Oilers vs Capitals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Edmonton Steamrolls Limping Washington

We have an entertaining matchup in Monday’s nightcap with the Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals hosting the Pacific Division’s Edmonton Oilers. Last season, Edmonton won each of the two meetings between these clubs.

Will the visitors take care of business once again, or can Washington pull off the upset as a home underdog? Find out in our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Oilers vs Capitals on Monday, November 7.

Oilers vs Capitals best odds

Oilers vs Capitals picks and predictions

NHL odds have pegged the Caps as home underdogs and its easy to see why. These two teams enter this contest trending in the opposite direction as Edmonton has won five of its last seven games while Washington has lost five of its last six. Both of these trends should continue on Monday night.

Projected to take the crease for the Oilers is goaltender Stuart Skinner, who has been a massive surprise for his club this season with his excellent performance. Through five appearances between the pipes, he boasts an exceptional .944 SV% and 2.11 GAA.

Those outstanding surface-level stats are not fluky either as his metrics back up his performance this season. Among starting goaltenders, Skinner ranks third in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.

Skinner is able to play confidently between the pipes because of the stellar offense in front of him, which is driven by the two Hart Trophy betting candidates, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Each of those two superstars are averaging two or more points per game, which is absolutely ludicrous but yet not surprising.

At 5v5, Edmonton ranks seventh in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60), which is largely a product of McDavid and Draisaitl carrying their lines. Meanwhile, the Capitals’ offense has appeared extremely sluggish to start the season as they rank just 24th in the league in xGF/60 at 5v5.

The defense has also looked problematic, ranking just 21st in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5. Now, to be fair to Washington, its team is dealing with probably the longest injury list in hockey to start the season. 

Entering this game, it is expected to be without T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov, Carl Hagelin, and Tom Wilson. There are a couple of other role players expected to miss Monday’s contest, but the above list of names consists of three top-six forwards and two top-four defensemen. 

That is an incredible amount of high-level production missing from this lineup, which is a big reason why the Capitals have now lost four straight games and likely five after Monday.

My best bet: Oilers moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)

Oilers vs Capitals moneyline analysis

The only reservation to make in taking the Oilers on Monday night is the fact that goaltender Darcy Kuemper is slated to take the crease for Washington. Through nine starts this season, Kuemper is 4-4-1 with a .922 SV% and 2.35 GAA.

Among starting goaltenders, he ranks ninth in GSAx/60 at 5v5. Across 16 career starts against Edmonton, the Capitals’ netminder is 10-2-4 with a .926 SV% and 2.20 GAA.

Kuemper has looked strong despite jumping ship from Colorado to Washington over the offseason, which is a big dip in defensive efficiency in front of him. While backing the Oilers is certainly not a fade of Kuemper at all, the injured lineup in front of him should be too much of a constraint for the Caps to win this game.

Oilers vs Capitals Over/Under analysis

This game likely goes one of two ways. We could get a goaltending battle between Skinner and Kuemper given how excellent they have been this season both statistically and analytically.

If that is the case, then the Under could be a good play. There have now been six or fewer total goals scored in six straight games for the Capitals.

However, there is also the scenario that McDavid and Draisaitl are too much to handle for a crippled Washington lineup to handle, despite Kuemper being in net. Regardless of the opponent, those two guys are capable of putting up five to six goals just by themselves.

There have now been seven or more total goals scored in five of Edmonton’s last seven games. I could see either game script coming to fruition, so the total in this matchup is not worth taking.

Oilers vs Capitals betting trend to know

The Washington Capitals are 1-5 over their last six games. Find more NHL betting trends for Oilers vs Capitals.

Oilers vs Capitals game info

Oilers vs Capitals key injuries

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