Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: This Canes Blueliner Will Answer the Bell

The Florida Panthers have knocked off some big names on their way to the Eastern Conference Finals, but the Carolina Hurricanes could prove an even more difficult opponent — especially in Game 1, where the Panthers aren’t riding a lot of momentum.

Florida went into the second round on the heels of a Game 7 overtime win over the Bruins, but with more time off between series and Carolina also getting some beneficial rest, the Canes will continue to use its home-ice advantage to pad their moneyline backers’ pockets.

The favorites will also be getting plenty of offense from the blueline in this series, and the matchup is great for the Carolina rearguards, who have a 34% team shot share so far in the playoffs. 

Find out where my best bet lies in our NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Hurricanes on Thursday, May 18.

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 odds

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 predictions

Brent Burns went 4-1 to the Under on his shot total in the second round but still leads the Carolina Hurricanes in time on ice, shot attempts/60, and shots on goal/60. He got a ton of shots on net in the Islanders series, going 5-1 to the Over, and has a great matchup in this series with the Florida Panthers.

The Panthers have allowed opposing defenders to create a lot of offense, as Morgan Rielly contributed on 40% of the Toronto goals in Round 2, while Charlie McAvoy and Dmitry Orlov had 15 assists in the first round. 

Carolina has generated 34% of their shots from the blueline in the playoffs, while the Panthers have allowed the third-most shots on goal of the 18 playoff teams. It’s a great matchup for the Carolina defenders, and Burns is going to contribute early and often in this series. 

Pinnacle is at -127 for Burns’ Over 3.5 shots on goal while Caesars is at -103, meaning bettors are more than likely going to have some closing line value (CLV) at -115 or better.

At 25 minutes of time on ice, I’m projecting 9.1 shot attempts from Burns and 4.37 shots on goal. He has an 11% shot share in the playoffs, and has played two of the better defensive teams in the Islanders and Devils. 

My best bet: Burns Over 3.5 shots on goal (-103)

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 same-game parlay

Brent Burns Over 3.5 shots on goal

Jordan Martinook Over 1.5 shots on goal

Carolina team total Over 3.5

+500 at bet365

The true odds are +531 but the correlation knocks this down to +500, which isn't a bad multiplier.

Burns is going to take plenty of shots tonight vs. a team that allows pucks on the net, and the D-man leads his team in shot attempts/60 in the postseason.

Jordan Martinook is second on the team in shot attempts/60 and SOG/60. He had 10 points over five games in the second round, and this total could easily be 2.5 by Game 2. He's 9-2 to the Over on this total in the playoffs, and is getting more ice time as he's tied for the team lead in points.

Florida held the Leafs to exactly two goals in five straight games, but that was more on the Leafs as Florida still gave up plenty of quality chances. It now faces the Canes, who have the second-most high-danger goals/60 in the playoffs despite the No. 4 shooting percentage.

Being idle has also helped the Hurricanes more, and let's not forget Boston averaged 3.86 goals per game in the first round, which is still the highest scoring rate of all 16 playoff teams. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Carolina opened at -131 at Pinnacle and has moved to -141, with some books as short as -145 as of this morning. I think there is still some room for the favorites to shorten up, possibly to -150.

Carolina is a very tough team to beat at home. They seem to take advantage of the last change better than most teams and in the playoffs, and they have a 1.83 GAA, (tops in the postseason) to go along with a 92.3% penalty kill.

The Hurricanes, despite their documented injuries to key forwards, have also been generating shot attempts at the second-best rate of all 16 playoff teams at 5-on-5, and rank just behind the Oilers in expected goals/60 at even strength. Carolina is known as one of the stingiest defenses in hockey (especially at home), but the offense has surprised and could find the back of the net vs. Florida.

The Maple Leafs failed to score more than two goals in any of their five game vs. Florida, but they had plenty of chances and posted the worst shooting percentage of the second round at 5.75% at all strengths. In that series, Toronto won the xGF% battle and generated more high-danger chances than the Panthers (all strengths).

If Carolina can continue to score on its high-danger chances and shots in general (15.5% shooting percentage in Round 2), Florida will be looking at a much different series here than the one they had vs. Toronto.

Because of the extended time off, the Hurricanes could enter the series healthier, as Teuvo Teravainen has been back at practice. His addition to the lineup will bolster the middle six, which might be worth five-plus points on the ML. 

Additionally, the time off might not help the Panthers. They had just one day off between their first and second-round series, and took a lot of momentum into their series vs. Toronto following their Game 7 overtime win and 3-1 series comeback.

I like Carolina on the moneyline at -135, to win in regulation at plus money, and its team total Over 3.5 at +128.

The Hurricanes are 7-4 to the Over 5.5 so far in the playoffs. They are averaging 6.19 total goals per game, and 5.50 per game at home over six games. Looking at expected goals at all strengths, they’re averaging 6.22 xG per game.

Florida just went a perfect 5-0 to the Under in Round 2, but a lot of that had to do with Leafs’ inability to score with a sad 5% shooting percentage. The Over went 5-2 in their first-round meeting with the Bruins, and their 3.51 expected goals against per game (all strengths) ranks 16th of all 18 playoff teams. 

Looking at the total — which opened at 5.5 in some places and moved to 6 — the Panthers allow a lot of high-danger chances, and now face a Carolina offense that is scoring on 26% of its high-danger opportunities. The Canes will get opportunities, and with all the time off, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sergei Bobrovsky fall back to earth. 

With this total hitting 6, however, I’m staying away from the Over. Carolina has yet to see a total this high, and with both teams coming off a decent layoff, it could be a slow start to this one.

Carolina projects to have better and more abundant scoring chances, and their team total Over 3.5 at +128 at Pinnacle is something I’d rather pivot to instead of the Over 6 at even money. Frederik Andersen doesn’t have to be great to keep the Panthers’ total low, as Carolina is one of the best teams at minimizing opponents’ quality scoring chances on home ice. 

Panthers vs Hurricanes betting trend to know

The Panthers are 14-37-2 in the last 53 meetings in Carolina. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Hurricanes.

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 game info

Panthers vs Hurricanes Game 1 injuries

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