Lightning vs Panthers Picks and Predictions: Expect Scoring Against Weak Nets

The cross-state rivalry between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers will hit its third act this season as the two post-Christmas winning teams will meet at FLA Live Arena Wednesday night. These clubs split the first two meetings in Tampa earlier this season.

Can the Bolts pick up two points despite missing their top two goaltenders? Can the Panthers roll their incredible third-period play from last night into tonight’s matchup? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Lightning vs. Panthers on December 30.  

Lightning vs Panthers odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Panthers opened at -135 on the ML and have since moved to -130. The total sits at 6 and is likely to hit 6.5. Tampa Bay closed at -115 on the ML at home in the last meeting (November 13) with a total of 5.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Lightning vs Panthers predictions

• Prediction: Panthers ML (-130)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-120)
• Best bet: Over 6 (-120)

Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Lightning vs Panthers game info

• Location: FLA Live Arena, Sunrise, FL
• Date: Thursday, December 30, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Florida, Sportsnet

Lightning vs Panthers betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: Andrei Vasilevskiy G (Out), Brian Elliott G (Out), Anthony Cirelli F (Out), Mikhail Sergachev D (Out), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare F (Out).
Panthers: Owen Tippett F (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Lightning vs Panthers head-to-head record (since 2021)

Lightning: 10-9 SU, 64 goals for.
Panthers: 9-10 SU, 60 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The favorite is 22-7 SU in the last 29 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.

Lightning vs Panthers picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline analysis

The Lightning opened the post-Christmas break without their top two goalies, as Andrei Vaslivelskiy and Brian Elliott were put into COVID protocol on Sunday, meaning they won’t be eligible to return until tomorrow with the league’s new isolation policy being moved to five days. That means John Cooper’s club will likely roll with Maxime Legace again tonight after the AHL goaltender stopped 27 of 31 shots in a 5-4 overtime victory against the struggling Canadiens on Tuesday.

Goaltending was a big issue in that game, as Legace finished with -1.22 goals saved above expected and if the Bolts weren’t playing the Habs and Sam Montembeault, the result could have been different. Now the Lightning, who have won nine of their last 10, will have a much tougher task with a healthy Florida club on deck.

The Panthers got all their important pieces back and used yet another third-period comeback to get two points versus the Rangers last night, who entered the third with a 2-1 lead. The Panthers got strong play from two bottom lines that had more ice time than the top two lines and finished with great xgoal% and Corsi% numbers. This will be a big advantage for the home team as their top skaters weren’t overused last night, and Tampa’s bottom-six forwards are thin on talent and finished with xgoal% below 31 percent on Tuesday against a weak Habs team.

The Lightning needed a goal in the final second 20 seconds of that game, as they surrendered two third-period goals and faded down the stretch. Conversely, Florida is like a shark that smells blood in the third period, as they’ve proven no opponent’s lead is safe entering the final frame. Florida has a league-leading four wins when trailing after two periods.

With Sergei Bobrovsky picking up the win last night, the Panthers will likely turn to Spencer Knight today. The Florida backup has struggled this season but will be the better goalie on the ice if the Bolts go with Legace or even their No. 4 option. Legace wasn't playing well in the AHL before the call-up as he owned a 3.86 GAA and a .861 SV% in seven games.

Florida showed a lot of fight last night and finished with over 4.00 xgoals against a Top-5 goalie in Igor Shesterkin. Now, the healthier Panthers will get to roll their four lines against a Tampa team who could be starting the worst goalie currently in the league. If Bobrovsky does surprisingly get the start, this price will fall from its current -130 ML price. Tampa has already taken three of a possible four points across the two meetings this season in Tampa.

Prediction: Panthers ML (-130)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these offenses have come out of the gates hot, as each club managed four regulation goals in their first games back from the Christmas break. The Lightning finished with 4.7 xgoals in a 5-4 win versus a bad team in Montreal on Tuesday, while the Panthers, more impressively, potted four goals against Shesterkin last night and finished with 4.54 xgoals. 

Of the 16 total goals that were scored in those two games, zero were scored on the power play, meaning both of these teams aren't having any problems finding offense at even strength.

The Under hit in the two previous meetings, but tonight’s situation could produce a much different result. Thanks to COVID hitting the Lightning’s goaltenders, the Bolts are down to their third or fourth option in net against the league’s No. 3 offense. If Montreal (31st in goals per game) can manage four goals against Legace and the Lightning, what will a Florida team that now has Alex Barkov back do offensively?

Tampa’s Brayden Point netted two goals and an assist on Tuesday and the Bolts could get a chance to pile on the goals against Knight, who allowed eight(!) goals in his last outing before the break and has a 3.96 GAA over his last 10 starts. Knight was also the starter in Game 6 of the playoffs last year where the Panthers were eliminated in a 4-0 loss.

Both teams have no problem scoring at even strength and sit in the Top 7 in that category, while both power plays could get on the board after getting shut out in their first game back after the extended break.

The market is also on the Over as this total has only gone up since opening and has hit 6.5 at some books. With a pair of elite offenses and below replacement-level goaltending, we’ve been eyeing this Over since yesterday.

Prediction: Over 6 (-120)

Best bet

In a game that could feature Legace vs. Knight and two offenses that rank in the Top 10 in goals per game, we could easily see both teams pot three goals here. Each club showed they haven’t lost their scoring touch following the break, while also playing anything but shutdown hockey on the backend.

If Andrei Vasilevskiy were to suit up, we’d be off this Over, but with the Russian netminder entering the COVID protocol on Sunday and the league maintaining a five-day isolation period, Vaz should be a spectator on Thursday night. 

The Over is 6-3 in the league since the restart and we’ve seen a ton of goals scored as teams return to play. We’d play this at 6.5 but are happy with the 6 and the juice.

Pick: Over 6 (-120)

Pages related to this topic