The Toronto Maple Leafs continue their five-game road trip with a stop-off in Edmonton tonight to face the Oilers as -125 road favorites.
Both teams have been wheeling and dealing with the trade deadline approaching, but not all of their acquisitions will be available tonight. Because of that, Toronto could be in better shape in a game that has serious shootout potential.
Find out my best bet in our NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Oilers on Wednesday, March 1.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers best odds
Maple Leafs vs Oilers picks and predictions
With Mitch Marner reuniting with Auston Matthews and getting the center going last time out in Seattle, the Maple Leafs' top line should see plenty of action tonight at even strength. They'll take on an Edmonton team without a top-four defenseman, as Tyson Barrie has been traded, and Mattias Ekholm may not suit up due to a visa issue. That means plenty of valuable minutes in a prime matchup for Michael Bunting, who is paying plus-money for a point tonight in a game that should close with a total of 7.
Bunting’s skill sets should work well vs. a softer Edmonton defense that might have to use Darnell Nurse in a more offensive role with Barrie’s departure. The first-line winger has nine points over his last 10 games, and has recorded at least a point in six of those affairs. That includes his two-assist effort against the Kraken on Sunday.
I have Bunting as a coin-flip to record a point tonight in a potential shootout, but the +104 price for a point is giving me roughly 20 points of value from my projection.
This game suits Bunting’s style, and with Marner getting Matthews going, it could be a tough matchup for a shorthanded Oilers team.
My best bet: Michael Bunting Over 0.5 points (+104 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Oilers moneyline analysis
Both teams come into tonight having been busy securing assets with the trade deadline coming on Friday.
The Leafs have overhauled their roster, but will have top-pairing defenseman Jake McCabe and role-player Sam Lafferty in the lineup tonight. Tough D-man Luke Schenn could possibly suit up after getting acquired yesterday. Those are on top of the previous trades that brought in Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari.
Toronto won’t have Pierre Engvall and Rasmus Sandin, as the pair have been dealt away, but this is a deep team and could prove a tough opponent tonight vs. the Oilers.
Edmonton enters tonight in poor form, dropping six of their last eight games and having just traded away their PP1 defenseman in Barrie. They brought Ekholm over from Nashville, but he might not be available and likely has to secure a visa for the move to Canada. That will likely leave Nurse to play a more offensive role, which will hurt the Oilers in their own end.
Edmonton has seen plenty of high-scoring games, and this total heading to 7 is another indicator of a potential shootout tonight. I don’t see the Oilers slowing this Toronto team down right now, and the loss of Barrie makes it even worse for the home side.
Toronto will have a motivated locker room with new faces and players who are going to possibly skate a little harder tonight in what will be their first game with the new club.
The Leafs have the edge at 5-on-5 and the better penalty kill, and can match the Edmonton power play. They also have the better goaltending.
With Toronto playing in Calgary tomorrow, we’ll likely see Ilya Samsonov tonight, who is 12-4-2 since Christmas and has stopped 50 of the 52 shots he’s seen in back-to-back games.
Both Stuart Skinner and Jack Campbell have GAAs above 3.00 and sub-.900 SV% since Jan. 1. Toronto possibly facing former teammate Campbell isn’t great news for the struggling netminder, either.
Getting the Leafs at -125 isn’t a common thing, and facing a bad defensive team that will be without a key defenseman is also in their favor. Toronto was -175 in Buffalo three games ago, and there isn’t a 50-point difference between the Oilers and Sabres. Give me the Leafs on the moneyline at that price, and I’d play it to -140.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers Over/Under analysis
This total opened at 6.5 and has seen a steady flow of Over money that's driving it to 7. I think the majority of books close this total at 7.
We’re getting two of the best power plays in hockey and some suspect goaltending in Edmonton, while Samsonov is a much better goalie on home ice. The Toronto netminder has a save percentage 22 points lower on the road than at home this season.
At home, the Oilers see an average of 6.91 goals per game (GPG), which is the second-highest mark in hockey next to the Sabres. They’re giving up over 3.00 GPG at home, and also sport the NHL's 29th-ranked penalty kill. Edmonton draws penalties at a Top 7 rate, so we could see plenty of man-advantages in this one.
Edmonton has closed at 7 in seven of their last 10 games, and is still 7-3 O/U across that stretch. They’re also one of the most profitable Over teams at 37-19 O/U on the season.
With two elite Top-6 scoring teams and some issues on the Edmonton backend, this game should see a ton of offense, and I don't think it has enough goaltending talent to keep this a low-scoring affair.
The Over 6.5 is a play for me, but I’d stay off the 7.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in Oilers’ last eight games vs. Atlantic Division foes. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Oilers.
Maple Leafs vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 1, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Maple Leafs vs Oilers key injuries
