The Vegas Golden Knights and Tampa Bay Lightning have been perennial playoff teams over the past handful of years, with each side possessing plenty of firepower.
My Golden Knights vs. Lightning predictions see Shea Theodore making noise against a Tampa defense showing red flags early on.
Let’s take a closer look in my NHL picks for Thursday, October 17.
Golden Knights vs Lightning prediction
My best bet
Shea Theodore Over 0.5 points (+105 at bet365)
My analysis
Shea Theodore has five points through his first four games this season and leads the Vegas Golden Knights in time on ice.
Vegas has piled up 95 shot attempts, 54 scoring chances, and nine goals during Theodore’s minutes, and the defenseman ranks at or near the top of the team in each of those categories.
The forwards Theodore has spent the most time sharing the ice with at 5-on-5, in order, are Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, and Tomas Hertl.
He’s often playing with the very best the Golden Knights have to offer at even strength while serving as the quarterback on the top power-play unit. Bruce Cassidy is putting him in the best spots imaginable to create offense.
Theodore finds himself in a sneaky-good matchup against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Although they’re prolific offensively, the Bolts look vulnerable in their own end.
They rank 30th in expected goals against and high-danger chances against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in the early going. Small sample size, of course, but keeping company with the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks in most key defensive metrics is never a good sign.
It’s also worth noting the Knights look lethal on the man advantage. They rank Top 5 in expected goal generation and No. 1 in scoring chance efficiency through four games.
No matter the game state, Theodore is a real threat to find the scoresheet in this matchup.
Golden Knights vs Lightning same-game parlay (SGP)
Shea Theodore 1+ point
Jack Eichel 1+ point
Nikita Kucherov Over 2.5 shots
Eichel plays a healthy chunk of his even-strength shifts with Theodore, and they’re two of the key cogs on the No. 1 power-play unit. The correlation between the two is very, very, strong. If Theodore finds the scoresheet, there’s a good chance Eichel — the team’s most dangerous weapon — is also involved in the action.
Nikita Kucherov has fired at will to start the season, piling up 11 shots on 17 attempts through just two games. His shooting numbers are also consistently higher on home soil. He’s recorded 3.3 shots per game over his last 30 in Tampa Bay, clearing an alt line of 2.5 at nearly a 70% clip.
For whatever reason, the Golden Knights have often brought out ceiling performances from Kucherov in terms of shots. He’s generated at least nine attempts and averaged 3.8 shots on target over his last four meetings vs. Vegas.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Golden Knights vs Lightning odds
Golden Knights vs Lightning live odds
Golden Knights vs Lightning opening odds
- Puck line: Vegas +1.5 (-233) | Tampa Bay -1.5 (+201)
- Moneyline: Vegas +111 | Tampa Bay -125
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-110) | Under 6 (-110)
Golden Knights vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Lightning have taken some money and are now trading as -133 favorites at Pinnacle.
- The Golden Knights have closed underdogs in four of the past five head-to-head meetings, winning three of them.
- Goals usually follow when these two teams square off. Seven of the past eight games have featured six or more.
Golden Knights vs Lightning trend
Shea Theodore has piled up seven points over his last five games against Tampa Bay. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Lightning.
Golden Knights vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-17-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SCRIPPS, Bally Sports Sun |
Golden Knights vs Lightning latest injuries
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