The St. Louis Blues and Minnesota Wild will face off in the outdoor environment of Target Field on Saturday in the 2022 edition of the NHL Winter Classic. This year’s outdoor game could be the coldest in NHL history with temperatures expected to be below freezing.
Can the Wild find their legs after having last played on December 20? Can the Blues continue to surprise the league as one of the best teams in the West? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for the 2022 Winter Classic between the Blues and Wild.
Blues vs Wild odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Wild opened at -130 on the moneyline and have since moved slightly to -125. The total for this frigid outdoor game opened at 6 and has bounced between 5.5 and 6. Of the 12 Winter Classics, only one game has gone over six total goals.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Blues vs Wild predictions
Predictions made on 12/31/2021 at 11:34 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Blues vs Wild game info
• Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN
• Date: Saturday, January 1, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SN1, TNT
Blues vs Wild betting preview
Injuries
Blues: James Neal F (Out), Brayden Schenn F (Probable).
Wild: Jared Spurgeon D (Out), Jonas Brodin D (Questionable), Joel Eriksson Ek F (Out)
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Blues vs Wild head-to-head record (Since 2021)
Blues: 6-2 SU, 35 goals for.
Wild: 2-6 SU, 19 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Blues are 6-1 straight up in the last seven meetings with the Wild. Find more NHL betting trends for Blues vs. Wild.
Blues vs Wild picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
The NHL won’t have any problems with melting ice in this year’s NHL Winter Classic as game-time temperatures are expected to be as low as -15 degrees Fahrenheit at Target Field Saturday night. If the forecast holds, this will be the coldest outdoor game in NHL history, which should be the first disclaimer for bettors looking to get down on the outdoor event.
This is anything but a neutral-site match. The ice will be bouncy with the cold despite the talks of heaters below the ice surface, and there are a ton of other variables (line of sight in front of each goaltender, wind, snow, etc…) that should keep us from betting too much on these games.
With that preamble out of the way, let’s get down to business. The Wild and Blues have been two of the best teams in the Western Conference this season and sit in the top two spots in the Central Division. They’ve yet to meet this season, but the Blues took six of the eight meetings a season ago and outscored Minnesota 35-19 in the process.
Saturday’s projected starter for the Blues, Jordan Binnington, went 3-1-1 versus the Wild last season and looked good in his first start since December 19 on Wednesday as he held the explosive Oilers to just two goals on 28 shots. Binnington has never played in an outdoor game.
He’ll be backed by one of the most underrated and deep rosters in St. Louis that has relied heavily on the youth movement to supply the offense, which ranks seventh in the league at 3.38 goals per game. Vladimir Tarasenko leads the team in points but with Robert Thomas, Ivan Barbashev, and Jordan Kyrou all sitting in the Top 5, Craig Berube’s team has a new identity this season.
This new Blues squad is winning games at a high rate and finished December with a 7-2-2 record and the NHL's fourth-best point percentage over that stretch. Their +23 goal differential on the season ranks fourth in the league and they're just one of two teams that have a Top-5 power play and a Top-10 penalty kill.
The Blues will get to face a Minnesota team that last played on December 20 and entered the Christmas break on a four-game losing streak where they allowed 18 goals. They’re 10-3 SU at home but are 9-8 SU outside of the confines of Xcel Energy Center with a goal differential of exactly zero. Target Field and frost-bite conditions may take away any home-ice advantage the Wild have.
Confirmed Minnesota starter Cam Talbot has outdoor game experience and blanked the Jets in the Heritage Classic back in 2016, but that was half a decade ago. Talbot had a rough December that saw the 34-year-old netminder go 3-3 SU with a 3.17 GAA. He also has had to think about his six-goal performance on December 20 for over 10 days.
We have this priced closer to a pick ‘em on neutral grounds, which is what this ultimately is. Minnesota has not played for well over a week and with St. Louis dominating the series a season ago — taking six of eight — and coming in healthier and in better form, it’s the Blues on the moneyline for us.
Prediction: Blues ML (+105)
Over/Under analysis
Minnesota may be one of the better Over teams in hockey with an average of 6.63 total goals per game, but an outdoor game is a very different style of contest. Only once in the previous 12 Winter Classics have six or more total goals been scored. Over the last 28 outdoor games, the Under is 16-6-6 on totals of 6. And those were mostly with decent weather conditions.
There are talks of heaters for the ice surface but these could still be the hardest ice conditions these players have ever encountered in a professional setting. Coaches could also be inclined to use all four lines to keep players active. It’s going to be so cold the NHL has actually contemplated rescheduling it.
Looking at the matchup, the Blues held the Oilers to just two goals in their only game back from the break and took just one minor penalty against the league’s best power play. St. Louis had the third-best penalty kill in December and has surrendered just one power-play goal over its last 10 games. Power-play opportunities will be tough to come by for Minnesota.
The Wild went into the break on the back of a 7-4 loss to the Dallas Stars and we'd expect Dean Evason to be preaching some defensive responsibilities to his team over its long hiatus.
Ultimately, with Minnesota coming off an extended layoff and neither goalie impressing of late, we’re laying off the total but would rather play the Under 6. These games just seem to slow down for long stretches and we don’t see how the frigid conditions will be at all beneficial to skaters.
Prediction: Under 6 (-125)
Best bet
The Blues are 6-1 SU against the Wild in their last seven meetings dating back to April 4, 2021 with that one loss also coming in overtime. St. Louis has some impressive wins over this same Minnesota team in that stretch, which includes margins of 9-1, 7-3, and 4-0.
Only one team has played within the last 10 days and it’s not the team that entered the Christmas break on a four-game skid. The Blues are the better defensive team and Minnesota, which allows 3.00 goals per game, will be without defenseman Jared Spurgeon (20-plus minutes a game) and fellow blueliner Jonas Brodin (No. 1 on the team in time on ice) is highly questionable. The Blues looked great against the Oilers on Wednesday and should get more bodies back in the cases of forwards Barbashev (fourth in team points), Oskar Sundqvist, and Brayden Schenn. We’re taking the Blues for this winter deep freeze.
Pick: Blues ML (+105)
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