Devils vs Rangers Picks and Predictions: New York Takes Round 2 in the Battle of the Hudson River

The Battle of the Hudson River picks up again tonight when the New Jersey Devils cross the Lincoln Tunnel to take on the New York Rangers.

This is the second of four meetings between the cross-river rivals, with New York winning the first chapter at home in November and sitting as NHL betting favorites again at MSG.

New Jersey, however, is a slightly different team now than it was four months ago — does that affect which way our Devils vs. Rangers NHL picks and predictions will lean for this Friday night showdown?

Devils vs Rangers odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Rangers opened at -163 for tonight's matchup and some books are still offering that number, while others have gone to the -175/-180 range. This is a big drop from the closing line of New York -141 for November's contest (also at MSG). The total opened at 6.0, still holding there at the time of writing with a slight shading to the Over — which is more than the previous matchup's closing number of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Devils vs Rangers predictions

• Prediction: Rangers 3ML (-105)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-115)
• Best bet: Bratt Over 2.5 sog (-130)

Predictions made on 3/4/2022 at 11:43 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Devils vs Rangers game info

• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
• Date: Friday, March 4, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: MSG, MSG+

Devils vs Rangers betting preview

Key injuries

Devils: Mackenzie Blackwood G (Out), Jonathan Bernier G (Out), Mile Wood LW (Out), Janne Kuokkanen LW (Out).
Rangers: Kaapo Kakko RW (Out), Kevin Rooney C (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Devils vs Rangers head-to-head record (since 2020)

Devils: 2-6-1, 22 goals for.
Rangers: 7-2-0, 39 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1-1 in the last 10 meetings in New York. Find more NHL betting trends for Devils vs. Rangers.

Devils vs Rangers picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Did we mention how the Devils are a little different now than they were in that November game? Well, they're actually quite a lot different, mainly because this time they have star C Jack Hughes in the lineup — who is red-hot right now. The second-year standout has points in eight straight games and 13 of his last 14 overall, including a goal in six of his previous seven contests, which has powered a surge in New Jersey's offense, as the Devils have 3+ goals in five straight games — and have tallied at least five goals in five of their previous eight contests.

The Devils also have some different faces between the pipes, as injuries have forced the team to play its third and fourth options on the depth chart... but one of those netminders has looked impressive in limited action. Rookie Nico Daws, a third-round pick in 2020, is tonight's expected starter and had been back-and-forth from AHL Binghamton this year but stopped 73 of 76 shots in wins against Pittsburgh and Vancouver before giving up four goals to Columbus in his last outing. His 2.79 GAA, .909 SV%, and 50% quality start rate aren't outstanding — but they're significantly better than the miserable numbers every other Devils goalie has posted thus far.

However, the Rangers also will have a slightly different look in tonight's game — mainly the presence of Vezina Trophy favorite Igor Shesterkin. Backup Alexandar Georgiev played in the first matchup (a 4-3 NYR win in a shootout) and posted a -0.66 goals saved above expected (per Moneypuck), whereas tonight New Jersey will likely have to deal with a goalie who gave up three goals and has a .906 SV% in his last outing — which qualifies as his worst start in six weeks.

It was an uncharacteristic game for New York, which saw Shesterkin give up three goals on three shots in a 2:14 span to end the second period (albeit all three goals were not really his fault), but Igor slammed the door shut on the remaining 29 shots over the other 58 minutes and — perhaps more un-Rangers like — the team generated a lot of 5-on-5 offense in a 5-3 win over St. Louis.

The Rangers logged four even-strength goals on Wednesday (including an empty-netter), which was just the second time in the last 12 games they've scored more than two goals at even strength as the team is 30th in ES goals for per 60 minutes (per Natural Stat Trick) and 26th in total goals per game during that span.

The biggest reason for New York's poor 5-on-5 offense has been an utter lack of scoring depth, but a bright spot has been the top line of Mika Zibanejad-Chris Kreider-Alexis Lafreniere. The trio has been together 24% of the time at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games, posting a 55.71 Corsi For Percentage, scoring 72.73% of all goals when they're on the ice, and having an expected goals for percentage of 62.57%.

With a top line that is carrying the play and can match up with Hughes and New Jersey's top unit, an advantage in nets — despite Daws' recent strong play, it's a small sample size compared to Shesterkin, who had gone seven straight games with two or fewer goals and at least a .944 SV% prior to Wednesday — and the fourth-best points percentage at home this season (compared to New Jersey having the third-worst road points percentage in the league), we're going to lean with the Blueshirts to come away with another win tonight.

Paying -160 is a little pricy for our liking, but if we back the Rangers on the 3-way moneyline (a.k.a. to win in regulation time), we cant bring that down to nearly even money... which is fantastic value for the better team.

Prediction: Rangers 3-way moneyline (-105)

Over/Under analysis

How hot has the Devils' offense been? Since January 31 (an 11-game span), New Jersey is third in the NHL with 4.18 goals per game, second in 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes (4.13), ninth in 5-on-5 xGF/60 (2.71), and fifth with a 26.7% power-play efficiency.

However, during this stretch, the Devils are also 32nd with 4.27 goals against per game, 26th with 3.1 GA/60 at 5-on-5, and 19th with a 78.5% penalty kill. Now, most of that has come without Daws playing between the pipes, but New Jersey is still not exactly playing airtight defense — and as a result the Over has cashed in eight of its last 11 games (including a push on a total of 7.0 Tuesday against Columbus).

The Rangers are riding a two-game Over streak, but Wednesday marked just the second time in Shesterkin's last 10 starts that a game has gone Over, as Igor simply has not been giving up many goals — but are there more reasons to like this game to go Over tonight?

First, there are the man advantage units. In addition to the Devils being a Top-5 unit over the last five weeks, they converted a power-play goal in four of their last five games, while the Rangers have surrendered a PPG in two of their last three outings and are just league-average on the PK since the end of January.

Conversely, we mentioned that NJ's PK has been even less effective lately — it's given up a PPG in three of four games and has allowed opponents to convert on five of their last 12 chances — while New York has had one of the most fearsome power plays in hockey all season with the likes of Zibanejad, Kreider, Artemi Panarin, and Adam Fox.

It's not a stretch to see each team cash in on the man advantage tonight, and while Daws has looked solid lately, he's not exactly a sure bet, especially in a hostile Madison Square Garden. Even if Igor has another strong outing, we think enough goals can get scratched across that we can top — or at least push — this total.

The Over has also cashed in 18 of the last 26 head-to-head meetings (and eight of the last 10 at MSG), so we'll lean with another higher-scoring affair tonight.

Prediction: Over 6 (-115)

Best bet

While Hughes has been getting all the offensive attention lately, New Jersey's most consistent shooter (and arguably most consistent forward all year) has been Jesper Bratt.

The 23-year-old winger has been playing alongside Nico Hischier and Pavel Zacha, forming a second line that over the last eight games has posted a CF% of 61.64 at 5-on-5 (45 shot attempts to 28 against), with Bratt overall leading the team with 27 shots (3.37 per game) during that stretch.

He is facing a sog total tonight of 2.5, a number he has topped in four straight games and six of his last seven, and faces a Rangers team that is giving up 32 shots per game over the last month (12th-most in the league). With Bratt's line unlikely to face the Rangers' primary shutdown units — that honor goes to Hughes & Co. — Bratt should have some more room to operate and top his shots total again tonight.

Pick: Jesper Bratt Over 2.5 shots on goal (-130)

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