NFL Wild Card Weekend Total Bets: Desert Shootout Caps Off First Round

Over/Under bet #1: Steelers vs Ravens Under 43.5 

The Pittsburgh Steelers averaged just 14.3 points per game in their final four contests, which included a trip to Baltimore where they scored 17. They wrapped up their regular season by averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per play against a terrible Bengals defense in Week 18. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB in Week 7, Pittsburgh sits just 28th in the NFL in offensive success rate. 

While the Baltimore Ravens have an explosive offense, Pittsburgh's solid defense is built to slow down their run-heavy attack. The Steelers are fifth in the league in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.1) and have a history of shutting down Lamar Jackson.

Jackson has been held to a passer rating below 66.0 in four of his last six starts against Pittsburgh. While the dual-threat staw was efficient as a passer when these teams clashed three weeks ago, he still finished with a modest 207 passing yards and just 22 rushing yards on nine carries. 

The Ravens scored 34 points in that contest, which resulted in the Over cashing for the first time in the last nine meetings between these rivals. That said, they had a defensive touchdown and Pittsburgh was missing both CB Joey Porter Jr. and DT Larry Ogunjobi. 

This time around, the Steelers defense will be at full strength, while Baltimore will be missing Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers. 

Over/Under bet #2: Commanders vs Buccaneers Over 50

This is the highest total of the Wild Card round, but don't hesitate to pull the trigger on the Over between two sides that went a combined 23-11 O/U during the regular season.

These teams met up back in Week 1, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning 37-20. Better yet, that was with Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels making his NFL debut and averaging just 1.6 air yards per completion. 

Since then, Daniels has put together arguably the greatest season for a rookie QB in NFL history, completing 69% of his passes for 3,568 yards while adding another 891 yards on the ground. He spearheaded a Washington offense that was fourth in the league in EPA/play, and Daniels will move the ball against a Bucs squad that ranks 23rd in defensive success rate. 

That said, Tampa Bay should also torch a Commanders stop unit that sits 22nd in defensive EPA. The Bucs have a balanced offense that is fifth in dropback EPA and sixth in rush EPA. Baker Mayfield will pick apart a brutal Washington secondary while Bucky Irving gashes a defense that surrenders 4.8 yards per carry.

Over/Under bet #3: Vikings vs Rams Over 47.5

With the fires in California, this game has been moved to State Farm Stadium in Arizona, and that neutral site should make it easier for both teams to hear their play calls.

This handicap really comes down to a single factor for both teams: can they give their quarterbacks time in the pocket? Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford had the worst passing grade under pressure (29.6) according to PFF. Meanwhile, Minnesota Vikings pivot Sam Darnold struggled immensely last week as the Lions racked up 22 hurries and nine quarterback hits. 

Ultimately, I think both QBs will have time to make plays here. The Rams' offensive line made massive improvements during the season and didn't give up a single sack in seven of Stafford's last 10 starts.

That included a Week 8 clash against Minnesota, where the veteran gunslinger threw for 279 yards and four scores while Kyren Williams added 97 yards on the ground. The Vikes blitz at the highest rate in the NFL, but if they don't hit home with that pressure, they get burned. Stafford also has a slightly higher passing grade when blitzed (71.5) than when he isn't (70.1).

Even with rookie Jared Verse bringing heat off the edge, the Rams were in the bottom half of the league in pressure rate. They have the worst defensive EPA of any team in the playoffs and are ranked 28th in defensive dropback EPA. That vulnerable secondary will get torched by Darnold and All-Pro wideout Justin Jefferson.