It’s hockey night in Canada, folks, and what better way to celebrate that than with an all-Canadian showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Vancouver Canucks?
Both of these teams are opposite where we thought they’d be in the standings heading into the season, yet the NHL odds suggest Toronto is still expected to beat the red-hot Canucks Saturday night. However, I’m not as convinced of that as the sportsbooks seem to be.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this November 11 matchup.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs odds
Canucks vs Maple Leafs predictions
This cross-coast rivalry between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vancouver Canucks has given us some good excitement over the years, and I’m sure tonight will deliver once again.
With the Maple Leafs’ win over Calgary last night, they’re now 7-5-2 on the season. As for Vancouver, that team continues its tear across the league, riding a five-game winning streak into this one with a 10-2-1 record for the year.
The Canucks have been the surprise of the season so far, with a league-best 4.5 goals per game while also getting Vezina-worthy goaltending. This doesn’t bode well for Toronto, which has struggled to keep the puck out of its net on home ice season and has preyed on weak goaltending to outscore their defensive woes. I’m not so sure that will be a winning formula against Vancouver.
Thatcher Demko is the projected starter for the game, and he’s on fire this year with a 1.86 GAA and a .925 SV% to go along with his league-leading 13.5 goals saved above expected. In his eight starts against Toronto in his career, Demko is 5-3 with a .918 sv% and has won five of the last six starts. Sure, Toronto has talented offensive weapons, but Demko is very capable of stealing games and making life difficult for opposing shooters.
As for the offense, Vancouver is dominating scoreboards this season too, outscoring their opponents by 26 goals through 13 games. That’s two goals per game better than their opponent on average. As for Toronto, they’re -2 in goal differential, being outscored 50-52. That number is much worse on home ice, where the Leafs have been horrendous, allowing a league-high 4.75 goals per game. With Ilya Samsonov’s 4.11 GAA in net for the Buds tomorrow, who knows how out of hand the game could get? His last outing, he didn’t even last a full period before being pulled.
Another edge for the Canucks tonight will be their power play, which ranks fourth in the NHL, taking on the 26th-ranked penalty kill. If the Leafs get sloppy on night two of a back-to-back, it could lead to some more penalties, which clearly favor Vancouver.
So, to review: The Canucks are the fresher team and also have an advantage on offense, defense, goaltending, and special teams. They’ve also won seven of the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. I think there’s really good value on Vancouver at plus-money tonight, as they’d probably be the favorite if Toronto weren’t such a public team.
My best bet: Canucks moneyline (+110 at SIA)
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Canucks vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Canucks moneyline
Over alt total 5.5 goals
Each team Over 1.5 goals
For the first leg of my same-game parlay, we’re rolling with my best bet and taking Vancouver on the moneyline. It would take a tremendous defensive effort or a monstrous performance for the Leafs to win this game. Neither do I deem likely in this matchup against the league’s best offense coupled with a Vezina-worthy goaltender.
Next up, I’m taking I’m taking the Over on the alternate total of 5.5 goals. The Over is undefeated during this homestand for the Leafs (4-0) and could very well hit again tonight with the way Vancouver’s offense is cooking. However, there’s always the chance of Demko standing on his head tonight, similar to his last outing against Toronto when he stopped 36 of 37 shots en route to a Canucks 4-1 win.
For the final leg of my parlay, I’ll take each team to go Over 1.5 goals. If we’re going to see six total goals in this game, it’s likely both sides will light the lamp at least twice. The Leafs average 3.88 goals per game themselves on home ice, while the Canucks have averaged 4.29 goals on the road, so two goals from both sides should be more than doable tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Canucks vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game as a slight favorite at -135, while Vancouver pays +110 as the road dog. The Canucks moneyline play is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings against Toronto. Again, Toronto is playing its fourth game in six nights, which could result in fatigue and sloppy play for the Leafs — and I’d fully expect Vancouver to capitalize. Plus, they score more and allow a heck of a lot less. Vancouver’s got the winning formula.
The total for tonight's game is set at 6.5 goals. The Over is favored at -125, with the Under getting +105 odds. The Over is 6-2 at Scotiabank Arena this year and has covered every game of this homestand. With the Canucks also hitting Overs consistently, going 4-1-1 in their last six games, I figure there’s a good chance we see a perfect sweep of the Over at Scotiabank Arena this week.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The underdog is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between Toronto and Vancouver. Find more NHL betting trends for Canucks vs. Maple Leafs.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, November 11, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, Sportsnet |
Canucks vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
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