The Toronto Maple Leafs have another favorable matchup tonight facing the Anaheim Ducks, who were just shut out in Ottawa last night. However, after opening at -400 and moving to -425 — their second shortest moneyline price of the season — should bettors be looking at the prop market for value instead of the side or total?
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Ducks vs. Maple Leafs.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs best odds
Ducks vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Leafs’ prop prices are very taxed today thanks to the matchup. Players’ shot totals are up to 3.5, which is the Anaheim effect, while Mitch Marner, John Tavares, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander all have point totals of 1.5 for the first time this season.
Even the Big Four’s power-play point markets are excessive — all +110 or shorter — however, Rasmus Sandin, who has taken over the point with the man advantage and is coming off a game where he recorded two power-play helpers, is priced at +270 to record a point on the PP.
That price difference between the shortest (-120 Matthews) to Sandin is too long considering the touches Sandin gets and his PP ice time — 4:28 per game over the last five.
The Anaheim penalty kill is also the worst unit in hockey, at 66% on the season. They allowed two power-play goals last night and 11 over their last nine games.
When considering the prices of the other four members of Leafs’ first power-play unit and the matchup, Sandin to record a power play point at +270 is great value when the other four are around -110.
If power-play markets aren't available to you, I think the Leafs' team total Over 4.5 at +114 is also a better than 50% chance to win.
My best bet: Rasmus Sandin Over 0.5 power play points (+270)
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Ducks vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Nobody is rushing out to bet the Leafs at -425 or even the -1.5 at -180, but oddsmakers did adjust the line from -400 to -425 this morning, showing that the market likes the Leafs even at this steep price — and what’s not to like?
The Leafs haven’t lost in regulation since November 11 and are 11-0-3 over that stretch. They’re averaging 3.64 goals per game and have a league-best 2.00 GAA over the last 30 days. The power play is heating up with four goals over its last two games, while the penalty kill has allowed a goal in just three of its last 10 games and is the No.4 PK over the last 30 days.
The Leafs sport the best top four in all of hockey as the play of Marner, Matthews, Tavares, and Nylander has put each member of the quartet in the Top 50 in points. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander also sit in the Top 18. Sheldon Keefe’s move to split up Marner and Matthews has produced elite results, as Marner is currently riding a league-best 22-game point streak and the Bunting-Matthews-Nylander line has also been great.
This Toronto team is playing committed team defense and getting healthier on the blue line with TJ Brodie back and Jordie Benn ready to return soon. Pierre Engvall will also return for the home side after serving a one-game suspension.
The Leafs haven’t confirmed a goalie but should likely turn to Ilya Samsonov, who is coming off a shutout over the Kings and is 8-2 SU on the season with a 1.88 GAA, the second-best mark in hockey.
Then there are the Ducks. To their credit, they beat the Leafs in their last meeting in late October, but Toronto is a much different team now and has gone 14-1-5 since that loss while the Ducks are 6-13-2 with a league-worst 4.10 GAA and 37.6 shots allowed per game since the meeting.
The Ducks, incredibly, have just one win in regulation this season entering their 30th game tonight, so even the victories have come with some coin-flipping of extra time.
Veteran John Gibson will likely start for the visitors after watching last night. He’s 1-2-2 in his last five with a 3.95 GAA and a sub-.900 save percentage.
Ultimately this is a pretty steep price. The Ducks have never been longer than +270 all season and are 1-6 SU as +200 dogs or longer. The Leafs have been a -400 favorite or shorter just once this season (-525 in a 4-2 loss to Arizona) but since then are 3-0 SU as a -250 favorite or shorter. The Leafs’ issues of playing down to their opponent were more of an early-season problem.
There is a chance that Leafs lose respect for their opponent tonight but since the Ducks won the last meeting, there is more incentive for Toronto to turn this into point night instead of a night off.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Leafs come into tonight 7-3 to the Under in their last 10 and just played in their first game of the season that finished with more than seven combined goals (a 5-4 OT win vs. Calgary).
Samsonov is 9-1 to the Under in his 10 starts and leads all NHL goalies in goals saved above expected/60 (GSAx/60). That’s a bad matchup for an Anaheim offense that was shut out last night and has scored one or fewer goals in five of its last 10 games. Even the Anaheim power play ranks tied for dead last in the league, and no team has scored fewer 5-on-5 goals.
The total opened at 6.5 after opening at 6 in the Leafs’ previous game. The market has moved slightly to the Over but I wouldn’t expect the visitors to contribute too much tonight to the total.
The Leafs’ team total of 4.5 paying +114 to the Over might be the better bet here. I don't see a circumstance where this game hits the Over 6.5 without the Leafs scoring five goals. Even if the Ducks score two, Toronto will have empty-net chances if they lead 4-2 late and the +114 price for the team total is better than the -115 price for the Over 6.5.
The Leafs also have point streaks to worry about, with Marner riding a 22-game point streak and Michael Bunting sporting an 8-game streak. That should keep both top lines looking for points if this game gets lopsided and Marner and Bunting haven't hit the scoresheet yet.
If you’re looking for an Over, take the Leafs’ team total Over 4.5 at +114
Ducks vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 6-0 in their last six games vs. Western Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Ducks vs Maple Leafs.
Ducks vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 13, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, Bally Sports SoCal |
Ducks vs Maple Leafs key injuries
