Coming off a disappointing loss last night, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have a quick turnaround as they host the publicly criticized Vancouver Canucks and their generous penalty kill.
The betting market has already moved 35 points in favor of the visitors, as the combination of inconsistent play and a possible rookie goalie making his NHL debut makes the Leafs hard to trust at their -185 price tag.
Check out my free NHL picks and predictions for Canucks vs. Maple Leafs.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs best odds
Canucks vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Leafs were a letdown on the moneyline last night but now they welcome the 4-7-3 Vancouver Canucks and their league-worst penalty kill to Scotiabank Arena for the second game of a back-to-back.
Toronto could be going with rookie goalie Keith Petruzzelli, who has never played a game in the NHL but is 6-0 in the AHL this year. There is plenty of variance betting on the Leafs tonight but this is a great spot for Toronto’s power play.
The Canucks own a 61.7% success rate on the penalty kill, which is by and far the worst mark in the league. They’ve allowed a power-play goal in 10 straight games and aren’t doing themselves any favors by taking the eighth most penalties per game in hockey.
Thatcher Demko has also been a shell of himself this season, as the Vancouver goaltender is 1-7 SU with a .874 save percentage. Even if the Cancuks decide to go with Spencer Martin, he still has a goals against average of 3.45 and a goals saved above expected/60 (GSAAx/60) worse than Erik Kallgren. On the season, the tandem has a save percentage of 69% when facing an opposing power play.
It’s tough to make a bad choice between William Nylander (+140), Mitchell Marner (+155), Morgan Rielly (+190), or John Tavares (+150) to record a power-play point but with Marner getting most of the touches, and teams shading over to Auston Matthews, getting the PP facilitator at +155 is my best bet Saturday night.
My best bet: Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power play points (+155 at bet365)
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Canucks vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
The Leafs were a disappointing -150 loser on the moneyline last night with a good matchup vs. the Pens. Bettors were quick to fade the Leafs, as tonight’s ML opened at -225 on the home side but sits as long as -185 as of Saturday morning.
Toronto has notoriously played down to its opponents this season, and four of its eight losses have come as a -175 favorite or shorter. Now it hosts a Vancouver team that has been called out by its President Jim Rutherford for a poor start on Monday, and subsequently split a back-to-back to Ottawa and Montreal this week. This is not a great spot to lay the juice with the Buds tonight.
Despite the loss last night, Toronto played decently for 40 minutes before collapsing in the third period. The Leafs failed to get any type of average goaltending as Erik Kallgren allowed three goals on 22 shots with a -1.25 goals saved above expected. Over the team’s last two games, Kallgren has allowed seven goals on 42 shots and earned a pair of losses.
Toronto might be starting another rookie in net, as AHL goalie Keith Petruzzelli could make his NHL debut with Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray still unavailable. Petruzzelli has a 6-0 record with a 2.31 GAA and a .922 save percentage over six games in the AHL this season
Petruzzelli is a big (6-foot-5) former third-round pick and will benefit greatly from a team that has been suppressing shots, as the Leafs have allowed just 118 shots on goal over their last five games (23.6 per game). However, the Leafs still sit second in the league in giveaways and what they take away in shooting volume, opponents are making up for it with quality chances.
The Canucks have issues of their own in net, with Thatcher Demko having just one win in eight games on the season and sporting one of the worst GSAAx/60 in hockey. Spencer Martin has also played below league average, which is also not helping this struggling team.
Both teams have big flaws and consistency has not been either team’s forte. In saying that, there is no way I’m betting on the Buds tonight at this price, on the second game of a back-to-back, with a goalie making his NHL debut vs. an opponent that has been getting called out by its front office. The value is on Vancouver at +165 but I wouldn’t play it unless it was +185 or longer.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
Last night was another Toronto game with early goals (three in the first 22 minutes) that ultimately hit the Under. On the season, the Buds are 4-10-1 O/U and I’ve been confidently hitting the Under 6.5s every game but tonight there are too many variables when it comes to predicting another low-scoring affair.
First, the Cancucks’ issues on the penalty kill could create multiple goals from the home side and certainly something that could sink this Under.
Next is goaltending. It’s tough to judge what kind of performance Petruzzelli will have in his first NHL game. He has been great in the AHL, but Toronto’s giveaway issues could hang him out to dry. Neither Vancouver goalie can be trusted right now either, as the team sits with the third-worst GAA in hockey at 4.07.
Motivation is also a factor here, as the Leafs will be looking to bounce back after an awful third-period collapse last night while the Canucks have been publicly criticized by their president this week in the media.
Add in the Leafs playing on the back end of a back-to-back and the Canucks wrapping up a three-game East Coast road trip and there is a ton of variance in this game. It could finish 3-0 or 7-6 and neither score would surprise me. I’m off the total tonight.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Canucks are 1-12 SU in their last 13 meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Canucks vs Maple Leafs.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, November 12 , 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Canucks vs Maple Leafs key injuries
