The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins will meet for the fourth time this season as the Bruins sit as -150 home favorites with a total of 6.0.
Boston closed as a -130 road favorite in the last meeting in a 5-2 win and still has plenty to play for as it’s seven points shy of the all-time record of 132 points with five games remaining. Toronto is nearly cemented with the second spot in the Atlantic, will get Ryan O’Reilly back tonight, and needs to get into playoff mode with the postseason starting in 10 days.
With the B's gunning for a record and Tyler Bertuzzi getting solid offensive opportunities, can the winger find the scoresheet for a fourth straight game for plus money?
Find out where my best bets lie in my NHL betting picks and predictions for the Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins best odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins picks and predictions
Tyler Bertuzzi has enjoyed playing on Boston's second line with David Pastrnak while also seeing decent power-play time. He’s got points in three straight including a pair of power-play goals. He’s playing over 17 minutes per game (up on his season average) and averaging over three minutes with the man advantage. He’s also getting shots on net with 26 over his last 10 games.
With Patrice Bergeron getting some games off, Bertuzzi’s role in the top six has increased and he’s produced in an efficient offense. Now the Bruins face a Maple Leafs team who ranks 24th in expected goals against at even strength since March 1 thanks to allowing the 10th most high-danger chances against at 5-on-5.
With the uncertainty of Bergeron, there are no shot markets for Bertuzzi, but his point market can be found at plus money across the board and holds the most value in that market.
Boston is still playing for an NHL record in points and has no issue getting up for a game vs. Toronto. The Leafs have a 3.30 GAA over their last 10 road games while also giving up nine goals in the last two meetings to the Bruins. Toronto goalie Ilya Samsonov also has a save percentage 26 points lower on the road than at home this season and gave up five goals in the last meeting.
Bertuzzi is forcing the Bruins to keep Taylor Hall on the sidelines with his play and his recent production, opportunity on the top-six/power play, and the matchup is keeping him in an advantageous position to continue to contribute to the offense.
My best bet: Tyler Bertuzzi Over 0.5 points (+105 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Bruins moneyline analysis
Since the beginning of March, the Leafs sit 17th in point percentage at 9-6-2, with a goal differential of zero. They haven’t put together a dominant stretch over the last 30 days, have a 49% expected goal percentage (xGF%), and sit 16th in goals per game at 3.18 thanks to a poor shooting percentage on high-danger chances.
At home, Boston has a league-best 1.79 GAA on the season which is more than a half-goal better than the next-best team. If Toronto can’t bury with 14.8 high-danger chances per game, getting just 9.78 per game (all strengths) in Boston isn’t helping the cause.
The Bruins aren't playing worse hockey down the stretch either. Since March 1, Boston is 13-4-0 with the second-best penalty kill and the No. 2 goal differential. It has lost just four games at home in regulation all season and getting it at -150 isn’t a common thing.
Toronto will also be juggling some lines yet again as Ryan O’Reilly draws back into the lineup after suffering a broken thumb. Reilly's addition will create some unfamiliar lines in the Toronto bottom six while the Bruins will likely get Patrice Bergeron back tonight after missing two games.
I’m not betting against Boston at home and still think it's playing at 100% despite the massive lead in the standings. Analyst Andrew Raycroft also thinks this is a team that is looking to break the points record and I’d back it vs. the inconsistent offense of the Buds at -150, but that’s likely the threshold price.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins Over/Under analysis
The total closed at 5.5 in the February matchup, but we’re likely to see a total of 6.0 all day today.
Both teams have been profitable to the Under this season, and although goalies haven’t been announced, I’d be happy with this Under 6.0 at -110 with Jeremy Swayman in net. If Linus Ullmark were to draw in, this total could shorten up.
Ilya Samsonov should likely go as Joseph Woll took the last start and Matt Murray is on the shelf. His road splits aren’t pretty compared to his play at home, but he’s coming off a shutout last Saturday in Ottawa. He’s seen Boston twice this season and most recently allowed five goals at home against it, so the netminder will certainly want a better performance.
Toronto hasn’t been great since March 1 at 5-on-5 in terms of expected goal against but if the B's do play late with a lead, they're such a good team at throttling scoring chances and focusing on protecting the lead.
Boston is 23-2 SU when leading after two periods at home and ranks first in goals allowed in the third period at 0.73 per game, while the Leafs aren’t far behind at 0.97 per game. Even if we see two goals in the opening frame, this Under will still be live.
Special teams favor the Under as well as the Bruins’ power play hasn’t been scoring at a huge rate despite getting plenty of opportunities, with an 18.3% success rate since March 1 (24th). Toronto’s PP will also have to face the league’s best penalty kill. This Under 6.0 is a play for me to -115.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins betting trend to know
The Maple Leafs are 0-4 in their last four games following a win. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Bruins.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins game info
| Location: | TD Garden, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, April 6, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NESN |
Maple Leafs vs Bruins key injuries
