After coming away with a 4-1 home win last night, the New York Islanders will jaunt down I-95 to play the second half of a home-and-home with the Philadelphia Flyers tonight at the Wells Fargo Center.
Yesterday's defeat was the eighth straight for Philadelphia, and NHL betting odds don't expect that slump to end tonight as the Flyers are home underdogs for the tail end of this back-to-back set with the Islanders.
Here are our best free NHL picks and predictions for Islanders vs. Flyers on Tuesday, January 18, with puck drop set for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Islanders vs Flyers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened with Philadelphia as low as +115 and currently sits at the Flyers +110 (and Islanders -125) after last night's game (in New York) closed at Islanders -195/Flyers +175. The total last night closed at 5.5 — and that's where it currently sits for tonight's rematch.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Islanders vs Flyers predictions
- Prediction: Islanders ML (-125)
- Prediction: Under 5.5 (-135)
- Best bet: Oliver Wahlstrom Over 2.5 shots on goal (-120)
Predictions made on 1/18/2022 at 12:19 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Islanders vs Flyers game info
• Location: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA
• Date: Tuesday, January 18, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN+/Hulu
Islanders vs Flyers betting preview
Injuries
Islanders: Kyle Palmieri RW (Out), Ryan Pulock D (Out).
Flyers: Sean Couturier C (Out), Ryan Ellis D (Out), Derick Brassard C (Out), Nate Thompson C (Out), Samuel Morin LW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Islanders vs Flyers head-to-head record (since 2021)
Islanders: 6-1-2, 27 goals for.
Flyers: 3-2-4, 18 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Flyers are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Islanders vs. Flyers.
Islanders vs Flyers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
Dating back to December 30, the Broad Street Bullies have been anything but, sitting 24th in 5 on 5 Corsi For Percentage, with the special teams being spectacularly unspectacular as the power play is converting at a 13% rate (29th), while the penalty kill is 30th at a 66.7% efficiency rate.
What does consistently getting outplayed at even strength, a poor power play, and a leaky penalty kill add up to? A team that is 29th in goals per game (1.88) and 28th in goals against per game (4.00) over its last eight matchups — and has lost each and every one of them.
To be fair, injuries have somewhat derailed the Flyers' season, with star blueliner Ryan Ellis having played all of four games this year and center Sean Couturier having missed the last month, but a team that boasts the likes of Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny, Cam Atkinson, and Joel Farabee should not be this offensively inept.
It's not just bad luck either during this eight-game slump: Philadelphia is still just 24th in the league with 2.33 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5 on 5 and dead-last in expected goals against per 60 at 5 on 5 — a product of the team giving up more than 13 high-danger chances per 60 at even strength (worst in the league).
While the Islanders are sitting three points behind the Flyers for dead last in the Metropolitan Division, they have played seven fewer games and are actually showing signs of life. New York has won five of its last seven games and seven of its previous 11, with improved goaltending — and a star forward showing up — being the catalysts.
In Barry Trotz' first three years as head coach of the Islanders, they finished first, ninth, and second in GA/G and first, eighth, and first in save percentage. Through the first two months of this season, the Islanders were 20th in GA/G and 19th in SV%. Over the last month and a half? First in SV% and second in GA/G, with both Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov playing at an elite level.
The team has also gotten a spark from star forward Mathew Barzal. After posting just 13 points in his first 20 games, he is above a point-per-game clip over the last month playing alongside Anders Lee and youngster Kieffer Bellows, leading an Isles offense that is 15th in goals per game (3.00) during this span... much better than the first two months, when New York averaged 1.9 gpg — 31st in the league.
Last night's matchup featured Sorokin and Martin Jones in nets, so we'd expect tonight's affair to feature Varlamov going against Carter Hart, who has given up at least three goals in four straight games with an .879 SV%.
New York has won six straight against the Flyers, and with a better goaltender and better form right now, we'll happily pay -125 on the Isles to complete the mini-sweep — after they closed at -195 last night.
Prediction: Islanders ML (-125)
Over/Under analysis
Sticking with trends, the Under has cashed in five straight head-to-head matchups, which isn't a surprise as the Islanders have long been one of the NHL's most stout defensive clubs.
New York is cashing Unders at a 66.7% rate this year (20-10-1), the second-highest the NHL, as early in the season the bad goaltending was offset by horrific offense, while now the improved scoring is countered by again-elite goal prevention.
While the Islanders are much improved at putting the puck in the net, they're by no means lighting opposing teams up, scoring three goals or fewer in six of their last eight games.
The Flyers, as also mentioned above, are putrid offensively right now (six straight games with two or fewer goals, 5-1 to the Under in that stretch) and going against New York (again) is more than likely going to result in another soft offensive showing.
Last night's game went Under the 5.5 total, including an empty-net goal. Tonight's U5.5 is currently around -135, so a move to a flat 5.0 could be coming.
Jump on the Under now.
Prediction: Under 5.5 (-135)
Best bet
Barzal may be leading the offensive charge, but do you know who's firing the puck the most for New York over the last month? Rising star Oliver Wahlstrom.
The 11th overall pick in 2018, Wahlstrom leads the team with 81 shots on goal this season and has ramped it up lately, averaging 3.4 shots per game over his last 10 contests — including five last night in just over 11 minutes of ice time.
The Flyers are giving up the fifth-most shots against per game since the start of December, so we're going to keep riding Wahlstrom to get pucks on net and go Over his shot prop total tonight.
Pick: Oliver Wahlstrom Over 2.5 shots on goal (-120)
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