Penguins vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Leafs Aim for Revenge

It’s five wins in a row and 10 in their last 11 for the Toronto Maple Leafs, who will look for a victory Saturday night against the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens embarrassed the Leafs back in October with a 7-1 shorthanded win and are nearly back to full health with captain Sidney Crosby in the lineup.

The biggest question for tonight’s game is who will Sheldon Keefe start in net for the Leafs, with a game versus the Islanders in the newly-done and likely-loud UBS Arena slated for Sunday?

Here are our free NHL betting picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs for Saturday, November 20.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Toronto opened at -170 on the ML, which puts this game at a similar price to their recent 2-1 win over the Rangers. These teams met back on Oct 23 and Toronto closed at -160, but Pittsburgh was missing a handful of key pieces. Tonight’s game opened at 6, as did the previous meeting.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs predictions

• Prediction: Leafs 3-way ML (-120)
• Prediction: Over 6 (+100)
• Best bet: Ondrej Kase Over 2.5 shots (+125)

Predictions made on 11/20/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, November 20, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SN1, CBC, ATTSN

Penguins vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Penguins: Evgeni Malkin F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Ilya Mikheyev F (Out), Petr Mrazek G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (since 2017)

Penguins: 5-5 SU, 33 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 5-5 SU, 28 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 6-0 SU in their last six vs. the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline/Puck line analysis

Toronto was at a low point in the season after their October 23 meeting with the Penguins ended in a 7-1 defeat. However, the boys from Torontah have gone 10-2 SU since and look like a different team. The Penguins are also a different-looking team since the last meeting and will have Sidney Crosby, Brandon Rust, Kris Letang and Jeff Carter in the lineup — all of whom missed the 7-1 Pittsburgh victory.

Since his return, Crosby and the Pens are 1-3 SU with that only win coming Thursday in a 6-0 blanking of the lowly Habs. Before that, they had lost to the Sabres, Senators and Capitals — not exactly dominant opponents, outside of Washington. Pittsburgh hasn’t won back-to-back games all year and is 0-5 SU following a win.

Looking at the team’s strengths, the Pittsburgh power play has scored in back-to-back games but is still statistically the worst unit in hockey. They’ll struggle to score with the man advantage as the Leafs are one of the best penalty-killing teams in the league and sport a 95 percent kill rate this month. 

Pittsburgh also sits in the middle of the league in goals for/against, is Top 10 in 5-on-5 goals scored, but Toronto is No. 1 in expected goals for at even strength. There aren’t many spots that Pittsburgh is better than Toronto. The Leafs have the advantage in special teams, can shut down the Crosby line with their No. 3 checking line, and also have the edge in goaltending.

Toronto’s Jack Campbell is the best goalie in the league right now. Since his loss to the Pens, he is 8-2 SU with a 1.39 GAA and a .956 save percentage. Both those marks pace the league. Since coming over from the Kings, Campbell is 17-3 SU when playing in Toronto (not including playoffs). Campbell has three shutouts this month alone, but the real question is whether or not he will start with the Leafs playing tomorrow. 

The Pens are league-average in net with Tristan Jarry. When he struggles, he struggles mightily. He is playing some decent hockey of late but the results haven’t followed, as he is 2-4 SU in his last six starts. 

If we knew right now that backup Joseph Woll (or ...gulp...Michael Hutchinson) were the starter, we couldn’t back the Leafs at this price. Toronto is 2-2 SU with a GAA above 4.00 in games that Campbell hasn’t started. The drop-off in talent is huge. 

If Campbell starts, we like the price of -170 and think it's 10-15 cents too short. The Leafs closed at -160 in Pittsburgh, but that line would have been closer to -140 if all the Pens had their players. That makes tonight’s game (40-cent swap from home vs away — a 20-cent advantage for home teams) projection around -180 or -185. 

If Campbell is out, the play is the Over but the Pens become live dogs at +150 and will likely drop in price if the Leafs announce a backup goalie to start. For now, we’ll take the plunge on the ML, but TOR in regulation at -120 is likely the safer play. We don’t trust this team on the puckline.  

Prediction: Maple Leafs 3-way ML (-120)

Over/Under analysis

Much like the ML, this total is very much dependent on the Leafs’ starter. Campbell is impossible to bet against right now. The Leafs are 6-12 O/U on the year, which is the second-best Under record in hockey. Campbell has allowed more than two goals just once in his last nine starts. 

The Leafs kill penalties better than anyone and draw and take penalties at some of the lowest rates in hockey. The expected goals are the highest in the league, but the truth of the matter is this team is not capitalizing on these chances, and we're a good chunk of the way into the season. Toronto sits in the bottom 10 in goals per game.

However, a lot of those Unders have been thanks to Campbell, as the Leafs are 3-0 to the Over in the last three matches where Campbell didn’t get the start. If Campbell sits, we will immediately be hitting the Over 6 (+100). If he plays, it’s the Under at 6 (-120).

With Campbell in net and the scoring struggles, the Leafs should be a 5.5 team and have proven it with their 12 Under wins in 18 games. This team dominates possession and keeps opposing teams on the outside in the defensive zone.

If Woll gets the nod, then it’s the Over for us. He looked shaky making his first NHL last week versus the Sabres in an empty arena, and playing in front of 19k at home could be even more stressful. The Leafs lead the league in turnovers/60 and Campbell usually bails them out. 

Pittsburgh is just one of six teams that allow at least 3.00 goals and score at least 3.00 goals per game. Jarry is not a goalie we trust keeping out two or fewer goals, and we're starting to lean that Toronto will go with the back-up tonight.

This price will move to the Over if Woll is announced, and if you must blindly play this total with no confirmed goalie information, we’d lean to the Over, as holding an Over 6 (+100) ticket with Jarry and Campbell isn’t terrible, but with Woll and Jarry and it’s +EV.

Prediction: Over 6 (+100)

Best bet

Ondrej Kase has been a nice surprise for the Leafs this year. The cost-effective forward has found a home driving the offense on the third line that will be responsible for watching the Crosby line tonight. Kase manages a ton of shot attempts despite starting most of his shifts in the defensive zone. 

Kase is fourth on the team in shots on goal this month and is averaging 2.77 per game. He has points in four of his last five games and has been involved with the offense all month. He hasn’t been held to under two shots in over 12 games. His floor is safe and at +125 O2.5 shots, this might be one of the safer plays with so much uncertainty in Toronto’s crease.

Pick: Ondrej Kase Over 2.5 shots (+125)

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