Time to crank up the Guns N’ Roses because NFL Week 9 has some cold “November Rain” in the forecast.
With the biggest shift in weather on the way, we’re seeing temperatures drop, winds pick up, and plenty of the wet stuff showing up for outdoor venues hosting NFL action this weekend.
I highlight the worst forecasts and how they'll impact the NFL odds — as well as your NFL picks — with my Week 9 weather report.
New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans weather
An ugly game calls for ugly weather. Nissan Stadium is forecasted for sustained winds of 12 mph with gusts up to 25 mph, blowing south from end zone to end zone.
Some weather models also show a chance of showers around the 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but it would be very light and wouldn't last much beyond the first half.
We’ve already seen the Over/Under total for this game slip from as high as 41.5 points to 38 points, based solely on the offensive ineptitude of these squads. Some wind and rain definitely won’t help things.
The New England Patriots may have to lean on veteran QB Jacoby Brissett with rookie starter Drake Maye in concussion protocol. Brissett is far less effective at pushing the ball down field, ranking among the lowest averages in air yards intended and completed.
As for the Tennessee Titans, they have their own quarterback questions, with Will Levis limited in practice and Mason Rudolph not exactly putting confidence in Titans fans. On top of that, top skill positions WR Calvin Ridley and RB Tony Pollard are listed as questionable for Week 9.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns weather
The Los Angeles Chargers not only get an early wake-up call for a 1 p.m. ET start (10 a.m. PT), but Ohio could throw some non-California weather at L.A. in Week 9.
Some forecasts for Huntington Bank Field call for afternoon showers, with a 60% chance of rain, while others simply predict cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Sustained winds of 12 mph will hit gusts up to 17 mph, blowing ESE corner to corner.
The total opened at 40.5 O/U and has taken Over money to 43 points, with Jameis Winston impressing bettors with his work under center for the Cleveland Browns in Week 8. Chargers QB Justin Herbert has also been sharp and could get some WRs back for this road trip.
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals weather
Bettors will want to keep an eye on the forecast for Paycor Stadium, with a few weather models calling for rain and others expecting morning showers to pass before the 1 p.m. ET start time.
Those forecasts predicting rain call for a 60% chance of showers in the first half of this matchup, with those systems moving out of Cincinnati for the final 30 minutes. Winds don’t look like an issue, topping out at 12 mph gusts.
The game total has ticked up two points from 44.5 to 46.5 points, while the first half Over/Under is listed at 23.5 O/U. The Las Vegas Raiders are the fourth lowest scoring team in first halves (7.9) but allow 12.8 points against in those opening two frames and are 5-3 O/U on the 1H totals this season.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers weather
If there was a game on the Week 9 board that could see its outcome swayed by weather, this NFC North battle is it.
Rain is in the forecast for Green Bay on Sunday, but just how much and how frequent is still up in the air. Some forecasts call for a break in showers around 4 p.m. ET, but others call for continuous rain throughout this game, with an 87% chance of precipitation for Lambeau Field.
Also showing up are sustained winds of 14 mph and gusts up to 25 mph, blowing ESE from corner to corner. Those will cool the climate to “feels like” temperatures in the mid-40s.
This total opened at 47.5 points with injury questions around Jordan Love (groin) and has bounced between that number and 48.5 O/U. According to Love, he has a realistic chance of playing on Sunday, which could just be gamesmanship, as the Green Bay Packers could sit him ahead of their Week 10 bye.
This trip to Wisconsin is the Detroit Lions’ first outdoor game of the season. Last year, Detroit averaged just under 19 points in five outdoor regular season games and the team has scored more than 27 points (team total at 26.5 O/U for Week 9) five times in 27 open-air games over the past three years.
Quarterback Jared Goff has a long-documented dip in output when playing outside. For his career, Goff’s watched his completion percentage decline outdoors, his interceptions spike, and his QB rating plummet from 100.0+ inside to 89.5 in the elements.
As for the Packers, they seem to have found the answer to their kicking problems in Brandon McManus. He’s 4-for-4 on FGAs in his two games since joining the Cheeseheads, including game-winning makes in both of those outings.
Detroit rookie kicker Jake Bates is a perfect 11-for-11 on FGAs and 27 for 28 on PATS, but as mentioned, all of those kicks came indoors. Wind, cold and rain will be an added challenge for the Arkansas product.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs weather
Monday Night Football’s non-conference clash between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs could be a soggy one, with forecasts calling for rain at Arrowhead Stadium.
There’s nasty weather in the Kansas City area during the day, including thunderstorms with possible hail, but that is expected to lighten ahead of the 8 p.m. ET kickoff. That said, bettors should brace for rain throughout, with an 85% chance of precipitation.
Winds could also play a role, with sustained breezes of 10 mph reaching gusts of 19 mph in the first half and then peaking at 26 mph in the second half, blowing SSW from end to end at Arrowhead.
The Over/Under total opened at 44.5 and is up to 45.5 O/U, but live odds and second-half totals could show value to the Under if those stronger breezes show up in the final 30 minutes.
Slick footballs shouldn’t be too hard for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to wrangle, boasting one of the lower drop rates while also keeping passing plays relatively conservative, with an average intended air yards per attempt sitting at a league-low 5.3.
Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers were surehanded before losing elite WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin to injuries. Now, Mayfield is trusting some targets further down the depth chart but is also keeping things short and simple with the third-lowest intended air yards per pass.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
Odds Converter
Parlay
Print
