The Calgary Flames have won back-to-back games coming out of the break and gotten themselves back within a point of a playoff spot.
However, they have a tough task ahead of them Thursday night against a red-hot Lightning squad that has picked up six consecutive victories.
My Flames vs. Lightning predictions see a tight game in the offing, with a marquee goaltending matchup being front-and-center.
Let’s take a closer look with my NHL picks for February 27.
Flames vs Lightning prediction
My Flames pick
Under 6 (-115 at BET99)
My Flames analysis
The Calgary Flames love low scoring games. They live for them, even. Almost every night they’re totaled at 6 (or lower) and yet they own a 21-35-1 O/U record on the year.
Led by Dustin Wolf, they continue to get excellent goaltending on a consistent basis. The rookie has exceeded even the highest of expectations, saving more than 10 goals above expectation while posting a 20-11-3 record for a Flames team that wasn’t supposed to compete for the playoffs this season.
He has given the Flames a fighting chance nightly. Knowing they can reliably get saves from Wolf, they have rarely had to exit their comfort zone and been forced into track-meet type games where they don’t have the horses to keep up.
They’ll once again be relying on Wolf to keep things tight against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Based on what we’ve seen from him all season long, it’s a challenge he has the ability to rise to.
While the Lightning have done some damage offensively of late, only four of their last 10 games have gone Over the number.
Having an excellent goaltender of their own in Andrei Vasilevskiy is a big reason why. He has allowed three goals or less in all but one start since December 1 and has conceded just two goals over two games since the 4 Nations tournament concluded.
He looks well rested, rejuvenated, and ready to be a force for the Lightning as we enter the home stretch of the regular season.
Given the excellent goaltending matchup, the Flames’ struggles creating offense on the road, and the fact neither team takes a ton of penalties, this isn’t a game we should see fireworks in.
Flames vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 6
Jonathan Huberdeau Over 1.5 shots on goal
Brayden Point Over 2.5 shots on goal
The Lightning have given up a lot of shot volume to wingers of late. In fact, no team has allowed more shots to the position group over the last 10 games.
Jonathan Huberdeau is not a shoot-first player, per se, but he’s quietly put up strong numbers. He’s recorded multiple shots in 61% of his games this season and 15 of the past 20.
Playing 18-20 minutes against a team giving up plenty of shots to wingers, there should be at least a couple of opportunities for Huberdeau to test Vasilevskiy in this game.
Going the other way, this is a solid situational spot for Brayden Point. He has feasted on home soil all season, recording 3+ shots in 65% of his games in Tampa Bay.
Point made the most of this matchup last time around, recording three shots on seven attempts in Calgary back in December.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Flames vs Lightning odds
Flames vs Lightning live odds
Flames vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Calgary +1.5 (-138) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Calgary +190 | Tampa Bay -220
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-107) | Under 6 (-107)
Odds courtesy of BET99
Flames vs Lightning trend
Jonathan Huberdeau has piled up 2+ shots in five of his last six games vs. Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Lightning.
How to watch Flames vs Lightning
| Location | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Thursday, 2-27-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Sportsnet |
Flames vs Lightning latest injuries
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