The battle for positioning within the Metropolitan Division is front-and-center when the Washington Capitals visit the New York Rangers tonight.
This will be the first meeting between the two clubs since the season opener and the teams won't play again until the regular-season finale. The Rangers sit third in the Metro — four points ahead of the Capitals (with two games in hand) — and are NHL betting favorites at Madison Square Garden, where they have the sixth-best points percentage in the league.
Despite New York's home dominance, do our free NHL picks and predictions like the Blueshirts against a Caps team that's hot when playing on the road?
Capitals vs Rangers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened at Rangers -127/Capitals +113 and most books are still hanging around that number as of 12:45 p.m. ET, with some going as far as New York -133 and others dealing Washington as low as +105. The total opened at 6, which books showing either that number (shaded to the Under) or moving to 5.5, favoring the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Capitals vs Rangers predictions
Predictions made on 2/24/2022 at 12:49 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Capitals vs Rangers game info
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Capitals vs Rangers betting preview
Key injuries
Capitals: T.J. Oshie RW (Day-to-Day), Justin Schultz D (Day-to-Day), Vitek Vanecek G (Day-to-Day), Anthony Mantha RW (Out).
Rangers: Kaapo Kakko RW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Capitals vs Rangers head-to-head record
Capitals: 5-4-0, 28 goals for.
Rangers: 4-5-0, 27 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1 in the Rangers' last six home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Rangers.
Capitals vs Rangers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
After a bit of a malaise to start 2022, the Capitals are beginning to again look like the offensive powerhouse we've been accustomed to seeing. Washington averaged just 2.18 goals over its first 11 games of the new year (29th in the league) — scoring more than two goals in regulation just three times and topping three goals just once — with the power play ranking 30th at an abysmal 9.7% conversion rate.
Since then, however, the Caps have been lighting the lamp with regularity, sitting sixth in the NHL at 3.88 gpg (in eight games), scoring fewer than three goals just once, and converting on 28% of man-advantage chances (also sixth in the league over that span).
What's even more surprising is that the Capitals do their best work on the road, where they have won five straight games (compared to five straight home losses).
You'd expect them to be tested against a New York side that has won 16 of its last 21 games at MSG and is 2-0-1 in three post-ASB games... but let's look at those three games:
- A 2-1 shootout win against a Boston team without Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand.
- A 3-2 shootout loss against Detroit.
- A 2-1 win at Ottawa without Thomas Chabot, Drake Batherson, and Josh Norris.
What do they all have in common? The Rangers started out poorly — and fell behind — in the first period of each game (continuing a season-long trend of slow starts), the offense continues to struggle to capitalize on chances (five actual goals against 9.31 expected), and goalie Igor Shesterkin continues to carry this team to victories with 3.93 goals saved above expected (per Moneypuck) and a .958 SV%.
The one positive is that New York overall had a 5-on-5 Corsi For Percentage above 50% for those three games, a big upgrade considering the team is dead last in the NHL in 5-on-5 CF% for the year (per Natural Stat Trick), but the lack of even-strength finishing is concerning — especially in tonight's matchup.
New York has relied way too much on its top two lines (anchored by the duos of Mika Zibanejad/Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin/Ryan Strome) for scoring, with the third and fourth lines providing very little aside from some hitting and energy — which is where the Caps have a major edge.
The Zibanejad line also serves as the team's de facto shutdown group, which generally suppresses its offensive output. Assuming they will break even against Washington's top line of Alex Ovechkin/Evgeny Kuznetsov/Conor Sheary, the Rangers are still at a disadvantage as the Panarin/Strome line can be matched by Washington with Nick Backstrom/Tom Wilson, while New York's floundering third line will struggle to keep up with Washington's trio of rookie Connor McMichael and veterans Lars Eller and T.J. Oshie — who has 13 points in 18 games and is expected to return after missing the last six weeks.
The Rangers have a big advantage in goaltending but considering New York's offense has been less-than-impressive recently against weaker foes — and the Caps are boasting more offensive depth in this game — we're going to actually take the plus-money with the road side in what is otherwise a clash between two relatively even teams.
Prediction: Capitals ML (+105)
Over/Under analysis
It's already well-documented why Shesterkin is the Vezina Trophy frontrunner this season, but his numbers at home are staggering: A 1.96 GAA, .941 SV%, and 17.44 goals saved above average.
He's given up two goals or fewer in four straight home games (and five outings overall) and has allowed more than three goals just once in his last 23 appearances, with a sub-.921 SV% just four times during that span. It's no surprise that, combined with New York's offensive issues, the Under has cashed in each of Shesterkin's last three games and six of his last seven starts.
Ilya Samsonov is expected to start for the Capitals and while he's been league-average since January 1, sitting 48th in save percentage (.908), 64th in goals-against average (3.36), and posting a -1.41 GSAA, the Rangers have recently had issues scoring against the likes of Filip Gustavsson (3.66 GAA, .896 SV% this year), Thomas Greiss (3.23 GAA/.900 SV%), and Philipp Grubauer (3.18 GAA, .887 SV%) as they've topped two goals just twice in their last six games.
Expecting the Blueshirts to score a whack of goals against a Capitals team that is limiting high-danger chances against (eighth-fewest per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 over the last month) seems like a terrible bet.
The Rangers do have an avenue to cash in on the power play, where they are No. 1 in the league (36.4%) over the last month and face a Capitals team that has given up a power-play goal in four of its last five games, but we don't see that being enough for New York to put up a crooked number.
Neither team is likely going to score much tonight, so we'll lean towards this game finishing Under.
Prediction: Under 6 (-125)
Best bet
How important is the New York power play to the team's offense?
Well, since January 1, the Rangers are averaging 0.89 ppg/game (second in the league) while also getting a league-high 30.77% of all goals (excluding empty-netters), one of just two teams at 30%.
Narrowing it down to the Rangers' last 10 games, they've scored at least one power-play goal in eight of them and have seen man-advantage goals account for a whopping 38.7% of their non-empty net offense — with superstar Artemi Panarin at the core.
Head coach Gerard Gallant made a key switch with the unit, flipping Panarin to the right side of the ice and Mika Zibanejad on the left. This has allowed Zibanejad to be available to unleash his lethal one-timer (which is more effective than his still very good playmaking skills) while creating more space for Panarin, who isn't as dangerous a threat with a one-timer... but causes major problems when he has the option to distribute or shoot with his underrated wrist shot.
It's led to the Russian winger logging 11 power-play points (three goals, eight assists) over his last 10 games, as he only have 15 total points during that span.
As mentioned above, the Rangers will get some power-play chances tonight, and while it might be the only offense they get... it's a pretty solid bet that they will cash in at least one in against Washington's struggling PK — and Panarin will be at the heart of it.
Pick: Artemi Panarin Over 0.5 power-play points (+116)
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