We’re set for another international classic tonight as Team Canada takes on Team USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off final.
Team USA had the luxury to rest top talents and No. 1 goalie Connor Hellebuyck in its final round-robin tilt, and my top NHL picks and Canada vs. USA predictions are calling for the Americans to take care of business on the strength of their superior goaltending and blue line.
Puck drop is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston on Thursday, February 20, with the game airing on ESPN and Sportsnet.
Canada vs USA prediction
My pick
Team USA moneyline (-110 at BET99)
My analysis
American goalie Connor Hellebuyck has stopped 45 of 47 shots for a .957 save percentage across his two starts in the tournament. It’s been business as usual from the Winnipeg Jets star after he paced the NHL with a .925 save percentage, 2.06 GAA, and 0.64 goals saved above average per 60 minutes leading into the layoff for the 4 Nations Face-Off.
Hellebuyck alone gives Team USA a huge advantage because Team Canada's No. 1 Jordan Binnington hasn’t been nearly as sharp with an .892 SV%. Additionally, while Binnington has stopped 24 of the 25 high-danger shots he’s faced (.960 SV%), I expect his good fortune to run out in that department considering his .807 SV% against high-danger shots for the St. Louis Blues during the regular season.
The Americans also drove possession during their 3-1 win with a 53.3 Corsi For percentage against Team Canada, which included a 56.4 CF% when adjusted for score and venue. Canada generated more expected goals at 5-on-5 with 2.51 to 1.38, but Team USA won the overall expected goals battle, 4.05 to 3.98.
With the margins on these rosters razor thin, I’m confident in backing the Americans because of their goaltending edge and ability to drive 5-on-5 possession alone, but this will also be a true home game for Team USA in Boston.
Canada couldn’t cash in on that edge at the Centre Bell in Montreal on Saturday, and I don't anticipate the Canadian star power to shine bright enough under the Beantown bright lights.
Read my Canada vs. USA prop predictions for more analysis ahead of puck drop tonight.
Canada vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)
Team USA moneyline
Over 5.5 goals
Team Canada Under 2.5 goals
Team USA has won the expected goals battle in all three of its games, and limited Canada to just a single goal in their round-robin meeting despite allowing 3.98 expected goals. Additionally, the Canadians finished with a 41.9 xGF% against Team Finland in their finale on Monday, including allowing 15 high-danger scoring chances compared to generating just five.
Simply put, I don't expect Team Canada to do enough to solve Hellebuyck more than twice. And, because this is a final, Canadian head coach Jon Cooper will be especially eager to have six skaters on the ice when trailing to finish out the game.
An empty-net goal will take this game Over the 5.5 total, with Team USA winning 4-2 or 5-2.
Read our full Canada vs. USA SGP predictions for more analysis ahead of game time tonight.
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Canada vs USA odds
 Canada |
 USA |
|
|---|---|---|
| -110 | Moneyline | -110 |
| +1.5 (-300) | Puck line | -1.5 (+240) |
| Over 5.5 (+100) | Total | Under 6 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of BET99.
Canada vs USA injury update
Team USA brought in defenseman Brett Pesce and forward Tage Thompson for reinforcements ahead of Thursday’s final. Vancouver Canucks defenseman Quinn Hughes did not make the trip to Boston after originally being selected to the squad.
Defenseman Charlie McAvoy was already ruled out after sustaining a right shoulder injury against Finland last Thursday. Otherwise, American head coach Mike Sullivan said his entire roster is available tonight, including Brady Tkachuk (lower body), but the bench boss wouldn’t confirm his roster for the final.
The Canadians will have winger Seth Jarvis back in the lineup, with Travis Konecny drawing out. Team Canada already brought in defenseman Thomas Harley when blueliner Shea Theodore (upper body) was injured, and assistant captain Cale Makar was unable to play Saturday against the Americans because of an illness.
Makar returned to action Monday against Finland, and he’ll be in the lineup for the final tonight.
How to watch Canada vs USA
| Location | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date | Thursday, 2-20-2025 |
| Puck drop | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet, ESPN |
Not intended for use in MA.
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