All eyes will be on Sunrise with the Edmonton Oilers taking on the Florida Panthers in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final on Saturday.
Edmonton punched its ticket with three consecutive wins over the Dallas Stars in the WCF to head to the dance for the first time since 2006. Florida, on the other hand, returns to the Cup Final for the second consecutive year and has been labeled the favorite according to Stanley Cup odds.
Here’s my top NHL picks and Oilers vs. Panthers predictions for the battle of Lord Stanley's Cup.
All odds courtesy of BET99.
Oilers vs. Panthers series odds
| Market | ||
|---|---|---|
 Oilers (+105) |
To win |  Panthers (-130) |
| Oilers +1.5 (-190) |
Handicap | Panthers -1.5 (+155) |
The Florida Panthers are a short favorite in the NHL odds and have home-ice advantage, while the Edmonton Oilers bring a 6-3 postseason-road record to the Final and have been the lower seed in each of the past two rounds.
The odds aren't expecting a sweep, with the series going six or seven total games tied for the lowest price. Additionally, the spread has Florida -1.5 at plus-money odds.
Oilers vs Panthers series preview
Oilers statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Postseason | |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 55.2 (3rd) | 49.9 (8th) |
| Adjusted CF% | 55.5 (3rd) | 52.2 (5th) |
| GF% | 55.8 (5th) | 50.7 (6th) |
| xGF% | 57.1 (1st) | 49.4 (9th) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 57.3 (2nd) | 51.1 (7th) |
| Team SH% | 8.8 (14th) | 10.0 (3rd) |
| Team SV% | .914 (13th) | .896 (14th) |
| PDO | 100.2 (15th) | 99.6 (8th) |
| PP% | 26.3 (4th) | 37.3 (1st) |
| PK% | 79.5 (15th) | 93.9 (1st) |
It’s been a special-teams clinic from the Oilers through the first three rounds of the playoffs, and the one-two punch of superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl has led the way offensively. The 5-on-5 play has been solid but unspectacular, with the Oil actually leaking in Corsi For percentage and expected goals percentage.
Additionally, while inconsistent goaltending is a definite concern, No. 1 Stuart Skinner found a groove to close out the Vancouver Canucks in Round 2 and continued his strong play against Dallas. He’s allowed two goals or fewer in seven of his past eight starts with a .920 SV%.
Goaltending, special teams, and star power are often cited as the calling cards of Cup winners, but Edmonton will be up against a juggernaut at 5-on-5. The Panthers owned that during the regular season, and they’ve been equally impressive through three rounds of the playoffs. Finally, there’s also potential for Edmonton’s shooting percentage to dip at 5-on-5.
Panthers statistical breakdown
| Regular Season | Postseason | |
|---|---|---|
| CF% | 55.7 (2nd) | 55.4 (3rd) |
| Adjusted CF% | 56.6 (2nd) | 55.5 (2nd) |
| GF% | 56.6 (3rd) | 56.4 (1st) |
| xGF% | 54.3 (5th) | 55.0 (1st) |
| Adjusted xGF% | 54.9 (5th) | 54.9 (1st) |
| Team SH% | 7.7 (28th) | 7.4 (9th) |
| Team SV% | .930 (2nd) | .924 (7th) |
| PDO | 100.7 (8th) | 99.7 (7th) |
| PP% | 23.5 (8th) | 23.3 (6th) |
| PK% | 82.5 (6th) | 88.2 (2nd) |
Florida has put on its own clinic at 5-on-5 this postseason, and the Cats also have a cast of superstars jumping the boards. Shut-down center Aleksander Barkov has erased opposing top scorers and still produces at a point-per-game pace, while Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe have combined for 22 goals and all have triple-digit shot attempts.
The Panthers are backed by a well-rounded defense corps, too. All six Florida blueliners are on the plus side of the CF% and xGF% battles, and the Cats are allowing the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.17) at 5-on-5 in the playoffs.
Starting goalie Sergei Bobrovsky has also been as steady as ever. He’s allowed two goals or fewer in 13 of 17 playoffs games, and after a bit of a rocky start to the opening-round series against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Bobrovsky has posted a .920 SV% and 1.89 GAA across his past 13 starts. That’ll do, Bob.
All statistics are at 5-on-5 except power-play percentage and penalty-kill percentage.
Oilers vs Panthers series props
Oilers vs Panthers correct score odds
| Team | Win 4-0 | Win 4-1 | Win 4-2 | Win 4-3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oilers |
+1,300 | +750 | +475 | +550 |
| Panthers |
+1,100 | +550 | +500 | +425 |
Pick: Panthers to win 4-2 (+500 at BET99)
I value the Florida blueline corps all driving possession and winning the expected goals battle because only three Edmonton defensemen are north of a 50% CF%, and just Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm are above the line in xGF%.
Additionally, there was a lot of praise for the Edmonton supporting cast during the Dallas series, but the numbers reinforce the Oilers are a top-heavy team offensively with the majority of their depth players below the mark in both CF% and xGF%.
The Panthers will tilt the ice in their favor and test Skinner. If the Edmonton No. 1 isn’t up to the task, the Oilers will need to score their way to wins, and goals have been tough to come by against Florida.
Still, I’ve been impressed by the adjustments Edmonton has made throughout the playoffs to play better team defense, and I’m expecting a low-scoring series. McDavid, Draisaitl, and the Edmonton special teams will keep it interesting, but Florida has a relentless attack and is too sound defensively.
Oilers vs Panthers
Most points in series: Gustav Forsling vs. Brandon Montour
Pick: Brandon Montour (-115 at BET99)
It’s been a breakout season across the board for Panthers defenseman Gustav Forsling, and he’s been instrumental for Florida in the playoffs. He’s racked up 11 points through 17 games while primarily matching up against the opposition's top players.
With that said, I’m targeting Brandon Montour in this head-to-head bet because he receives softer on-ice assignments at 5-on-5, and he’s also the quarterback of the No. 1 power-play unit. Forsling sees sparing PP time and has averaged just 16 seconds per game this postseason.
Additionally, Forsling’s points per 60 minutes are up to 1.67 during the playoffs compared to his 1.34 mark during the regular season, while Montour’s respective 1.36 and 1.28 marks are more in line.
I also expect Forsling to spend the bulk of his time at even strength matched up against McDavid, who has a dominant 57.1 CF% and 57.0 xGF% at 5-on-5.
Oilers vs Panthers series best bet
Pick: Panthers to win series (-130 at BET99)
Edmonton drew just 1.89 penalties against Dallas in Round 3 compared to 5.56 against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round, and power-play opportunities are likely to remain limited in the final. I’m anticipating 5-on-5 play being the difference in the series, and the Panthers are superior — especially down the lineup.
Additionally, Florida has been no slouch with the man advantage or while shorthanded, either. There’s potential for statistical correction to both of Edmonton’s special-teams percentages considering how much higher they are in the playoffs compared to the regular season, too.
I also expect Bobrovsky to outplay Skinner. Because Florida often puts an emphasis on shot quantity over quality, Skinner’s save percentage might not drop significantly, but his .905 SV% and 0.04 goals saved above average during the regular season is nothing to write home about. His respective .897 and -0.06 marks in the playoffs shouldn’t instill uber confidence, even if Skinner is in the midst of a mini heater.
Finally, I give Florida an added edge with the home-ice advantage. While almost impossible to quantify, ice hockey in June in Florida isn’t ideal for the ice conditions at Amerant Bank Arena. The Panthers have gone deep in the playoffs in consecutive seasons, and their heavy style of play with an emphasis of pucks on net works to their advantage on home ice.
It might prove to be a a non-factor, but I’m interested to see how Edmonton’s skill and finesse transitions to Sunrise early in the series.
