Two of the top teams in the NHL face off on Monday night as the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights battle for first place in the West Division.
When it comes to Stanley Cup futures odds, these teams are first and second on the NHL betting board with the Avs at +508 and the Knights right behind them at +550.
Oddsmakers are having a difficult time separating these Cup contenders with this game set as a pick'em.
Here are our best free Avalanche vs. Golden Knights picks and predictions for Monday, May 10, with the puck dropping at 10 p.m. ET.
Avalanche vs Golden Knights odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonWith these two teams right at the top of the Stanley Cup odds board, it's no surprise this matchup opened a pick 'em at TwinSpires. As of 7 p.m. ET, Colorado is a -118 road favorite, with the Golden Knights getting 57 percent of moneyline bets, but the Avalanche taking 68 percent of moneyline cash. "Sharp money on the Avs," TwinSpires trading analyst Zachary Lucas said. The total is stable at 6, with 70 percent of bets/55 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameAvalanche at Golden Knights betting preview
Injuries
Avalanche: Nathan MacKinnon C (Questionable), Brandon Saad LW (Out), Samuel Girard D (Out), Bowen Byram D (Out), Devan Dubnyk G (Out).
Golden Knights: Max Pacioretty LW (Questionable), Tomas Nosek LW (Out), Ryan Reaves RW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Avalanche are 13-3 in their last 16 games after allowing two goals or less in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Avalanche vs. Golden Knights.
Moneyline pick
Colorado is coming off a 3-2 win in Los Angeles on Saturday and has now won five of its previous six games. Vegas is also fresh off a win on Saturday and is an even more impressive 14-2 over its last 16 games, including a 5-2 victory against the Avalanche less than two weeks ago.
It's difficult to find a deciding factor for either team in this matchup. The Avs have an advantage when it comes to scoring (3.47 goals per game to 3.39) and power-play percentage (23.1 to 18.6) but the Knights have an edge in goals allowed (2.22 to 2.45) and penalty kill success (86.5 percent to 82.4).
A small advantage may lie in Avs goalie Philipp Grubauer, who is 28-9-1 with a 2.03 goals-against average. Keep in mind that No. 2 netminder Devan Dubnyk played in that previously mentioned 5-2 loss, and backup goaltending has been an issue for the Avs all season with Pavel Francouz on the IR.
Although Robin Lehner is expected to start for the Knights tonight — and is no slouch with a 2.30 GAA of his own — he hasn't been quite as dominant as Grubauer.
The Avs also have an advantage in the face-off circle, ranking sixth in the NHL in face-off win percentage while the Knights are 20th. And Colorado leads the league with a 58.1 percent Fenwick For Rating at even strength while Vegas is fifth at 53.5.
These differences might seem like splitting hairs but that's what happens when you look at two great teams this evenly matched.
It is worth noting that despite beating the Avs just 11 days ago, the Knights are 1-4 in their last five games against teams with a winning percentage above .600, and three of their last four wins have come in overtime. Back the Avs in a revenge spot.
PREDICTION: Colorado (-110)
Over/Under pick
These teams combined for seven goals when they met up two weeks ago but the Under has still cashed in five of seven meetings between them this season.
We mentioned that the Avs didn't have Grubauer in nets for that contest and that was a massive factor. After all, the Avs allowed just 25 shots on Dubnyk in that game, and Grubauer has been sensational against the Knights this season, going 3-2-1 with a 2.00 GAA and a save percentage of .926.
Regardless of who plays between the pipes for Vegas, Lehner or Marc-Andre Fleury, the Knights have gotten spectacular play in nets.
Both teams may also be without elite offensive players, with Colorado center Nathan Mackinnon (65 points in 47 games) and Knights winger Max Pacioretty (team-leading 24 goals) both listed as questionable after missing the last few games.
We're expecting a tight, defensive battle with a playoff atmosphere befitting of two Stanley Cup contenders. Take the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 5.5 (+105)
Avalanche vs Golden Knights betting card
- Colorado ML (-110)
- Under 5.5 (+105)
Picks made on 5/10/2021 at 12:05 p.m. ET
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