 1 p.m. ET start time.
Winds don’t look like an issue, topping out at 15 mph gusts.
The game total has ticked up two points from 44.5 to 46.5 points, while the first half Over/Under is listed at 23.5 O/U. The Las Vegas Raiders are the fourth lowest scoring team in first halves (7.9) but allow 12.8 points against in those opening two frames and are 5-3 O/U on the 1H totals this season.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers weather
If there was a game on the Week 9 board that could see its outcome swayed by weather, this NFC North battle is it.
Rain is in the forecast for Green Bay on Sunday, with 100% chance of precipitation for Lambeau Field around the 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Showers are expected to get stronger around 4 p.m. and rain heavily in the first half before letting up a bit around 6 p.m. ET.
Also showing up are sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts up to 31 mph, blowing SE from corner to corner. Those will cool the climate to “feels like” temperatures in the mid-40s.
This total opened at 47.5 points with injury questions around Jordan Love (groin) and has bounced between that number and 48.5 O/U. Love is expected to start this key NFC North matchup and the total is at 47.5 with the Lions laying -2.5 - down from -3.5 on the opener.
This trip to Wisconsin is the Detroit Lions’ first outdoor game of the season. Last year, Detroit averaged just under 19 points in five outdoor regular season games and the team has scored more than 27 points (team total at 26.5 O/U for Week 9) five times in 27 open-air games over the past three years.
Quarterback Jared Goff has a long-documented dip in output when playing outside. For his career, Goff’s watched his completion percentage decline outdoors, his interceptions spike, and his QB rating plummet from 100.0+ inside to 89.5 in the elements.
As for the Packers, they seem to have found the answer to their kicking problems in Brandon McManus. He’s 4-for-4 on FGAs in his two games since joining the Cheeseheads, including game-winning makes in both of those outings.
Detroit rookie kicker Jake Bates is a perfect 11-for-11 on FGAs and 27 for 28 on PATS, but as mentioned, all of those kicks came indoors. Wind, cold and rain will be an added challenge for the Arkansas product.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs weather
Monday Night Football’s non-conference clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs could be a soggy one, with forecasts calling for rain at Arrowhead Stadium.
There’s nasty weather in the Kansas City area during the day, including thunderstorms with possible hail, but that is expected to lighten ahead of the 8 p.m. ET kickoff. That said, bettors should brace for rain throughout, with an 85% chance of precipitation.
Winds could also play a role, with sustained breezes of 10 mph reaching gusts of 21 mph, blowing SSW from end to end at Arrowhead.
The Over/Under total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46 O/U.
Slick footballs shouldn’t be too hard for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to wrangle, boasting one of the lower drop rates while also keeping passing plays relatively conservative, with an average intended air yards per attempt sitting at a league-low 5.3.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers were surehanded before losing elite WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries. Now, Mayfield is trusting some targets further down the depth chart but is also keeping things short and simple with the third-lowest intended air yards per pass.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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