The Baltimore Ravens will host the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship on Sunday, with Zay Flowers and the Baltimore offense poised to give the Chiefs serious problems at home this weekend.
Flowers emerged as the leading target for quarterback Lamar Jackson this season, as the rookie wide receiver out of Boston College added another weapon to an already potent attack. The Ravens are a small favorite in the NFL odds this weekend, and Baltimore will likely need to balance its offense as much as possible to punch its ticket in the Super Bowl odds.
We’ll look at what that game plan might look like in my NFL picks for Zay Flowers' odds.
Make sure to also check out our Chiefs vs. Ravens betting preview, AFC Championship props, and spotlight picks for Lamar Jackson odds!
Zay Flowers AFC Championship prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Zay Flowers AFC Championship prop pick
Under 4.5 receptions (-150)
Zay Flowers wasn’t exactly a surprise for the Baltimore Ravens this year, though few expected him to have such a major impact in his first NFL season. Flowers led Baltimore in both receptions (77) and receiving yardage (858), outpacing Odell Beckham Jr. and Mark Andrews to become Jackson’s top target.
Some of that usage was due to injuries that gave Flowers additional opportunities. Beckham missed a little time this year, and the loss of Andrews further opened the door for the speedy wideout.
That dynamic could change on Sunday, however, as the Ravens have activated Andrews and expect their superstar tight end to play. In a tough game against a difficult opponent, Andrews may again become Jackson’s go-to target in big spots or when plays break down. If that happens, it will probably be at the expense of targets for Flowers and other receivers.
Even if that wasn’t the case, there are signs that the rookie hasn’t been the main option for Jackson late in the season. Flowers only caught five or more passes once in the last four games and was only targeted more than five times once in that period as well. In last week’s win over Houston, Flowers caught four balls for just 41 yards.
The Ravens are perhaps the best running team in the NFL, while the Kansas City Chiefs have given opposing quarterbacks trouble all year long. That means it’s likely that the Ravens will choose to emphasize the running attack, further limiting Flowers’ opportunities to shine.
Flowers proved himself as a top-tier wide receiver this year, but this won’t be his week to shine. I’m taking the Under on Flowers’ receptions prop, which has a total of 4.5 at most books.
Prop: Under 4.5 receptions (-150 at bet365)
Zay Flowers AFC Championship same-game parlay
Under 4.5 receptions
Under 42.5 receiving yards
Ravens -3.5
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Flowers may not be the primary weapon on display for Baltimore this Sunday, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Ravens are in trouble. We can look at their game plan and build a same-game parlay that fades Flowers while still picking Baltimore to reach the Super Bowl.
When we consider that Flowers has to have four receptions or less for our SGP to have any chance, adding in a bet on his receiving yardage prop is only natural. With more options available for Jackson and every reason to lean towards the run this weekend, I’m taking the Under on Flowers’ yardage prop as well.
However, one player’s fortunes aren’t the same as the entire team’s. The Ravens are rightfully favored in this matchup, and it may only be the team’s history of playoff failures — or the Chiefs’ history of dominance in the postseason — that has kept the line so close at just 3.5 points.
Baltimore has been arguably the most dominant team in the NFL this year, winning 10 of its last 11 games before a meaningless loss to Pittsburgh in Week 18. If there was any doubt as to who the team to beat was, the Ravens put that conversation to bed with a two-touchdown win over the San Francisco 49ers on Christmas Day, followed by a 56-19 drubbing of the Dolphins the following week.
Nothing suggests Baltimore should be such a small favorite at home on Sunday. This won’t be a blowout, but ultimately, the Ravens should win this game by a touchdown or more.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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