Penguins vs Flames Picks and Predictions: Flaming-Hot Netminders Leaning Toward the Under

Two of the hottest goaltenders in the NHL face off on Monday night as Tristan Jarry and the Pittsburgh Penguins take on Jacob Markstrom and the Calgary Flames.

NHL betting lines for this contest opened with the Flames installed as -144 home favorites with the Over/Under at 5.5.

Here are our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for the Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames on Monday, November 29, with the puck dropping at 9 p.m. ET. 

Penguins vs Flames odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The line opened with the Flames at -144 and the Over/Under set at 5.5. The total has remained in place while the Flames' line has seen some minor variations at some books. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Penguins vs Flames predictions

• Prediction: Penguins Moneyline (+125)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (-115)
• Best bet: First Period Under 1.5 (-115)

Predictions made on 11/29/2021 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Penguins vs Flames game info

• Location: Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary, AB
• Date: Monday, November 29, 2021
• Puck drop: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SN1

Penguins vs Flames betting preview

Injuries

Penguins: Bryan Rust RW (Out), Evgeni Malkin C (Out).
Flames: Brett Ritchie RW (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Penguins vs Flames head-to-head record since 2017-18

Penguins: 4-3, 25 goals for.
Flames: 3-4, 18 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Penguins are 5-2 in their last seven games as a road underdog. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Flames.

Penguins vs Flames picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline/Puck line analysis

The Penguins are coming off a 6-3 loss to the Canadiens, which snapped a five-game winning streak. The Pens outshot the Habs 50-33 in that contest but Montreal goalie Jake Allen was outstanding, while their own second-string goaltender, Casey DeSmith, struggled between the pipes. No. 1 netminder Tristan Jarry will be back tonight and he racked up an incredible three shutouts during that five-game run.

Pittsburgh had an up-and-down start to the season with its roster hamstrung by COVID-19 and superstar center Sidney Crosby recovering from offseason wrist surgery (and then also testing positive once he returned to the lineup). But now, the Penguins are finally close to full strength (sans Bryan Rust and Evgeni Malkin). 

In his first eight games back in the lineup, Crosby notched just one goal and two assists. He equaled that output in 21 minutes of ice time against the Habs. It will be a massive boost for a Pittsburgh squad boasting a pathetic powerplay if he's rounding into form.

The Flames are also fresh off a defeat, letting a first-period lead against the Jets slip away on Saturday. That snapped a four-game winning streak for the Flames, who outscored their opponents 19-4 over that span. Calgary is allowing a league-low 2.0 goals per game and has scored at a higher clip than Pittsburgh (3.33 gpg compared to 2.90 gpg).

That said, it's hard to put too much stock in the Penguins' early-season numbers since they were missing so many starters. When it comes to other metrics, like expected goals for percentage and Fenwick For percentage at even strength, the Pens actually have a very slight edge. 

Home-ice advantage also hasn't meant much to either team this season since both have actually performed better on the road. The Pens are 5-2-2 in away games while the Flames are 3-2-3 at home. With the Pens playing well on the road, Crosby beginning to hit his stride, and how evenly matched both squads appear on paper, we're leaning towards Pittsburgh with the plus money.

Prediction: Penguins moneyline (+125)

Over/Under analysis

It's kind of insane how sizzling hot both Jarry and Markstrom have been for their respective teams. Markstrom is 8-4-4 with a 1.81 GAA, .937 save percentage, and an incredible five shutouts and we're not even in December. 

Jarry is 10-4-3 with a 1.91 GAA, .and 936 save percentage, and he has allowed a total of just two goals over his last five starts. There's no way these two can keep up this level of play long-term, but until at least one of them starts to show regression, I'm not betting against them. 

With the Under at 5-1 in Pittsburgh's last six games against Western Conference foes and the Under also 5-1 in Calgary's previous six contests versus Eastern Conference opponents, we're taking the Under 5.5. 

Prediction: Under 5.5 (-115)

Best bet

No teams have been stingier in the opening period than these two. Pittsburgh and Calgary are tied for the league lead with just 10 goals allowed in the first period through their first 21 games of the year. Expect a slower start in this one and back the Under 1.5 on the first period total. 

Pick: First Period Under 1.5 (-115)

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