Only two games in the NHL this season have closed with a favorite of -500 or shorter and with the Toronto Maple Leafs sitting as -530 home favorites tonight vs. the Chicago Blackhawks, we could possibly see the most lopsided NHL odds of the season.
The Leafs are likely to get Auston Matthews back and with the distracting trade talks swirling around Chicago, Petr Mrazek likely starting, and Chicago playing last night, should bettors look at the player prop market for value tonight?
Find out my best bet for the Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs in my NHL picks.
Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs best odds
Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
William Nylander was the main cog in the offense with Auston Matthews out and was doing so playing with Alex Kerfoot and Calle Jarnkrok. Now, the team’s leading goal scorer will be reunited with the reigning MVP and play on the top line with Michael Bunting, as well.
The props on Nylander have gotten longer now that Matthews is returning but Nylander’s production hasn't been worse with Matthews in the lineup, as there is more ice with the attention Matthews receives. Matthews creates more offense and Nylander benefits from that, averaging 1.2 points per game with Matthews in the lineup and 0.85 in his absence.
The matchup is great, as the Blackhawks allow 36.4 shots per game on the road, which is the fourth-most in the league while playing at home is also beneficial. Nylander has thrived with the last change and getting advantageous matchups averaging 3.8 shots per game at home and hitting the Over 3.5 shots in 13 of his last 18 home games dating back to November.
The Leafs could get a lot of shots on net tonight vs. a tired Chicago team that just lost 4-0 in Montreal and has a Bottom-10 penalty kill.
Since Christmas (20 games), Nylander has recorded 12% of the team’s shots on goal and the Leafs would need 33 shots for the winger to hit the four-shot mark at this rate.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-130 at SIA)
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Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Maple Leafs are the only team in the league that’s been a -500 favorite or shorter this season, and tonight will likely be the third time as the Buds opened at -450 on the moneyline but got steamed to -525 early this morning.
This price is stating the Leafs win this game 84% of the time, but if the Bruins have never been a -500 favorite season, do the Leafs deserve to be?
This line could be an overreaction to the likely return of Auston Matthews who has missed five straight games with the team going 2-3 SU in that stretch. Matthews is worth about 25 points on the moneyline, for those counting at home.
The Leafs also get a great schedule spot, with the Blackhawks coming off a 4-0 loss in Montreal last night and could be starting former Leaf Petr Mrazek. Everything is in the Buds’ favor but this price is just insane.
Toronto has gone 1-1 in those two games as a -500 favorite or shorter and has dropped its two most recent games as a -350 favorite or shorter. On the season, the Leafs are 2-3 SU as a -350 favorite or shorter this season and are seemingly taxed more than any other team in hockey, as they’re a very publicly bet-on team.
The Leafs are also coming off a 4-3 collapse to the Blue Jackets at home on Saturday and needed Ilya Samsonov to win Friday’s game in Columbus to get the victory.
Chicago is a Bottom-5 team with a ton of trade distractions and coming off an embarrassing 4-0 loss to Jake Allen and the Canadiens last night. Toronto should win this game easily but this is the price break for me in a game that is dictated by bounces. There is ZERO value on any Leaf markets and getting any NHL hockey team at +2.5 for -110 is something every bettor should take advantage of.
It might not be my best bet, but Chicago +2.5 at -110 is certainly going into the account.
Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Leafs are -2.5 favorites on the puck line but the total is leaning to the Under 6.5. In no world should any bettor be betting on the Under if they think the Leafs can cover, and with Toronto sitting with a team total of 4.5, handicapping this Over 6.5 is basically projecting a Chicago goal total.
The Blackhawks were blanked last night in Montreal and finished with just 1.31 expected goals, per Money Puck. It wasn’t a great effort vs. a weak opponent and coming out of the All-Star break, Chicago has been held to two or fewer goals in three of its four games.
At 2.40 goals per game, the Blackhawks own the league’s lowest-scoring offense, which gets even worse on the road at 2.04. Add in a Bottom-7 power play, and it’s tough to see Chicago hitting three goals tonight — which is why the Over 2.5 is priced at +160.
Toronto will be doing the heavy lifting for the Over tonight but just because Matthews is back doesn’t mean everything will click for this team offensively. Sheldon Keefe has juggled the lines again and the power play will be different from the previous five games, when it went 5-for-12. It could take a couple of games for Matthews to get to game speed.
Samsonov has also been great and was playing like the No. 1 even before Matt Murray went down. The likely starter is coming off a 3-0 shutout of the Blue Jackets on Friday and has been elite at home with a 15-2-1 record to go along with a 2.07 GAA and .924 SV%.
I’m not rushing to bet this Under 6.5, but early money has been on the Under.
Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Blackhawks’ last six games vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs.
Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, February 15, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT, Sportsnet |
Blackhawks vs Maple Leafs key injuries
