Within Friday’s small three-game slate, there is a Central Division clash with the Minnesota Wild hosting the Chicago Blackhawks. Books are starting to respect Chicago’s tank in their quest for Connor Bedard, as Minnesota is laying over four dollars on the moneyline.
Will the Wild take care of business, or can the Blackhawks grab a victory as a large road underdog? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Blackhawks vs. Wild on December 16.
Blackhawks vs Wild best odds
Blackhawks vs Wild picks and predictions
The Minnesota Wild have begun to turn their season around recently, entering this contest amidst a three-game win streak and prevailing in nine of their last 12 games. This contest should be no different as they boast the advantage in every category one could think of.
At 5-on-5, Minnesota ranks 26th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and fourth in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, the Hawks rank just 31st and 29th, respectively, in those two categories.
The Chicago Blackhawks lineup is almost laughable in their quest to tank for Connor Bedard, which is why it traded every key piece outside of Patrick Kane during the offseason. Even Kane is likely to get dealt before this year’s trade deadline, which will be a sad but necessary day for both Kane and Hawks fans alike.
Its offense has no depth outside of the top six, while the defense bleeds goals at an extraordinarily high rate. Backing up this terrible defense is goaltender Petr Mrazek, who is the expected starter for the Blackhawks, given that they are on the second half of a back-to-back.
It has been a difficult season for Mrazek in his stint with Chicago, which is both due to his play and the team in front of him. Through 10 starts, he is 2-6-1 with a .873 SV% and 4.37 GAA.
Based on his metrics, positive regression is unlikely for the veteran netminder. If he qualified, Mrazek would rank second-to-last among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
Across the ice, goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is projected to get the start for the Wild against his former team. While it has been a difficult start to the campaign for Fleury, he is coming off one of his best starts of the season as he allowed just one goal on 21 shots for a .952 SV% against the high-powered Oilers.
While his metrics are not the best either, he still ranks ahead of Mrazek in GSAx/60 at 5-on-5. That start could be just what Fleury needed to regain some confidence, and this contest should be an easy confidence booster for the future Hall-of-Famer as well.
In this game, Minnesota boasts the better offense, defense, and goaltender. No need to overthink this one, as Minnesota should win and cover.
My best bet: Wild -1.5 (-145 at bet365)
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Blackhawks vs Wild moneyline analysis
Typically, I do not like taking the puck line for a favorite, as the value is rarely there. However, Chicago is an exception this season, as the organization is blatantly tanking.
There is an old saying that goes, “players don’t tank, organizations do.” That statement is incredibly true, and the Blackhawks’ players are not purposefully tanking, but they have clearly given up as a group.
Over the past couple of weeks, their play has gotten sloppier, lazier, and the effort is practically non-existent. For those who watched their game against the Golden Knights on Thursday evening, the Hawks were skating as if it were a scrimmage, as there was absolutely no urgency in anything they did.
The Hawks have lost 10 of their last 13 games by two or more goals, and the second half of a back-to-back against a divisional opponent on the road is a spot where that trend likely continues.
Blackhawks vs Wild Over/Under analysis
The Blackhawks are a tough team in regards to handicapping the O/U, as they are one of the few squads in the league that struggles to both score and shut down opposing offenses. Their lack of scoring options offensively would suggest taking the Under, but their uninspired defense is also capable of allowing teams to notch six goals.
This offense should struggle to score on Fleury and the Wild’s defense. Meanwhile, their defense is likely to leave Mrazek out high-and-dry once again, which is not good for a goaltender’s confidence that is clearly shattered.
As is typically the case for Chicago this season, the total is too tough to judge in this contest, given the circumstances.
Blackhawks vs Wild betting trend to know
Chicago has lost by two or more goals in 10 of its last 13 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Blackhawks vs Wild.
Blackhawks vs Wild game info
| Location: | Xcel Energy Center, Saint Paul, MN |
| Date: | Friday, December 16, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | HULU |
