The Vancouver Canucks will look to win their third consecutive road game when they face the New York Islanders tonight. New York is a short home favorite in the NHL odds, and the Isles are also in a better schedule spot with the Canucks playing their third road game in four nights.
Vancouver has exploded for 12 goals over its past two games and head to UBS Arena with the most goals per game (3.88) in the league. New York has also struggled defensively for most of the season, surrendering the 11th-most gpg (3.26)
Add perennial Vezina Trophy candidate Ilya Sorokin ho-humming his way to an uncharacteristic .909 SV% and 3.17 GAA, and New York sitting in third place in the Metropolitan Division is at least somewhat surprising. Vancouver likely turns to backup Casey DeSmith on Tuesday, so per usual, goaltending will have a major impact.
Here are my free NHL picks for the Canucks vs. Islanders on Tuesday, January 9.
Canucks vs Islanders odds
Canucks vs Islanders predictions
There is a huge statistical advantage for the Vancouver Canucks in this matchup, and I think the schedule spot is being priced into the odds too much. All road trips and back-to-back sets aren’t equal, and in this case, Vancouver has only traveled from Newark to Manhattan and now to Elmont over four days.
The Canucks are healthy, and backup goaltender Casey DeSmith has been serviceable with a 6-3-2 record, .914 save percentage, and 2.58 GAA. This will also be the sixth time the Canucks are playing for the second consecutive night, and DeSmith’s fourth start in a back–to–back spot.
My biggest concern with the New York Islanders is they don’t drive possession, and it’s proven to be incredibly difficult to consistently win despite being caved in by opponents night in, and night out.
The Islanders rank 30th in five-on-five Corsi For percentage (45.4%), and they’ve lost the 5-on-5 possession battle in five of six games out of the holiday break. Additionally, Vancouver’s possession metrics are slightly misleading.
When a team is leading the league in goals — including the second-most first-period tallies and most second-period markers — you’re playing with the lead a lot (Canucks average more time per game with the lead than any other team at 29:47).
So, while the Canucks sport an unimpressive 49.5 CF% at 5-on-5, when it’s adjusted for score and venue, Vancouver climbs to an 11th-best 51.2% mark. For comparison, New York remains at 30th with a 45.3 CF% at 5-on-5 when adjusted for score and venue.
I’m anticipating a close game, but there’s a notable advantage for Vancouver in my ratings. The Canucks sport a fourth-ranked offense and a ninth-ranked defense with the Islanders respectively checking out at 20th and 27th.
My best bet: Canucks moneyline (+100 at SIA)
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Canucks vs Islanders same-game parlay
Canucks moneyline
Under 7.5 goals
I’m looking to keep it simple tonight by pairing my best bet on the Canucks moneyline with the Under 7.5 goals. Vancouver has scored six goals in back-to-back games with a team shooting percentage of 17.4%, so I’m anticipating statistical correction kicking in and goals to be harder to come by. This is especially true if Ilya Sorokin plays to his potential, and he's been far better on home ice with an 8-2-6 record and a .917 SV%.
Because I’m also anticipating the Islanders to struggle to generate consistent offensive pressure and lose the 5-on-5 possession battle, this Under 7.5 goals leg boosts the odds up without adding an avalanche of risk. The betting market is already moving to the Under 6.5, too.
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Canucks vs Islanders moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There’s been movement to the Vancouver side of this moneyline at SIA. The Islanders opened as a -130 favorite, and now they’re trading at -120 as of Tuesday afternoon. It’s been a similar story through bet365. I’m not anticipating any additional adjustments leading into puck drop, and the line movement we’ve seen aligns with Vancouver dismantling the rock-solid New York Rangers 6-3 on Monday.
This total has my attention because of the highlighted negative regression ahead of the team shooting percentage for the Canucks, and Sorokin’s high-end play on home ice. Additionally, as noted, the market is also moving to the Under 6.5 goals. SIA opened this total with the Under 6.5 goals priced at +100, and it’s moved to 6.5 -115 as of Tuesday afternoon.
Canucks vs Islanders betting trend to know
The Islanders have only won two of their past six games, and the Canucks have won 10 of their past 14. Find more NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Islanders.
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Canucks vs Islanders game info
| Location: | UBS Arena, Belmont Park, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 9, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNP, MSGSN |
Canucks vs Islanders latest injuries
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