Penguins vs Capitals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Nothing Will Come Easy

A battle of the Metro will take place tonight in the Nation’s Capital as a pair of 56-point clubs will meet with the Pittsburgh Penguins taking on the Washington Capitals.

The home side is returning from a West Coast trip, which can be tough in the first game, but the Pens have also lost their No. 1 goalie in Tristan Jarry and are coming off a 7-6 track meet vs. the Panthers. However, with tonight's outcome having a big impact on the standings, could we see a very tight, conservative game from both sides?

Find out my best bet for the Penguins vs. Capitals in my NHL betting picks and predictions.

Penguins vs Capitals best odds

Penguins vs Capitals picks and predictions

With both teams sitting at 56 points and clinging to the last playoff spots in the competitive East, this four-point game is massive and should be a stereotypical Metro divisional battle. 

The Penguins are coming off a 7-6 overtime win vs. the Panthers and will be playing without their No. 1 goalie in Tristan Jarry, which might have bettors thinking Over 6.5. However, this is going to be a tight game and I’m loving the Under.

Casey DeSmith gave up six goals Tuesday, but good teams respond in hockey and the Pittsburgh coaching staff is going to demand a better all-around effort tonight on the road vs. a familiar opponent. 

Slowing down a Pens' offense will be Darcy Kuemper — whose winning record is below .500 — but that has a lot to do with goal support, or a lack thereof, from a Washington offense that has been injured all season. His .916 SV% is respectable and he ranks in the Top 13 in goals saved above expected. 

Neither team has been particularly good with the man advantage which is also favoring the Under. Both clubs possess power plays outside of the Top 15, although there might not be many extra-man opportunities as Pittsburgh and the Capitals both take penalties at a Bottom 7 rate. 

Open ice will be at a premium tonight and after an embarrassing defensive game from the Pens on Tuesday, Pittsburgh will tighten up its game in a matchup that has a massive impact on the standings. 

These two rivals have seen each other just once this season and that total closed at 6. I could easily see this total closing at that number at some of the sharper books. 

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Penguins vs Capitals moneyline analysis

The big news coming into this game is the injury to Tristan Jarry. He’ll be out until February and the Pens will be playing their ninth game without him since January 2. Over that stretch, Pittsburgh went 4-4 straight up with Casey DeSmith getting the majority of the starts, and 0-3 SU vs. teams with a winning record. 

It finished that set of games with a 3.75 GAA and a -2 goal differential, needing to score seven goals including an OT winner to get two points on Tuesday vs. the Panthers. The Capitals could pose a tougher challenge tonight with the home side -115 on the moneyline.

Coming back from a West Coast trip isn’t advantageous, but that price is wiped out by the goalie issues from the Pens, in my opinion. Washington has Alex Ovechkin back and Tom Wilson, as well as Nick Backstrom.

I don’t see any difference in these teams in terms of rankings, but the books are showing us with this price that Pittsburgh is the better team and I don’t see it. 

The Capitals have the better goal differential and their offense has been hampered by injuries all season. Few clubs have dealt with as many key injuries as they have

The goaltending edge is with Washington as projected starter Darcy Kuemper owns a very respectable .916 SV% despite a 14-17 SU record. A lot of that is a lack of goal support from an offense that was missing key pieces for the majority of the first half of the season.

Looking at special teams, both clubs are in similar tiers and there is no discerning edge on either side. 

DeSmith and his 3.34 GAA and .900 SV% are tough to trust on the road tonight — especially coming off a six-goal outing vs. Florida. Add in a healthier Caps team and I have the home side priced at -140 which is 25 points of home-ice advantage and another five points for the possibility of Wilson and Backstrom returning. 

Penguins vs Capitals Over/Under analysis

Neither team has been profitable to the Over on the season with a combined record of 41-50-6 O/U. This total opened at 6.5 at most books, briefly hit 6, and currently sits at 6.5 across the board leaning to the Under. 

The Under looks like the play off the bat. Many bettors will look at the Jarry situation and Pittsburgh coming off a 7-6 game and think Over, but there is a lot to like about the Under.

First is that aforementioned game. You can be damn sure that the Pittsburgh coaching staff has been vocal about the defensive play following its 7-6 OT win vs. Florida. With DeSmith in net, we could also see a more conservative approach offensively in front of him as hanging your goalie for six goals is never a good thing for the skaters.

Next is the standings. This is a four-point game between two divisional teams who are tied in the standings and fighting for a playoff spot in a tough Eastern Conference. Open ice will be hard to come by tonight. 

I do love a good Metro Division Under tonight in Washington.

Penguins vs Capitals betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1-2 in the Penguins’ last 11 games vs. the Metropolitan. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Capitals.

Penguins vs Capitals game info

Penguins vs Capitals key injuries

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