We’ve got four games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Los Angeles Kings.
The NHL Odds suggest this game should be low-scoring and my Kings vs. Maple Leafs predictions are backing the Buds’ stingy defensive corps to continue its strong play and keep pucks out of Toronto’s net.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this Wednesday, October 16 matchup.
Kings vs Maple Leafs prediction
My Leafs best bet
Kings team total Under 2.5 (+100 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs are coming off a 4-2 win over Pittsburgh while the Los Angeles Kings exited Ottawa with a pity point, losing 8-7 in overtime.
That was a wild game that has not been indicative of how the Kings offense has played this season. Despite scoring seven goals on Ottawa, LA only had four goals combined in the first two games of the season and has a league-worst 1.86 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5.
That’s especially tough considering Toronto is boasting the league's stingiest defense. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Leafs are allowing a league-low 1.82 expected goals against, allowing only five goals through three games. In fact, the team has now allowed two or fewer goals in six straight, dating back to Game 5 against the Bruins last April.
The lack of scoring against Toronto is twofold.
Firstly, the Leafs have been getting excellent goaltending to start the year. Tonight's projected starter Anthony Stolarz is 1-1 with a 1.54 GAA and a .940 save percentage through two games.
Secondly, the play in front of him has helped a lot. Toronto is eighth in offensive zone time and leads the NHL with a 66.8% expected-goals-for percentage, winning nearly 67% of their minutes at 5-on-5, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Buds have made it incredibly difficult for the opposition to get quality chances, giving up just 5.44 high-danger chances per 60 minutes of play at 5-on-5.
That trend continues tonight against LA.
Kings vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Leafs to score first
For leg one of my same-game parlay, we’ll take the alternate Under of 7.5 as a pivot from our best bet (that market can not be used in an SGP at SIA). The Leafs should be able to keep the Kings off the board offensively, but it could be a night where Toronto feasts, so taking the extra 1.5 goals is a safer bet.
Plus, the total has only gone Over this number once in their last 10 meetings.
Next up, I like for Auston Matthews to find the back of the net. He’s never gone four straight games to open the season without a goal. He’s hit a few posts and has 15 registered shots on net, five of which are of the high-danger variety.
For my final leg, I’ll take the Maple Leafs to score the first goal of the game. Toronto was third in the NHL last season in this department, scoring first in 48 of their 82 games. I expect the Buds to outscore the Kings as a whole tonight, and they'll get the puck rolling early.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kings vs Maple Leafs odds
Kings vs Maple Leafs live odds
Kings vs Maple Leafs opening odds
- Puck line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-165) | Toronto -1.5 (+140)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +140 | Toronto -165
- Over/Under: Over 6 (-130) | Under 6 (+100)
Kings vs Maple Leafs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Maple Leafs are the heavy favorites at -175, giving them an implied probability of 63.64% to win.
- Meanwhile, while the Kings are getting +145 on the road.
- The total is set at 6.0 goals, with the Over getting -120, and the Under getting even money (+100).
- Historically, these clubs have played each other tight, with the Under going 7-2-1 over the last 10 meetings
Kings vs Maple Leafs trend
The Kings have hit the game total Under in 51 of their last 88 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Maple Leafs.
Kings vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, 10-16-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally West, Sportsnet |
Kings vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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